Paz, lol, here I go assuming again. When you say 9:30 NY time, you mean the opening bell?
I don't trade the opening bell, ever. There's certainly a LOT of traders that have a good method for trading the bell, but I'm not one of them.
I trade a 2 minute chart, with a 10 minute chart for general direction. (I assume by M5 and M15 you mean a 5 minute and a 15 minute chart.) On my 2 minute chart, I have a 12-26-9 MACD, and a 9 EMA. When the MACD crosses it's MA, and or crosses it's Zero Line AND it's own MA, and price crosses or has only crossed the 9EMA by a little, I'll enter in whatever direction it's going and scalp a few points. I'm getting a little better at hanging on for 10pts, but gotta work on hanging onto a winning trade.
As for something I know as opposed to speculating, in my very humble opinion, very little in life is a concrete fact. I speculate, or as my old Chief used to say, I'll take a SWAG at it.
Scientific Wild-Assed Guess. ;-)
The opening bell can be very profitable, and if you're seeing something that appeals to your trading instincts, go for it. SIM is a great learning tool for me. I have 2 computers running every day. One's real money, and the other is on SIM.
Ian