What Happens Next

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
No, not starting a new Wot Happened Next series because it aint real

I got a random number generator to give me 100 numbers +-10 then I plotted the result from a 200 starting point.

Look familiar? Clear resistance at 220 and support at 170. Couple of 1,2,3 reversals and I daresay you could find some of your own favourites amongst it.

Interestingly a decent trader could have made money from it.

Not decrying TA - just a warning to keep it in context.
 

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Purple Brain

Experienced member
1,613 179
I was initially going to suggest you stick a 49 moving average and an ichimoku on there and that would sort it all out, but then realised it wasn’t funny.

Could be quite depressing if it hadn’t given me some comfort it’s OK to feel clueless as it’s all totally random. Probably essential to assume cluelessness in fact and keep in mind you’re just betting on raindrops on a window pane – a window pane which sometimes inverts –and don’t forget the random gusts of wind which can come from any direction too, at any time.

What’s missing though is the way each of those data points ended up where they did: there’s no OHLC and no way to drill down and tell how each data point got from O to C. I’m advised the formation of each point/candle/bar is more than half the picture.
 
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Guest36985

0 0
I'm not saying TA is 'The answer' or even saying it doesnt work, but what needs to be taken into account is human behavior.
People look for patterns in random images like clouds or even Rorschach inkblots (as celebrated by google today), its the way your brain is hard wired. Darwinism rooted out those brains that couldnt make out the face of a predator hiding in a bush.
So if 100 people look at a pattern of dots on a chart like the one shown their brain is desperately trying to make sense of it. Now imagine all of those people had been told of such a thing as bollinger bands and channel lines then they would all look at your chart and breath a sigh of relief as they had now made sense of it.
Take that one stage further and now when the dots reach the extremes they will all buy or sell at roughly the same time therefore reinforcing the 'pattern'.
There is no one right answer to Mr Market.
 
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cablemonster

0 0
No, not starting a new Wot Happened Next series because it aint real

I got a random number generator to give me 100 numbers +-10 then I plotted the result from a 200 starting point.

Look familiar? Clear resistance at 220 and support at 170. Couple of 1,2,3 reversals and I daresay you could find some of your own favourites amongst it.

Interestingly a decent trader could have made money from it.

Not decrying TA - just a warning to keep it in context.

A good post Barjon. There is decent divergence at 220 showing a good shorting opportunity. I dare say it was overbought there too.
 
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Guest36985

0 0
No, not starting a new Wot Happened Next series because it aint real

I got a random number generator to give me 100 numbers +-10 then I plotted the result from a 200 starting point.

Look familiar? Clear resistance at 220 and support at 170. Couple of 1,2,3 reversals and I daresay you could find some of your own favourites amongst it.
...

Just one more thing - if you added an 8% inflationary bias and let it run for 4 years this would fool anyone. At least I think that's what Bernanke did.
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,665 1,489
This is a snapshot of the waveform from Kalimba.mp3. It's obvious you should go long whenever the audio level dips to -10dB.

hrk5ki.png
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,766 2,101
No, not starting a new Wot Happened Next series because it aint real

I got a random number generator to give me 100 numbers +-10 then I plotted the result from a 200 starting point.

Look familiar? Clear resistance at 220 and support at 170. Couple of 1,2,3 reversals and I daresay you could find some of your own favourites amongst it.

Interestingly a decent trader could have made money from it.

Not decrying TA - just a warning to keep it in context.

the thing about random number trading models is do you keep each new bar totally uncorrelated to the previous bar generated (100% random)....or allocate a small % of correlation based on the direction and strength of the last bar ....

because in many markets people buy and sell purely on where the price starts to move .........

dont they ? :whistling
N
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,766 2,101
I must confess that each and every day I open up my charts I am reminded of the Emperors new clothes story

are we really all just worshipping something that isnt there ?

hmmmmm
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SuddenDeath

Legendary member
14,063 143
the ft offered £100,000 for anyone who could show them a ta pattern that had a tradable bias, do not think anyone collected the £100k
 

spinola

Established member
614 138
Wot No Liquidity ?

Patterns in nature are inevitable , liquidity isn't.




' There it is. '
 

Purple Brain

Experienced member
1,613 179
But there is something missing.

If barjon had plotted a set of random numbers where for each x-axis point instead of just a single data point he had given us OHLC – all randomly generated – it would look nothing like any chart any of us have ever seen or could ever exit in reality.

The thing that is missing is the intent, knowledge, expectations and aspirations of the aggregate of market participants in every instrument being traded.

Not necessarily the Invisible Hands or an Animal Spirit, but there is an intelligence in the general waveform of every instrument. That’s what I think most of us perceive and the analysis thereof from which we attempt to gain advantage.
 

spinola

Established member
614 138
Wot No Random Numbers Exchange ?

Where is the exchange for random numbers ?

Wall street? nope,

Banks? nope

Nasdaq? nope

CBOT ? nope


Camelot & The National Lottery ? Could be . I think that is. Yes.
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
An interesting chart and also comparable to a coin flip of heads/tails or a roulette wheel but without the numbers 0/00.....as it started at the number 200, it should and will, over time, come back to the number 200 as everything must balance itself out over time.....equilibrium.

For a trader to benefit would be to take advantage from the deviation from the number 200. TA would not be required.
 
 
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