I am looking at the Wheat CFD on Oanda that I am trying to trade. I see that market has broken structure to the upside on the daily chart. Currently the market has given back some of the gains and is trading in the zone of the bearish fair value gap rather sluggishly. There is one candle that I have highlighted with an arrow which is a small bodied bearish candle with an above average volume as also highlighted with an arrow. This shows me that there is a volume price mismatch. My personal feeling is that this market will probably go lower towards the first green bullish fair value gap or to the second one. However, this is something I am struggling with in my trading. How do I figure out the market direction knowing there is an volume price anomaly and market structure has been broken but the market is currently in the opposite direction. If anyone could kindly assist in helping me determine potential market direction I would be grateful.
- On Friday 14th November 2025 wheat moved lower on strong volume and bounced near previous lows of $5.182 and closing at $5.194.
- The strong move lower on high volume points towards potential further downside action with a potential move lower towards $5.138 - $5.042. A break below this region would target the next bullish fair value gap zone of $4.988 - $4.939. If we see a bounce higher with strong volume in the latter range it might be a potentially good zone for a bullish bounce higher.
- Wheat prices made a strong bullish engulfing candle yesterday on slightly above average volume.
- However, it failed to convincingly break above the bearish fairvalue gap zone with price making a wick just above it in today's price action.
- Looking at the price action and the volume of the two previous days it seems that yesterday's strong bullish candle came with only came with slightly above average volume whereas the day before's bearish candle was supported with well above average volume.
- Does this indicate potential downward price action towards the blue support line and eventually towards the bullish fair value gap zone 1?
- Wheat prices formed what appears to be a bullish spinning top candlestick on slightly above average volume on the daily chart.
- Prices failed to close above the previous day's high.
- The spinning top pattern shows market indecision and the slightly above-average volume suggests that this indecision was not a quiet pause, but rather an active and potentially important battle between buyers and sellers.
- The bullish spinning top candlestick has formed after a strong bullish engulfing candle on slightly above average volume might suggest that the bullish momentum is fading, and a reversal or consolidation period could be approaching?
- The price today also rejected the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level, which usually serves as the last line of defense.
- Wheat prices tapped the bearish fair value gap and was convincingly rejected from the 78.6% retracement level again today.
- However, the price action and volume analysis does show an anomaly. Although the bearish candle today had a large spread the corresponding volume bar shown below with the blue arrow was below average volume. This could possibly indicate that the bearish price action was not confirmed with conviction.
- Could price come down a bit lower to the $5.25 - $5.21 zone (or even from where price is now) where there are some visible bullish fair value gaps (4H) and move higher to to test the 78.6% retracement level of the bearish fair value gap on the lower timeframe (4H) between $5.408 - $5.381 and even higher?
