Welles wilder Delta phenomenon

rog1111

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Jan 30, 2004
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#2
I read this years ago, and couldn't see the logic in it, the cycles seemed far too open to interpretation, but I've never tried to trade with it.

rog1111

Peter said:
Has anyone had any sucess with Welles wilders Delta phenomenon.

I just bought the book ?
 
Jul 10, 2003
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#3
Peter I used it for a while (about a year) and had as many wins as losses. So with good money management, you could do OK.

However, although I enjoyed the basis of the research, in practise, it's largely untradeable.

Couple that with the EXTREMELY subjective interpretations of turning points and inversions from the DSI monthly newsletter AND that fact that we in the UK get it 6 weeks late AND that it takes a lot of mucking around to switch the HIGH-LOW points on what seems little more than a whim from Wilder Central in order to match the performance of the system with reality and you're better off tossing a coin.

I'm not disputing the possibility that the underlying basis of Delta has substance - not at all.

There's also the issue of the UK representative who markets it. A bit short on personal communications skills...

However, it's a good read and the software is fun to play with.
 

Peter

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#4
Thks for your comments on Delta Tony,

So far I get the impression that your interpretation may be right.

I also had problems getting a reply from The UK rep. So far I havent had any replies to my questions on Delta.

I was trying to decide if its worth the effort of further study.
Regards
Pete


TheBramble said:
Peter I used it for a while (about a year) and had as many wins as losses. So with good money management, you could do OK.

However, although I enjoyed the basis of the research, in practise, it's largely untradeable.

Couple that with the EXTREMELY subjective interpretations of turning points and inversions from the DSI monthly newsletter AND that fact that we in the UK get it 6 weeks late AND that it takes a lot of mucking around to switch the HIGH-LOW points on what seems little more than a whim from Wilder Central in order to match the performance of the system with reality and you're better off tossing a coin.

I'm not disputing the possibility that the underlying basis of Delta has substance - not at all.

There's also the issue of the UK representative who markets it. A bit short on personal communications skills...

However, it's a good read and the software is fun to play with.
 

DaveJB

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#5
It has good and bad about it, one resolution of the turning point inversion 'on a whim' is not to bother - the day should show a trend reversal, so as long as you know which way it's going so far.... <g>
Far more of a problem, in my view, is that there's no telling how far the move ought to go, it is far to easy to bail out far too early or late and produce a loss whilst 20:20 hindsight shows what appears to be completely obvious signals.
I'd have to say that it is quite expensive to buy into, the book costs enough but the membership is rather higher, and I can't say it adds noticeably to ones trading armoury. It's clever, and you can see it working quite often, but turning that into a profit is far from easy - when you think about it picking the trader is almost the easiest part of it all, timing the exit is much harder in my view and you cannot just let Delta run point to point with your money attached.
Delta's own newsletter writer seems to have very mixed luck with it, he is presumably spending 24/7 trying to get it right - I have to agree with Tony's general theme here, it's clever but it's not particularly useful.

Dave
 
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#7
A cycle based system which allocates different cycle periods to different stock (and indices) sectors.

There are a number of High and Low points (different numbers for most sectors) which are a designated and fixed(-ish) period of time apart.

This, in principal, gives a trader the 'edge' in determining trend changes, especially when Long, Medium and Intermediate points converge.
 

DaveJB

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#8
Welles Wilder (he of RSI fame, etc) met a chap who claimed he could predict markets, who then persuaded WW he could indeed do that. WW seems to have bought the chap out (Jim Sloman, or soemthing like that) as the chap is now selling a different system that is, presumably, even better.

WW markets Delta via his own website/company, who will expalin it all in a book for nearly £200, you'll then realise it's extremely painful to try to do it manually (not least because finding the turning points isn't as easy as you might hope) and that you need the software - buying into all of that is a over a grand, it then costs a couple of hundred a year to maintain.

Essentially the system predicts dates when the market, share, commodity price chart will change direction - turning points. Each market is geared up to turn according to a set of points long predetermined, and spookily enough when you see the charts in action you'll find a good many that seem to fit pretty well, You'll also find 'point 1' in the series suddenly becoming apparent in the noise, and realise many points do in fact occur awfully close to prediction, and repeatedly. The question is whether 'repeatedly' equals 'often enough', how close is close, and a small problem where the chart turns upside down occasionally.

(That last point sounds more facetious than intended <g>)
I don't want to bad mouth it, it's one of those things where you will believe it's more than mere fancy - the points occur as planned quite often - I've yet to encounter anyone who is making if pay, but it's marketted as totally hush hush so you won't find a lot of charts posted for example.

Dave
 

DaveJB

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#10
Crikey,
there IS a lot on there, isn't there! (Included most of T2W and the Delta book.... bet that made Welles splutter over his coffee!)
Dave
 

chump

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#11
Mr Welles won't have been getting poor from his contribution to the trading industry 'must haves' so I dare say he can afford another cup of c ...
 
Oct 19, 2004
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#12
DaveJB said:
Welles Wilder (he of RSI fame, etc) met a chap who claimed he could predict markets, who then persuaded WW he could indeed do that. WW seems to have bought the chap out (Jim Sloman, or soemthing like that) as the chap is now selling a different system that is, presumably, even better.
I presume by another system you mean Ocean Theory. Does anyone have any actual experience of using Ocean Theory or gone on the course?
 

a320

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#13
I've never know anyone be sued over what could be classified a natural cyclical occurrence... :eek: :D ))

But as BB says...Steve Copan should be liking the interested generated on that Tactical Thread ;)

Peter said:
I also had problems getting a reply from The UK rep. So far I havent had any replies to my questions on Delta.
Maybe try asking about Nexus...
:devilish:
 
Last edited:
Jan 5, 2008
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Guys,

I bought it, it is very difficult to trade, however I have got Jim's other Ocean stuff, which looks quite good, they sort of use normalised prices. Don't ask me for the formula because it was more expensive then delta. Ocean does not give any timing but from what I can see gives some pretty fast and accurate indicators. I am going to revisit delta and try to crack it again, your turning points should be able to be given by your ocillators.

Regards

Sony
 
Jan 5, 2008
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#15
I presume by another system you mean Ocean Theory. Does anyone have any actual experience of using Ocean Theory or gone on the course?
Yes I am using it, it is very very expensive, with no details on how to trade it, you get a couple of basic indicators plus some theory.

Having said that those indicators I think are good, they are very adaptive, I managed to code some of them in Amibroker, they are good. Sorry I can't share them I don't think that it would be fair on Jim who is a good guy.

But I can say, he has figured out a way to look at all time frames at the same time and normalises the price idependently of timeframe, pretty impressive, and you using this as the price indictor and in any other indicators, I have modified Ehlers adaptive indicators and B Bands, SAR to use this, it is very quick. Still trialling it though, I can't say I have proven it.