GBP vs USD what next?

[nickerson334]

Out of gbpusd at 800

GBP +105
EUR -65
CAD +28
Dow - 17

Things looking up again!

Hope you got out ok hammer.

 

[hammer]

Didnt hear the news got out with a heavy loss of 44 ticks

 

[nickerson334]

I didn't either, was watching MTV. Thing is Hammer to keep your stops tight. If you're looking for 20 -40 point profits.......hang on will post earlier message about those profit target ranges. It worked for me (80 pips per week) but I found it too intense. Will stop you from taking those kind of loses though.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Try this. Target 35 points or next line of resistance with a point by point trail stop . So if you've got a good entry signal you buy in, set your profit limit at +35 (min 25 points say) then for every point it moves up trail your stop loss up a point starting at -35.

If your trade moves up 15 ticks your maximum loss is now -20. I've successfuly strategised like that using DT, H&S and Flags.

Obviously you'd have to research it yourself with your own entry signals but it would solve your problem as your maximum loss would be 35 ticks although that would be very rare. Account balance hopefuly looking somewhat like as follows.

+28
-14
-12
+35
-9
-22
+31
+22
-18
+25
+20
-14
+22
-28
-9
+35
+17

----------------------------------

Refer you to later message though about longer breakouts and highe P;L ratio.


Sorry if I'm coming accross as a smart **** and there's defo no 'right' way to trade. I'm just trying to point you in the right direction as a score card that reads..

+20
+10
-30
+4
-44
+8
-28
-32
+35
-12
+11....etc.

needs strategy development.

Hope you're cool!

 

[hammer]

Think i might try that, or come up with some system that i can stick to. Haven't found anything that works for me yet. Feel like giving up for the day after that, but unsure whether to hang around for a correction. GBP still climbing though.

 

[nickerson334]

Yeah, my first 18 months I lost $15,000. It's only in the last 6 that I've made consistent profits and into the black.

Anyhow I'm out of the cad now with +117 total on the week so I'm over and out. In london Mon and Tues so cu a week from now I hope.

All the very best.

david

 

[hammer]

Cool see you soon david. Im long on GBP at 1.8838, try to make something of this run

 

[hammer]

New week, new day!

Im long on GBP at 1.8964. :cheesy:

 

[al-motor]

Hammer,

u should be ok today -after the nice move up.............I missed unfortunartely !

 

[hammer]

Sorry my bad, meant to write 1.9064. Looks like i've just made a 100 points! Well no so far im down 2! Think im still asleep. Try to catch a few points of the bull run. Didn't catch the run this morning either.

Should hopefully get 10-20 points out of it.

 

[al-motor]

oh right ! ther eis me thinking u already had some nice profits !!

But entering at 9064 would be a bit risky IMO, since we have had a big rise-

anyway...........i missed, so i cant talk ! hope it carries on up for your sake .......... what kind of a stop loss do u have ?

 

[hammer]

Yea it is risky so i wanna get out quick with small profit. Stop is at 1.9044, risking only 20 points. It is at bottom of up channel at the moment, the top is at 1.9085. That will be my exit. (if it reaches it!)

 

[hammer]

Went out, just got back. Limit triggered at 1.9084 for 20 points profit. Long again at 1.9044 looking for another 20 points maybe 30.

 

[hammer]

sold gbp at 1.9046 for only 2 points profit. Think uptrend is still in tact but will stay out of market till i get a clear entry signal.

 

[hammer]

total for today is +34 points, that is:

-6
+20
+2
+18

Not many trades but careful ones.

Still long on the GBP at 1.9064 will close before it rolls over to the next day prob with no profit.

 

[hammer]

Oops i meant long at 1.9045, just closed at 1.9050 for 5 points profit. So total for the day is +39. Not great but at least im up.

 

[Zenda]

[19:56 GMT February 18] Cable staged a full-fledged reversal today, slipping
sharply off its highs at 1.9140, careening back below 1.9000 and falling to
1.8875 before stalling. Carnage was widespread with this morning's hawkish MPC
minutes reinforcing the notion that more rate hikes are ahead and the rally in
EUR/USD above 1.2900 further egging on the GBP bulls.
Profit-taking accelerated as Cable dipped below 1.9030 late in London, and
1.9000 soon fell by the wayside. A final downdraft to 1.8875 was fueled by
comments from BOE Deputy Governor Lomax who suggested future rate hikes are not
a sure thing, specifically mentioning March, though most have targeted the next
hike for May. The internet may be restraining prices and the BOE is not
targeting house prices, she said. The latter comment hurt the pound particularly
hard as many had assumed that housing prices were a focus of the MPC.
1.8870 support was tested and held, while further key support is eyed at
1.8790, where this most recent rally began. 1.9000/10 should cap rallies in the
near-term. [email protected]/rd

 

[hammer]

Im just bored thought i do a bit of TA on the gbp. As we see from Wednesday onwards its fallen like 500 pips from 1.9145 to 1.8600. When will it turn back?

Well from the graph attached i see two channels. It has now moved into the second channel and has stayed within it quite neatly in my opinion. Currently it is at the bottom of the channel which means it should go up! But will it? It may yet take a bounce off the 40 day SMA at 1.8550. I will personally be looking for a long on Monday on a March contract but won't enter it unless i see a reversal pattern. Or i will enter but only for a 50 - 100 pip profit on a cash bet. Trailing stop firmly in place.

Pls take a look at the graph and tell me what you guys think.

Thanks :cheesy:

PS. Im sorry bout attaching it as a file. Can someone tell me how to post it in my reply for ppl to see on the page itself?

 

[Buk]

Hammer, had the same probs meself with transporting pics onto the thread....Darrenf kindly offered the solution............

reduce window size first (top right of window/between minimise & close)

place cursor on edge of the window to adjust width, height etc.....

press 'alt & print screen' together to capture the window image

open it in either word or paint programme & edit it with accompanying text/lines

save it....then click browse on the your 'reply to message' tab & post!!!!

if you zoom into the shorter time frame, ( 5 & 15 min) you'll see a channel boundary currently in place with 8560 & 8630 offering potential action points. The hourly frame will indicate the near term supp/resist levels, namely 8500 & 8420 south......8665/8700 & 8740 north (should it get this far - there are also a couple of Fib numbers around this area from the high/low range of Friday's move down) ....I guess the overnight will reveal a clearer picture, but for me, those are the area's I'll be looking for to either short further or consider retrace longs!.....we all have different points of engagement, I'd just prefer to see a little more daylight between the lows & any potential upswing.....looks to be plenty of room to jump on board for the trip north, maybe I'm getting slower with age?? or is it just the 'vicious slaps' of the market I don't like.... think I'll let you wild cowboy's kick the dust up, and I'll sidle up & climb aboard Dobbin for the more sedate canter!!! good luck!

 

[nickerson334]

I think the E/$ will form bottom right here at 1.2470 then zoom right back up!

 

[Buk]

not too much damage overnight....flirted with the Feb 3 - 6th support at 8422, and popped up above a 50% Fib (8481) from the 20th Jan kick up......maybe a consolodation period here will offer it northbound legs!......plenty of Yankee eco news out this week, but the only U.K news comes Wed (2nd release of the 4th Q GDP) & euro consumer confid.....the usual Fed Chiefs ramblings this week to the Senate.