I am looking at the Wheat CFD on Oanda that I am trying to trade. I see that market has broken structure to the upside on the daily chart. Currently the market has given back some of the gains and is trading in the zone of the bearish fair value gap rather sluggishly. There is one candle that I have highlighted with an arrow which is a small bodied bearish candle with an above average volume as also highlighted with an arrow. This shows me that there is a volume price mismatch. My personal feeling is that this market will probably go lower towards the first green bullish fair value gap or to the second one. However, this is something I am struggling with in my trading. How do I figure out the market direction knowing there is an volume price anomaly and market structure has been broken but the market is currently in the opposite direction. If anyone could kindly assist in helping me determine potential market direction I would be grateful.
- On Friday 14th November 2025 wheat moved lower on strong volume and bounced near previous lows of $5.182 and closing at $5.194.
- The strong move lower on high volume points towards potential further downside action with a potential move lower towards $5.138 - $5.042. A break below this region would target the next bullish fair value gap zone of $4.988 - $4.939. If we see a bounce higher with strong volume in the latter range it might be a potentially good zone for a bullish bounce higher.
