Weekly Market Wrap – July 13, 2026: US-Iran Talks Resume, DXY Weakens, Gold Holds $4,100, Oil Retreats from $75

[RichieVo]

1. Geopolitics – US and Iran Agree to Resume Peace Talks​

After a week of military escalation, the US and Iran have reportedly agreed to resume peace talks. The breakthrough comes after the US had declared the ceasefire "over" and conducted airstrikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated by striking US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. However, diplomatic channels have reopened, with both sides returning to the negotiating table.
Market Impact:

• Oil prices retreated from $75.73
• Safe-haven demand for USD eased
• Risk appetite improved

Outlook: The situation remains fragile. Any breakdown in talks could trigger another oil spike.

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2. DXY – Dollar Weakens as Safe-Haven Demand Fades​

The US Dollar Index fell to 100.60 last week – its lowest in three weeks. The decline was driven by the resumption of US-Iran peace talks, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, and lower oil prices, which eased inflation concerns.
Key Levels:

• Support: 100.60 (recent low) – 100.16 (40-day MA)
• Resistance: 101.27 – 101.80 (June 24 high)

Outlook: The dollar remains weak but could rebound if US CPI data this week comes in stronger than expected. Range: 100.50 – 101.50.

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3. Gold – Holding Steady Around $4,100​

Gold is trading at **$4,115/oz**, stabilizing after a volatile week. Prices hit a high of $4,202 before retreating. The metal is up 2.9% from the June low of $3,941.
Key Drivers:

• US-Iran peace talks reduce safe-haven demand
• Oil price retreat eases inflation fears
• However, the Fed is still expected to hike at least once this year

Key Levels:

• Support: $4,100 – $4,022 (Wednesday low)
• Resistance: $4,175 (trendline) – $4,200 – $4,307 (50-week MA)

Outlook: Gold needs to break above $4,175-$4,200 to confirm an uptrend. Failure could see a pullback to $4,000-$4,022.

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4. Oil – Retreats After Geopolitical Spike​

WTI crude is trading at **$71.28/bbl**, retreating from a weekly high of $75.73. The rally was driven by US strikes on Iran, but the resumption of peace talks has taken some steam out of the move.
Key Drivers:

• US-Iran military escalation pushed oil to $75.73
• Peace talks resume, oil corrects
• Still up 5% for the week

Key Levels:

• Support: $70.00 (psychological) – $66.60 (double bottom)
• Resistance: $75.73 (weekly high) – $74.38 (200-week MA)

Outlook: Oil remains volatile. Escalation targets $75-$77; de-escalation targets $70-$68.

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5. Equities – ASX 200 Rebounds, Dow Jones Hits 53,000​

ASX 200: Closed at 8,806 (+0.5%), ending a four-day losing streak. Mining stocks rebounded on higher iron ore and copper prices. However, the index fell 0.4% for the week. Support at 8,730-8,770. Resistance at 8,840-8,950.
Dow Jones: Hit a record high of 53,000 before pulling back to 52,478 (-0.8% for the week). Tech and financials led gains, while industrials and energy lagged. Support at 52,200-51,900. Resistance at 53,000.
Outlook: Both indices are consolidating after recent moves. ASX 200 needs to break 8,840. Dow Jones needs to break 53,000 for further upside.

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Key Takeaways​

• **Gold ($4,115):** Neutral. Break above $4,175 targets $4,200-$4,307. Break below $4,100 targets $4,022-$4,000.
• **Oil ($71.28):** Bullish above $70.00. Target $75.73-$77.00. Stop below $70.00.
• DXY (100.60): Bearish below 101.00. Target 100.16. Resistance at 101.27.
• ASX 200 (8,806): Neutral. Range: 8,730-8,840.
• Dow Jones (52,478): Neutral. Range: 52,200-53,000.