Weekly Market Wrap – July 6, 2026: DXY Drops on Weak NFP, Gold Surges Past $4,190, Oil Under Pressure

[RichieVo]

DXY – Weak NFP Sends Dollar Down​

The US Dollar Index fell to 100.87 last week, marking its worst weekly drop since early April (-0.48%). The catalyst was Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed only 57,000 new jobs added – far below the 110,000 forecast and the lowest in four months.
Key Levels:

• Support: 100.00 – 100.08 (34-day MA)
• Resistance: 101.00 – 101.59 (last week's high)

Outlook: Fed rate hike expectations for September dropped from 67% to 50%. The dollar may remain under pressure this week, but traders should watch US CPI data – a hot print could reverse the momentum.

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Gold – V-Shaped Recovery​

Gold surged to **$4,194.50/oz**, up 2.9% for the week. The weak NFP data triggered a massive short-covering rally from the $3,941.70 low. Gold is now well above the $4,000 psychological level.
Key Levels:

• Support: $4,100 – $4,032 (last week's low)
• Resistance: $4,264 (38.2% Fib) – $4,371 (Bollinger Band upper)

Outlook: Bullish momentum remains strong. However, the RSI at 48 suggests room to run before becoming overbought. A break above $4,264 could target $4,371 and $4,500. Downside risk: a strong US CPI report next week.

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WTI Crude – Supply Overhang Weighs​

WTI crude traded around **$68.56/bbl**, down 3.2% for the week. Prices hit a four-month low of $67.05 before some short-covering. The bearish drivers are clear:
Key Drivers:

• US oil production hit a record 13.93M bpd
• Iran has shipped 40M barrels since the US lifted the naval blockade
• Russian exports at record levels
• Easing US-Iran tensions reduced geopolitical risk premium

Key Levels:

• Support: $67.05 – $66.80
• Resistance: $70.00 – $73.19 (200-day MA)

Outlook: The oil market remains oversupplied. A break below $67.05 could target $65.80 and $64.00. Any rebound toward $70.00 is likely to face selling pressure.

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Equities – ASX 200 Rebounds, Dow Hits Record High​

ASX 200: Closed at 8,844 (+1.2% for the week), rebounding from 8,680 support. Gold stocks led the rally: Northern Star +10.6%, Evolution +8.6%. Key support: 8,680-8,700. Resistance: 8,900-9,000.
Dow Jones: Gained 1.38% for the week, hitting a new all-time high. Healthcare (+7%) and Real Estate (+3.5%) led the gains. Chip stocks and Tesla pulled back on AI valuation concerns.
Outlook: The medium-term uptrend remains intact, but short-term pullback risks are rising (RSI at 68). Watch for CPI data to drive direction.

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Geopolitics – Still a Wildcard​

US-Iran talks continue in Doha, but Iran insists on controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar confirmed the next round of talks will be soon. However, reports of potential Israeli plans to assassinate a senior Iranian negotiator could derail progress. Any escalation would send gold and oil surging.

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Key Takeaways​

• **Gold ($4,194):** Bullish above $4,100. Target: $4,264 – $4,371. Stop below $4,032.
• **Oil ($68.56):** Bearish bias. Resistance at $70.00. Support at $67.05 and $66.80.
• DXY (100.87): Bearish bias. Support at 100.00. Resistance at 101.00.
• ASX 200 (8,844): Bullish above 8,700. Resistance at 8,900-9,000.
• Dow Jones (~52,400): Bullish but near overbought. Watch for pullback to 52,300.