T2W Bot

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The end of 2007 was characterized by extreme values in various indicators of stock market analysis. In this article I will review and analyze four of them. I will use the term ?indicator? here not necessarily according to the technical analysis jargon but rather as a set of clues (either measurable or not) under the same idea which can reveal specific internals of the stock market and imply bullish or bearish projections.
The First Indicator: Commercials Versus Small SpeculatorsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases weekly information known as Commitment of Traders (or simply COT) report about various markets which can be used to approximate the net open interest for futures and options in each of the following three categories of market participants: Commercial Hedgers, Large Speculators and Small Speculators. The commercial hedgers (or simply commercials) are those who use the markets for hedging while the speculators are those who try to profit from the market...
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Excellent article Giorgos, certainly up to your regular standard. My only comment is that insider buying especially in rallies is far more accurate than trying to interpret insider selling for one very good reason. Insiders often rely on stock options and restricted stock that becomes free trading as part of their income so high levels of selling more often coincide with quarter ends when they are allowed to sell as opposed to dumping shares because they think challenging times are ahead for the company.

Insider buying on the other hand is done for two reasons. 1) more commonly they are prepared to trade real money for shares when they believe their company's stock has a high potential for appreciation or 2) they are trying to fool the public into believing that insiders have great faith in the prospects of the company by buying a few thousand shares...
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