Weekly Parameters & Test Trades

[7thSignalTrader]

Revenue Target (mistake corrected)

Actually, CJ – I made a mistake.

The Revenue Target (posted before the move as 50% of trade cost basis of $1,200.00) was struck not once as I incorrectly posted – but, it was struck twice.

The first strike of RT came at 12/22/04 during the 0100hr pacific bar. It then struck through that level again at 12/22/04 during the 0500hr pacific bar. It has ping’d the revenue target of 50% of cost basis several times since then.

I’m still waiting on my Trade Target. My stop was $1.3338 and represented about 50% of my last trade’s profit. That way, if this trade went bad, I’d still be ahead of schedule on the 56 trade revenue model to $1 million. So, either way – this is a no lose trade scenario.

A 70 pip draw-down seems a bit high (just my opinion). Do you always trade with such large draw-down factors?

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Trade Time Frame

CJ,

Still waiting for your "time-frame". Do you have one for this trade, or are you holding Short indefinitely?

 

[cj12]

CJ,

Still waiting for your "time-frame". Do you have one for this trade, or are you holding Short indefinitely?

What im looking for is a target of 1,3277 stop is 1,3432, from short 1,3362 I give this trade 1 more day as it's Christmas. This must be effecting the price action on the eur.usd.Also I don't trade forex, I usually trade the Dow or s&p,I get more clues when trading these instruments

But for this study I will give signals on the eru.usd and compare it with your more complex method. On my first live trade I said go long at 1,3255 target 1,3390, for 135 points. Trade 2 is short from 1,3362 stop 1,3432 target 1,277.

To date
Trade 1, Profit 135 points
Trade 2 still running

TV on your trades to keep score give the points you make or lose, It's easier to keep score.
CJ
,

 

[dwt1020]

CJ

Could you clarify your eur/usd trade...

Short @ 1,3362
s/l is at 1.4320 ????? or should that read 1,3420.....
target is 1.2770

 

[cj12]

dwt1020

I have just edited my last post above, But basically On trade 2 im short form 1,3362. target 1,3277 stop 1,3432


CJ

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Cj

CJ,

“TV on your trades to keep score give the points you make or lose, It's easier to keep score.”
-------------------------

CJ, I really don’t mean this to be funny or anything, but I really don’t lose money on my trades unless I get hit by adverse news without parity (meaning the news does not allow a recovery under system rules).

I really cannot remember the last time I lost money on a trade. I think it was back in September of this year and it only happened because there was a new vector that blew my position out of the water. I had already made 75 pips on the trade and then BOOM, like a speeding freight train, some over-night news vector wiped out my 75 pip gain and left a 200 pip loss. Of course, when that happens, I always re-check my Price Structure and sure enough it had been annihilated. It still had a small bit of structure left, so I road it back up to a 112 pip loss over 5 days. Prior to that, I had a loser again on news back in April of 2004. That one was a 175 pip loss followed by a 127 pip recovery for a total loss of 48 pips.

Seriously – when I trade, I rarely lose money as you are learning right now. Typically, CJ – I am more concerned with whether or not I can remain on schedule with my Revenue Model. So, my concerns are whether or not I can actually strike the 50% minimum and then go on to nail a 100%+ trade. Those are the typical concerns that I have.

It might sound bizarre to you now – but the three (3) trades that I have already posted on this forum (in various forms – not always the same form) should be a good indication of what I am talking about.

Lastly, I won’t be here long enough to engage you in a trading duel. Remember, I put this challenge out there once before for Bramble and he disappeared from the Forex folder for a couple of days – he basically ran away. Now, all he does is take pot shots at a trading system that escapes him. That’s ok – I understand his type – been there done that and they have always run away faking it.

I must say that it was nice to see you step up to the plate (although too late) and put your trades on the line like that. Takes guts to go online and make live calls and then stand behind them. Takes guts and a good system to actually have them turn out the way you projected. So, I applaud you for doing so. However, I’ve basically seen what I needed to see on this board and since there are no more relevant questions on the system, I will be resigning this place.

I just thought I would take you up on one trade to see what your system could do – this was never about you or about me – it was always about “the system”. Other people seem to like to get personal when they are fearful of something – I would prefer to keep things on the “system” level. Of course, when you get hit by all kinds of irrational gibberish that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China (or, more precisely the price of the EURUSD – pun intended), then you have a tendency to try to correct the insanity that you see being thrown your way.

I don’t think that you are one of them CJ. Remember – good trading is not about “trading at all” – it is about good decision making based on a reliable premise. If you can build a “good premise” for the “decision” to enter the trade into your system, then you will have something that people will envy you for. It is all about the premise - everything else is junk.

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Target Update

EURUSD
12/22/04

Begin Update:

Currently Long from $1.3363
Current Close $1.3393

Dynamically Adjusted Long Target $1.3452
Dynamically Adjusted Short Target $1.3331
Target Delta 121
Omega 120 (daily)
TDO Ratio 1.008

End Update:


Notes:

Now trading above the Horizon (Meridian). As long as the close price remains above the meridian (daily) the price action should be steady to the upside. If close price moves below the meridian (daily), super volatility will be the norm - just like last session.

 

[Kardinal]

If I read your Update correctly, you have just successfully taken the 30 pips target from '63 to '93 within 4 hours (depending on when you entered and exited the trade)... In fact there seemed to be a second opportunity to repeat this trade a few hours later!

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Kardinal

Kardinal,

Yes, I could have. It is nice to have exit options when you trade – no doubt.

However, even though I am comparing this one trade with CJ, I am still developing my system and part of that development process is to test it against the revenue model. I used to be a round-trip trader, scalper, gap trader, bottom-up trader, top-down trader, etc. I experimented with many different styles. At some point, however, I needed to develop a style that was based upon what my system was capable of.

Many people do it in a much less efficient way – they force a particular style of trading on a certain system, or methodology. That has never worked for me long-term. I began analyzing the system and developing a style based on what the system was doing and not what “I” wanted to do. In other words, I try to take what the market is willing to give.

I’m on a 56 trade mission right now. I don’t just trade the markets – I trade to a specific financial goal long-term. I have several of these goals/missions. I have mission profiles for: $1 million, $50 million, $150 million (critical mass), $1 billion, and $20 billion.

I’ve already done the $1 million mission several times in a demo account and three times in a real account. So, I feel pretty competent and comfortable on that level.

I have done the $50 million profile only once in a demo account and none of the other missions have been attempted. In my model it takes 56 trades to pull $1 million plus, and using that as start-up capital for the next mission it takes 87 trades to take-out the $51 million plus level. This is all based on my 30/50/100 protocol (already described several times) and a trading system that can keep me above the 93% accuracy rating for at least 90% of the number of trades required to complete the mission.

You can think of what I am doing as training for the Olympics and I need to make sure that everything works right before the games begin (real cash). The real target will be 10 to 11 figures. So one needs to be proficient at what they do in order to attain that level of success (my opinion).

So, what I’m doing now is working my way through each of these missions until I get really comfortable with them and they become routine mission assignments for me. I don’t want my first assault on a real $50M balance to be the very fist time through. So, I will practice the assaults first, before taking down the targets (no different than what tactical military team would do). That will help to build confidence and a steady hand when it comes to pulling the trigger on a $13.5 million trade, or a whole lot more.

Therefore, I’ll be riding out this particular trade until I get an opposing signal (I may or may not be around here for he update to the current signal).

This will provide the continual confirmation that the system is in fact trading from signal to signal – which is the way I designed the system to work. It should flow smoothly even though there is severe market volatility right now. The market can be volatile (like it is right now) but the system was designed to remain stable within reason. However, a bad news day (worse than a bad hair day) could blow all of this warm and fuzzy feeling right out of the water.

That is why I dislike “strong” news so much in any form good or bad. It is too darn unpredictable and its impact is very hard to measure before hand.

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Revenue Target Struck

Current net profit: 142%
Profit Performance: 284% of target

This was trade number 13 of 56. I needed 50% net gain to remain on target per the model for $1+ million after 56 trades.

If I exit right here given the performance of this trade, the next trade according to the model would be number 15 of 56, leaving 41 trades remaining having achieved 26.78% of the mission plan to $1.014 million. I've been on the model for approximately 1.75 weeks moving $1,000 to now just shy of $6,300 (this typing).

I think that CJ's STOP has just been hit. Sorry, CJ - you’re out of this one, but I think you have a change to make it up on your next call.

Right now, I'm:

266+% on the first trade
250+% on the third trade
142+% on the current trade

Zero losses at 100% accuracy to target thus far. You can clearly see how the time-line gets compressed on the way to a 56 trade total. The system jumped from trade number 6 to 9, then to 13 and now 15 if I exit right now. That is the beauty of geometric growth with a reliable trading system.

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Stop Update

Locked in $1.3388 stop to protect 50% net gain minimum requirement on 25 pips.

25 pips X 24 per pip value = $600.00 = 50% minimum design requirement (MDR) on a $1,200 trade (or, ~30% of account balance at start of trade number 13).

 

[wisestguy]

these are all fantasy trades , who gives a monkeys . do it for real , if you can.


EDITED.

final warning DON'T BE ABUSIVE/RUDE

CM

 

[Bigbusiness]

Now, I've just entered my Long position at 6:36pm pacific at $1.3363 which is just one pip above your Short entry. My target is $1.3430 and it is a dynamically controlled target – so it will change as time goes on. My event horizon is 2 hours to 48 hours. I could give more detail, but it is not necessary since this is not a Trade Profile for the purposes of having people evaluate my system.

That one is looking good The chart below shows where I think you entered UK time.

 

[rglenn]

That one is looking good The chart below shows where I think you entered UK time.

I was in that trade as well using Chick Goslin's technique on a demo account and it has performed very well.

Still early days though.

Sorry folks can't explain the technicals on this trade as its way above my head!!

 

[cj12]

good trade TV I got stopped out.i post somthing here tonight. on Two trades to date profit of 62 points after this loss.

I be looking to short on a break of 30 points from the high of today on eur/usd

CJ

 

[dwt1020]

these are all fantasy trades , who gives a monkeys . do it for real , if you can.

EDITED.

final warning DON'T BE ABUSIVE/RUDE

CM

Wisestguy,

I find it amazing you can say this is a Fantasy Trade. How much more real and live can you be than to make a call WHEN you place the trade at the price you placed the trade and the TARGET. VT even gave a time frame. What is it about this trade you don't see as live and real...?

VT, thanks for "going live" and showing this board the potential of your system. Perhaps you'll have around long enough all to see more potential or perhaps until you experience your first loss. I'd like to learn more and engage you in an intelligent conversation about developing systems, but you are LIGHT years ahead of my skill level and as you'd most likely become bored and impatient quickly.

D

 

[cj12]

Update I challenge TV to compare his trades to mine. The method im using was made up within 2 hours of an old trending methods I had years back. The challenge is to see if a simple method will match TV more complex method. Also im not a forex trader im a s&p and Dow trader. but im up for the challenge,

The method is looking to gain a nice trend,.this should pay for loses, that is expected with this type of trading. I can't give my current trading style as I would not have time to post the signals. it involves more time. To trade.

TV is an intelligent man and if he is street smart he will do well in this game. of hard knocks, I have seen intelligent traders fail, but seen ex street market traders and taxi drivers. and porker players make it,because they are street smart, what i mean is the intelligent trader would follow is method blindly but a street smart trader would not.EXAPLE if a 30 ton truck crossed you lane would you stay in the correct lane or more over in to the wrong lane. the street smart guy would move over in to the wrong lane. but the intelligent trade would stick with his method. and stay in the lane,Thats why you need to be street smart in this game.

I give 2 trades to date 1 loss and 1 winn.after losses, we got a profit of 65 points, The next trade is look to short EUR/USD at 1,3495.if it stop ,13539.Remember this method im using was made up in 2 hours, and im trying to out perform TV more light years complex method. Its not a competition.Its just a studie, to see if KISS beats complex.

Happy Chrismass to you all

CJ

 

[cj12]

Update Cancle order to sell at 1.3495. Did not hit, Now place new order at 1.3598. stop 50 points if filled.

Where are you TV with you trades?

CJ

 

[dwt1020]

CJ,

has this order been filled and stopped out..?

VT where are you?

d

 

[cj12]

dwt1020

Yes got filled. Stop not hit. short from 1.3598.

Move stop to break-even if 1.3561 is hit.

CJ