Whats the best way to analyse stock/forex?

[gnr2206]

How do I analyse a stock fundamental for the future?

I frequently see analysis's on CNBC, Bloomberg etc making predictions about the future of a stock but how do i make such predictions? Where can i get the data concerning a stock or how do i know which data will effect a stock?

Example:

I want to look at data such as CPI or other data and draw a conclusion from it and look at stock which will do well from this (or not well) but i dont have an idea what effects a stock in the future. Where/How do economists get the information and what should I be looking at?

I want to start a strategy that involves fundamental data because I dont believe in technical analysis in the long run.

Any advice would be greatly helped, I do economics in school so my knowledge of economics is decent enough.


Thanks

 

[Rhody Trader]

Economists generally get their information from the agency which reports the data.

 

[meanreversion]

I want to start a strategy that involves fundamental data because I dont believe in technical analysis in the long run.

Any advice would be greatly helped, I do economics in school so my knowledge of economics is decent enough.

Fundamental trading involves having deep pockets and keeping on trades for many months, with a correspondingly volatile equity curve. In other words, you will need patience and fortitude, along with a lot of money.

Most traders on this website use price action to determine their trading - why have you decided this is not profitable?

 

[cr6196]

2 ways to doing fundamental analysis of the type you mention:

top down - looking at macroeconomic information such as CPI and looking at what companies/sectors may benefit. this usually relies on some kind interpretation of greater fool theory.

bottom up - looking at individual companies for any kind of mispricing. this would involve looking at financial statements and various other sources of a similar nature. this usually involves selling buying something undervalued and selling it when it reaches "value", there are a host of problems with this. it can also involve buy and hold though, which has a whole range of problems as well.

so you can fundamental data about the economy from central banks and various public bodies for example in the UK there is BOE and National Statistics. fundemental data from companies can usually be obtained from investor relations sections on the companies website, companies in the UK file annual reports and half-year/interim reports. all of this information is open to interpretation though, none of this makes money by itself...does that answer the question?

 

[NVP]

3 things to watch in any market

price
price
price

and also keep an eye on price....

N

 

[sidra]

The best way to analyse a stock is Link Removed. It gives you a clear picture of the stock. Two approaches to carry out this analysis are top down and bottom up. In top down analysis, both national and international indicators are investigated and in bottom up method, the search starts with that specific business irrespective of region or industry.

Yeah ! I feel the same. technical analysis of stock is now an old method to evaluate a stock or Forex. Fundamental analysis have the ability to more deeper analysis that you can check with the technical analysis. :smart:

 

[neil]

Yeah ! I feel the same. technical analysis of stock is now an old method to evaluate a stock or Forex. Fundamental analysis have the ability to more deeper analysis that you can check with the technical analysis. :smart:

For a coach/trainer with a Vendor badge, you write absolute bollox. TA is not old fashioned -it is used by most of us on T2W for various types of trading as is fundemental analysis; plus both are often used on the same stock etc for planning/executing trades.

 

[wackypete2]

i think that fundamental analysis is quite wrong to predict the forex...
it's news can be manipulated and make our trade become worse..
the best ways is using EA, don use fundamental and just going with the chart..

...5 minutes earlier in another thread:

I'm newbie in fundamental of forex...
Until now, i also do not know, from where the forex moving up and down...
Is this the game that created by jorge soros??

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/eco...-what-makes-forex-go-up-down.html#post2161350

Explain please.

Peter

 

[malaguti]

...5 minutes earlier in another thread:


http://www.trade2win.com/boards/eco...-what-makes-forex-go-up-down.html#post2161350

Explain please.

Peter

he's a quick learner?:whistling

 

[PulseRes]

I never understand why traders treat fundamental analysis and technical analysis as one or the other, I use fundamental analysis mainly to determine my position size or exposure allocation and technical analysis to determine my entry and exits.

If you check out some comments of the word's top traders you'll find that they keep these two balanced.

To answer your question about the data, if you do not have access to a Bloomberg terminal all of the data can be found on the .gov websites in .csv or .xls formats.

 

[mehulsoni]

Fundamental analysis is all about the study of economic, political & social factors of any nation. The higher the currency value is, the better economy of the country is. You can have the fundamental analysis depending upon….
INTEREST RATES: Interest rates are the indicator which indicates that in a country, from where the fund will come and to where it is going to be consumed. The country which having a stronger interest rate will have a stronger & strengthened currency.
MONETARY POLICIES: Central Governments & their corresponding banking authorities formulate monetary policies to maintain the economic growth & price stability. As we saw that currency prices are affected by the interest rates...and here the interest rates are affected by the policies decided by the central government. The government decides these policies keeping in mind the inflation, money supply, bank reserve requirements etc.
TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL NEWS SOURCES: Like, Bloomberg, The Wall Street journal, Reuters provides the around the clock market coverage. Now a day many Financial T.V. network is also available. More over with the help of an economic calendar you can be prepared for this kind of fundamental changes.
ECONOMIC REPORTS: Economic Reports like The Gross Domestic Product, Industrial Production, Retail sales can also be helpful for Fundamental analysis.
At last, I would suggest you that in Forex, We cannot depend on any one kind of analysis. We have to combine Fundamental, Technical and Sentimental...all the three types of analysis for better trading in Forex.

 

[yellowfloyd]

How do I analyse a stock fundamental for the future?

I frequently see analysis's on CNBC, Bloomberg etc making predictions about the future of a stock but how do i make such predictions? Where can i get the data concerning a stock or how do i know which data will effect a stock?

Example:

I want to look at data such as CPI or other data and draw a conclusion from it and look at stock which will do well from this (or not well) but i dont have an idea what effects a stock in the future. Where/How do economists get the information and what should I be looking at?

I want to start a strategy that involves fundamental data because I dont believe in technical analysis in the long run.

Any advice would be greatly helped, I do economics in school so my knowledge of economics is decent enough.


Thanks

Prices move on a combination of multiple data points. Understanding that is key so you don’t get hung up no one piece being the answer. Examples for FX would be high inflation leading that country’s central bank to raise interest rates to curb price rises for consumer. This which would be positive for the currency as any debt the government sell would likely need to start paying a higher interest rate. This would be more attractive to traders and require them to buy that currency to be able to buy that debt. Then again you need to keep an eye on monetary policy, as some banks like the BoE right now (and for a good few years now) are permitting inflation to be above target but still keeping rates low. Watching retail/production sales data can give an idea on inflation direction which can then be supported by the inflation print itself. For stocks, GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production data for certain countries might be helpful. Like China for luxury goods or car purchases etc. As macro data moves around, though, you need to make a decision based on what you think the direction of the trend is rather than whether the most recent month’s data is good or bad. I hope this helps.