What would you buy and hold now?

[Doomberg]

Ok i'm gonna be busy as hell with work over the next 2 years so day trading won't be an option, however being busy as hell will hopefully create a nice amount of £££ to invest in stocks, anyway i have a feeling that quite a few of the markets have hit rock bottom, or are close to the bottom anyway. If you were looking to buy and hold lots of stock over the next couple of years, what would you keep your eye on and what would you buy now?

Also are: Home - SimplyStockbroking any good?

Cheers

p.s where on earth has the general section gone?

 

[tar]

Do your home work on RIMM , looks interesting to me ...

 

[tar]

General Trading Chat

 

[Doomberg]

General Trading Chat

Does anyone know why all the posts are moved and i can no longer post in there?

 

[barjon]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/news-feedback/155622-new-forum-structure.html

 

[JSChicago]

Ok i'm gonna be busy as hell with work over the next 2 years so day trading won't be an option...

"Buy and Hold" scares the crap out of me. I get the same uneasy feeling when my girlfriend asks "Do these pants make me look fat"? - I consider both to be no-win situations.

Whenever I'm in a situation that severely limits my trading time I just change up my strategy. So, I might go from (forex) doing $50.00 a pip on hour charts to $5.00 a pip on daily charts and swing trading some options that allow me to define my maximum loss. This way, I can be away from the computer for extended periods whithout stressing and having big clumps of my hair fall out.

 

[Doomberg]

Hey JSXChicargo, i did try exactly what you mentioned above... i went from 5m charts to trying swing trading this year due to lack of time... and i lost £1000's so i guess swing trading just aint for me? Some of the trades i took looked like +A trades, but my year has been diabolical

 

[malaguti]

How about Lloyds..its a P&F chart, but it speaks for itself imo

 

[Doomberg]

Mal, LLoyds / RBS and Bank of Ireland are on my short list, i started with bank stocks so i'm confident with them... and lol Bank of Ireland, i know many would not touch with a barge pole, but 20 euros per share down to 9 cents lol! Trust me, it is gonna rise

 

[JSChicago]

... i did try exactly what you mentioned above... my year has been diabolical

Sorry to hear that.

You might try buying some sturdy dividend-paying stock with a well established trading range and writing covered calls against it each month.

Since - from your post - it looks like you will have a couple of years to investigate new trading strategies, I will suggest you check out TastyTrade , I've found them very useful and you might also.

 

[malaguti]

Mal, LLoyds / RBS and Bank of Ireland are on my short list, i started with bank stocks so i'm confident with them... and lol Bank of Ireland, i know many would not touch with a barge pole, but 20 euros per share down to 9 cents lol! Trust me, it is gonna rise

RBS was on mine, but since they they changed denomination, I cant analyse via Updata..but I do remember there was great setup emerging..now though i won't bother..BOI..I'll take a look.
LLoyds, that has to break 38p first so its gonna play out a while. Thats just my analysis though...here's a longer term view of Lloyds and there is a an even larger double bottom unfolding since '09. Long ways to go even with that..but if the double bottom pans out, 144p plus bought at 38..lovely jubbly

 

[Doomberg]

Yep, i'll certainly have my eye on them... looks like a wicked trade

 

[ZaBu]

Ok i'm gonna be busy as hell with work over the next 2 years so day trading won't be an option, however being busy as hell will hopefully create a nice amount of £££ to invest in stocks, anyway i have a feeling that quite a few of the markets have hit rock bottom, or are close to the bottom anyway. If you were looking to buy and hold lots of stock over the next couple of years, what would you keep your eye on and what would you buy now?

I'm keeping an eye on the Euro shambles, US election and whether Gold can break above $1700 at the macro level.

By no means am I a fully paid up member of the Elliot Wave massive super dooper Wave C we're all doomed so let's buy tinned food, gold and silver coins and board up the windows club. However, I do think we are seeing deflationary pressure being offset by central bank QE. I have no idea which will win out so I have moved largely back to cash so I can go short or long depending on what happens next.

The only thing I'm holding at the moment is SAUP - etf short AUD, long USD denominated in $ for added va va voom.

I've got a few things on my watch lists:

Dividend watch list
VOD (just exited to take profit, will re-enter at some point).
TSCO
AV

Undervalued watch list
XRX
GENL

Long term trend watch list
FB
TSLA
DDD
SSYS

Happy to expand on my thinking on any of the above if it helps. I try to use fundamentals for things I intend to hold for a while coupled with TA to try and optimise entry/exit. It's a nice theory anyway.

Also are: Home - SimplyStockbroking any good?

Only have one ISA subscription with them but had no issues. Does exactly what it says on the tin.

 

[hgh]

Mal, LLoyds / RBS and Bank of Ireland are on my short list, i started with bank stocks so i'm confident with them... and lol Bank of Ireland, i know many would not touch with a barge pole, but 20 euros per share down to 9 cents lol! Trust me, it is gonna rise

I think euros won't be rise soon, at least in a short time.half an year, something like that.

 

[Doomberg]

ZaBu, thanks for the input 👍

And if you don't mind, can you elaborate on the stocks you have mentioned with reasons etc?

Cheers

 

[ZaBu]

Happy to elaborate Doomberg.

I won’t include all the P/E, dividend yield, etc. as I'm sure you'll be checking all that out as part of your own research and screening process.

I’ll share my top line thought process/analysis on each one.

SAUP – it’s a play on a slowdown in China. I don't know much about China and I'm not comfortable shorting a market that is still growing, just at a slower rate. This way I feel like I am more in control of the risk. I can’t see the AUD making huge gains on the USD from where it is – this keeps my risk acceptable to me. If the AUD starts to revert towards the mean, if a risk-off sentiment returns and/or a flight to safety happens then the USD is likely to gain ground on the AUD. It’s certainly not buy and hold but I am already seeing a bit of movement in my favour. If money printing resumes then I’ll be out of this like a shot.

VOD - I bought back in May and exited after it made new 52 week highs recently. However, I really like dividends and compounding so I’m looking out for a re-entry point with the aim of increasing my holding over time. Of course, the previous high is now support but we’ll see what happens. Profit is profit :smart:

I see VOD as a utility company these days and as well as the normal 5% divi there is also the chance of further Verizon special divis. If I happen to be holding at the right time then so much the better. The Verizon divi was announced Nov. last year (I think) so I have a window but I'm patient. I won't chase divis, price trumps it for me. The recent C&W acquisition also looks good for the future. On the downside, there is a risk of a retrospective tax bill in India, although with the new finance minister there common sense might prevail.

TSCO – there has been a lot written about Tesco but nobody seems to be factoring in the potential upside of a banking business – at least not in anything I have read. If Tesco can make a decent fist of banking then there seems a good chance of price upside and a 4%+ divi whilst waiting. Of course this is a very big IF. Actually, I almost pulled the trigger at around £3 but something about Tesco is niggling me and I can’t quite put my finger on it. Not very scientific I grant you and instead I’ve just watched it go up to £3.40. 😡 I’ll certainly be more decisive next time should a more attractive entry point present itself again.

AV – I’ve missed the recent bounce because I remain concerned about Eurozone exposure, the divi at around 8% looked too good to be true earlier in the year and they haven’t replaced the CEO yet. On the plus side, there seems to be a plan in place to sell off assets, strengthen cash reserves and cut costs/simplify. The final divi was held but it is more at risk than the two above IMO. I think AV has a decent chance of being a turnaround stock, assuming the business can execute properly. The turnaround potential mitigates some of the downside risk of a divi cut, at least in my mind.

XRX – is still priced as a copier company but it is well on the way to being a services and outsourcing firm (post ACS acquisition). It’s into all sorts – managing toll roads, processing health insurance claims, etc. These types of business tend to be valued differently and Xerox has not been re-priced yet. The company generates cash, is paying down debt, buying back shares and pays couple of points divi. The share price has fallen after the last two earnings calls and then hauled itself back higher. After the Q2 call in July it was down to $6.40 and is now back around $7.40. Not bad for less than a month. I’m going to watch the Q3 earnings reaction like a hawk. Anywhere close to $6.50-$6.75 and I think I would bite.

GENL – Tony Hayward of BP Deep Water Horizon infamy is running Genel. His PR skills were comical but he knows how to run an oil business. Bit of a complex history this one but worth checking out - reverse take-overs and all that. It’s producing oil in Kurdistan/Iraq and sitting on a pile of cash for investment purposes. I haven’t looked that recently but from memory the cash alone equated to about £4 or £5 a share and that is before you take into account that it is actually producing oil. To be honest I need to research this more myself but it seems promising.

FB – I know this is controversial but to me this is really very simple, once you strip out all the hype. Facebook can deliver eyeballs and that = advertising revenue. They only really have one challenge as far as I can make out; how to deal with mobile viewing of the site/web/content. The company has no choice but to solve this issue. With necessity being the mother of invention, I am betting that it will get this solved one way or another. FB has a few options for this; (i) solve it themselves, (ii) provide venture capital for someone else to solve it or (iii) buy any start-up that cracks this particular nut. Any of these routes work and I think it safe to assume that FB will get this resolved. I’ll wait for confirmation of a reversal in trend but at the right price (I have no idea what that is yet) FB would be attractive to me for the longer term.

SSYS and DDD are about the only ways to play the coming boom in 3D printing, or at least the only ways I have found. They are on trend but personally, I wouldn't allocate too much to these as there is a large element of speculation. What I don’t like are the P/E ratios, they’re very racy and the prices have been on a bit of a tear this year. I’m watching for potential entry points.

I know RIMM was mentioned earlier. My two pennies FWIW: the mgmt team there would worry the hell out of me. I can’t view RIM as a turnaround stock, the trend is 'consumerisation of IT' and consumers don't want Blackberries or Playbooks. The value for me would be in the patents but I can even see the mgmt. team being able to make a mess of selling those 😆

Hope that helps. Good luck with your research. Keep us posted – would love to know what you end up with.

 

[Doomberg]

Thanks for the great input, i've added to your reputation

I'm having a think and will keep you all posted, i may keep a journal for this 👍

 

[ZaBu]

Thanks Doomberg

 

[ZaBu]

VOD back in play after a change in price direction, will be keeping a closer eye on it for potential re-entry points

 

[james1989]

TSCO – there has been a lot written about Tesco but nobody seems to be factoring in the potential upside of a banking business – at least not in anything I have read. If Tesco can make a decent fist of banking then there seems a good chance of price upside and a 4%+ divi whilst waiting. Of course this is a very big IF. Actually, I almost pulled the trigger at around £3 but something about Tesco is niggling me and I can’t quite put my finger on it. Not very scientific I grant you and instead I’ve just watched it go up to £3.40. 😡 I’ll certainly be more decisive next time should a more attractive entry point present itself again.

Still cheap, fantastic business and a solid dividend, there is absolutely nothing wrong with Tesco, the problem is with investors who can't spot a bargain and get scared by people buying their once a year turkey in M&S.