Weekly Report by Vandle

[vandleb]

Hi everyone.
I'm going to share my trading journey and the technical analysis of forex majors in this thread every weekend.

 

[vandleb]

AUD/USD

In the short term, AUD/USD does't have a clear trend. Thus, you can make the Long or Short orders in the short term.
But in the long term, especially in the daliy timeframe, AUD/USD has high possibility to fall.

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USD/CAD

This week, USD/CAD did not have a clear trend. But in the coming weeks, USD/CAD has high possibility to rise. If next Monday and Tuesday USD/CAD fall, it will be a good chance to buy USD/CAD.


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[vandleb]

EUR/USD

EUR/USD, Weekly

EUR/USD, Daily
Also, EUR/USD didn't have a clear trend in the small timeframes like H4 and H1. EUR/USD rose this week, but it is clear that there is a resistance in daily and weekly timeframes. Thus in the coming weeks, if the EUR/USD rise firstly, it is good chance to sell EUR/USD!


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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD H4
In daily timeframe, the structure of GBP/USD is not good. So, GBP/USD did not have a clear trend in daily timeframes after this five days. But in 4 hours chart, it is possible to have a trend at the white arrow. Let's wait for the new trend.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY H4
I don't know if you catch the trend at the red arrow. Actually, it is a very good chance to sell USD/JPY. But I miss this chance
Because I did not open a new order on the first Firday of each month. Now, I need to reconsider this rule.
Okay, let' s see the daily chart. In the daily timeframe, it is clear that USD/JPY will stop falling. Please don't make a new sell order in the small timeframes.

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XAU/USD

XAU/USD Weekly

XAU/USD H4
XAU/USD did not have a clear trend in daily chart.But in the weekly chart, we can see that it is no easy to fall. Thus if there is a chance to buy XAU/USD in smaller timeframes, it will be a good resonance. According to the 4 hours chart, the chance appears now!

 

[vandleb]

SP500

The downward trend finished on Firday. In daily timeframe, it is a very good structure. If you left the market due to US-China trade war this week, you can come back tomorrow. Also, if you use small timeframes to trade, your new long position will surprise you.

 

[vandleb]

The market was very good this week! S&P500 and USDJPY were out of my plan due to the Sino-US trade war on Monday. The others are within expectation.

 

[vandleb]

AUD/USD

In the short term, AUD/USD does't have a clear trend. Thus, you can make the Long or Short orders in the short term.
But in the long term, especially in the daliy timeframe, AUD/USD has high possibility to fall.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD,Daily

AUDUSD,Weekly
This Week, AUD/USD fell down in daily timeframe within expectation.I did not find the suitable chance to open the short position. I don't think it is a pity, because I trust my system all the time.As we can see in the daily timeframe and weekly timeframe, the down trend is clear.In the next week, if there is a good opportunity to open the sell order in the small timeframes like H1 and H4, I will sell the AUDUSD without hesitating. But when the price of AUDUSD is near the white line, I will recondier my strategy.The candle pointed by a white arrow is the resistance of the daliy timeframe and the weekly timeframe, respectively.

 

[vandleb]

USD/CAD

This week, USD/CAD did not have a clear trend. But in the coming weeks, USD/CAD has high possibility to rise. If next Monday and Tuesday USD/CAD fall, it will be a good chance to buy USD/CAD.

USDCAD

USDCAD,Daily
In the daily timeframe, USDCAD released the energy on Monday. Though there is a strong resistance in the daily timeframe, USD/CAD has high possibility to rise.

 

[vandleb]

EUR/USD

EUR/USD, Weekly

EUR/USD, Daily
Also, EUR/USD didn't have a clear trend in the small timeframes like H4 and H1. EUR/USD rose this week, but it is clear that there is a resistance in daily and weekly timeframes. Thus in the coming weeks, if the EUR/USD rise firstly, it is good chance to sell EUR/USD!

EURUSD

EURUSD, Daily
As what I mentioned last week, I opened a sell order on Monday according to my system. However, I only got a little profit due to the market fluctuation on Wednesday. Fortunately, there was another opportunity for short position on Thursday.
After five consecutive days of declines，EUR/USD released most of its energy. Although the euro is now about 60-70% chance of falling basing on my system, a 60-70% chance is pointless in the forex market. The down trend will be confirmed in the small timeframes like H1 and H4. Thus, if you have short position in eruo now, you can hold it and wait for the new down trend.

 

[vandleb]

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD H4
In daily timeframe, the structure of GBP/USD is not good. So, GBP/USD did not have a clear trend in daily timeframes after this five days. But in 4 hours chart, it is possible to have a trend at the white arrow. Let's wait for the new trend.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4

GBPUSD, Daily

GBPUSD, Weekly
The pound had a new trend at the white arrow as what I mentioned last week. Also, I did not open the short position because I could not find a suitable opportunity in the small timeframes. The GBPUSD has fallen a lot because of the news on British exit for this week.It is possible to form a new trend in the next two weeks according to the candles structure in the weekly chart. Thus, it is a key position. If you focus on short-term trading, I suggest you seize the opportunity to sell pound when your trading system also provides the signal. If you are a long-term trader, waiting is a good choice.

 

[vandleb]

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY H4
I don't know if you catch the trend at the red arrow. Actually, it is a very good chance to sell USD/JPY. But I miss this chance
Because I did not open a new order on the first Firday of each month. Now, I need to reconsider this rule.
Okay, let' s see the daily chart. In the daily timeframe, it is clear that USD/JPY will stop falling. Please don't make a new sell order in the small timeframes.

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4

USDJPY, Daily

USDJPY, Weekly
Last week, I mentioned that the USDJPY would stop falling down. But the Sino-US trade war caused the yen to continue to fall.
In the four hours timeframe, it is clear that the yen bulit the bottom. It means that the yen does not have a clear trend in the small timeframes. I will focus on whether the Zone One and the Zone Two constitute the new trend. And the key of the new trend is in the daily chart.

 

[vandleb]

XAU/USD

XAU/USD Weekly

XAU/USD H4
XAU/USD did not have a clear trend in daily chart.But in the weekly chart, we can see that it is no easy to fall. Thus if there is a chance to buy XAU/USD in smaller timeframes, it will be a good resonance. According to the 4 hours chart, the chance appears now!

XAUUSD

XAUUSD, H4

XAUUSD, Daily

XAUUSD, Weekly
As what I mentioned last week, I opened a long position in the four hours timeframe and I took profit at the green line. Actually, the reversal appeared in the 15 minutes chart. Thus, in the long term, the gold does not have a clear trend. For the short-term traders, if the gold falls about five dollars first in the next week, it is a good chance to buy gold in the small timeframes. (Always remember that your system also provides the signal.)

 

[vandleb]

SP500

The downward trend finished on Firday. In daily timeframe, it is a very good structure. If you left the market due to US-China trade war this week, you can come back tomorrow. Also, if you use small timeframes to trade, your new long position will surprise you.

SP500

SP500, Daily

SP500, Weekly
On the Monday, I opened a long position according to my system, and stopped loss due to the US-China trade war.
Now, SP500 does not have a clear trend. But I will also focus on it because the stucture is good. Let's wait for the new trend.

 

[vandleb]

Good article. Hope you get some insight.

How to Break Bad Trading Habits and Follow Your Rules

It isn't making money on each trade that counts, but sticking to the rules of a trading plan that works.

www.investopedia.com

 

[vandleb]

Today, the market is quiet. As I focus on the long-term trading. Sometimes, I feel like I'm fishing rather than trading.What I can do everyday is backtesting. Maybe I should not complain. I am going to backtest my system in the next six months, from 2008 to 2019, including EURUSD, GBPUSD and XAUUSD. In a sense, backtesting the trading system is the main job of traders.
Good night.
GMT+8.

 

[vandleb]

XAUUSD, Daily

XAUUSD, Weekly
As what I mentioned last week, I opened a long position in the four hours timeframe and I took profit at the green line. Actually, the reversal appeared in the 15 minutes chart. Thus, in the long term, the gold does not have a clear trend. For the short-term traders, if the gold falls about five dollars first in the next week, it is a good chance to buy gold in the small timeframes. (Always remember that your system also provides the signal.)

As what I mentioned, the gold falls down about five dollars and the chance of short-term long position appears. But according to my system, it is not a clear trend now basing on the four hours timeframe.

 

[vandleb]

AUD/USD

AUDUSD,Daily

AUDUSD,Weekly
This Week, AUD/USD fell down in daily timeframe within expectation.I did not find the suitable chance to open the short position. I don't think it is a pity, because I trust my system all the time.As we can see in the daily timeframe and weekly timeframe, the down trend is clear.In the next week, if there is a good opportunity to open the sell order in the small timeframes like H1 and H4, I will sell the AUDUSD without hesitating. But when the price of AUDUSD is near the white line, I will recondier my strategy.The candle pointed by a white arrow is the resistance of the daliy timeframe and the weekly timeframe, respectively.

AUDUSD

This week, I could not find a suitable structure to open the short position.
According to lastest charts, I will open the long position in the short term.

 

[vandleb]

USDCAD

USDCAD,Daily
In the daily timeframe, USDCAD released the energy on Monday. Though there is a strong resistance in the daily timeframe, USD/CAD has high possibility to rise.

USDCAD

The USDCAD is in a key position because the structure of daily timeframe is ready to have a new trend.
Thus, in the next week, I will focus on the USDCAD.

 

[vandleb]

EURUSD

EURUSD, Daily
As what I mentioned last week, I opened a sell order on Monday according to my system. However, I only got a little profit due to the market fluctuation on Wednesday. Fortunately, there was another opportunity for short position on Thursday.
After five consecutive days of declines，EUR/USD released most of its energy. Although the euro is now about 60-70% chance of falling basing on my system, a 60-70% chance is pointless in the forex market. The down trend will be confirmed in the small timeframes like H1 and H4. Thus, if you have short position in eruo now, you can hold it and wait for the new down trend.

EURUSD

This week, I opened another short position on Wednesday and closed all the short positions on Thursday.
Although the euro is not easy to fall down in the short term basing on daily chart, I will wait for the confirmation in the small timeframes.

 

[vandleb]

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4

GBPUSD, Daily

GBPUSD, Weekly
The pound had a new trend at the white arrow as what I mentioned last week. Also, I did not open the short position because I could not find a suitable opportunity in the small timeframes. The GBPUSD has fallen a lot because of the news on British exit for this week.It is possible to form a new trend in the next two weeks according to the candles structure in the weekly chart. Thus, it is a key position. If you focus on short-term trading, I suggest you seize the opportunity to sell pound when your trading system also provides the signal. If you are a long-term trader, waiting is a good choice.

GBPUSD

This week, the pound rallied in the four hours chart. It is not clear trend for the sterling in the short term.
However, the resistence of the up trend is clear.Thus, my strategy for the sterling is to wait.

 

[vandleb]

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4

USDJPY, Daily

USDJPY, Weekly
Last week, I mentioned that the USDJPY would stop falling down. But the Sino-US trade war caused the yen to continue to fall.
In the four hours timeframe, it is clear that the yen bulit the bottom. It means that the yen does not have a clear trend in the small timeframes. I will focus on whether the Zone One and the Zone Two constitute the new trend. And the key of the new trend is in the daily chart.

USDJPY

As what I mentioned last week, the yen constitued the new downtrend in the zone two.Although the structures of the yen in all small timeframes are weak, the structure in the weekly timeframes is not good for yen. I need another confirmation in the daily chart or weekly chart in the coming few weeks.
According to the weekly chart, I will open the short position if a chance appears in the small timeframes.