Watch Affinity Internet (AIH)..

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
£82 in Feb. £10 in May...£18 beg of Sept...£5.30 end of Nov..finally today up +35 to £6.20 with a low volume of 295,483...

Announced its third quarter results for the 9 months ending 30th September 2000 and an update on strategic developments during the period on December 4: total turnover up 200%...gross loss reduced to 36 from 44% of turnover...Cash outflow from operating activities in Q3 falls to £2m from £6.4m...reliance on interconnect falling...total number of customers registered for Affinity services up 23%...lots of strategic developments..

Terry Plummer, the Chairman said:
“This 3 month period has been one of the most significant in Affinity’s history. We are pleased to announce that we have achieved one of our medium-term strategic goals with the Company’s admission to the Official List of the London Stock Exchange whilst simultaneously raising £21.2 million of additional funds."

6-month timeframe chart: price crossed over 5 day MA which crossed over 10..all heading up to cross over 26 day MA which is over £7...stochastic K crossing over D and both heading up...14 day RSI between 30 and 50 sharply heading up...MACD histogram increasing over the equilibrium line...14 day money flow index crossing 50 sharply heading up...OBV increasing rapidly fastly...

useful analysis: http://www.citywire.co.uk/partner/default.asp?section=0&vid=20446 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/Business/Investment_Column/2000-12/invest051200.shtml

looks like I am growing affinity for AIH..post your views please, TA or others..
 

David Cobbe

Junior member
34 1
Hiya Riz,

It's worth noting that AIH has quiet a commitment from the likes of VOD. Many of the major telcos are subscribers to AIH's services.

David.
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Thanks David,

Now we've also got House broker Charles Stanley's analysis saying AIH is undervalued and each share is worth £10.35 only on the basis of the ISP business alone.. this values it around £146 m.
I think this may be the start of an outbreak of “buy” notes...certainly on top of my watch list...it's important to see a new bottom formed around the current price and OBV which is at the moment much under 0 to head up and give us the indication that the smart money has started buying...
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
I think in the short term AIH may lose further ground. OBV and MF down and looks like the MACD might be topping out, starting to bend over. Looking at most tech stocks, they seem to have lost about half of their gains from recent rally but more importantly, most have become rapidly over bought with MACD having turning over to start a down trend. There are dozens of stocks showing this pattern which is a bad portend for the short term at least. Indicators for AIH are not so negative but I still do not think it will rise significantly. Remember, when is a share genuinely cheap. Just because the price has declined doesn't mean it won't go lower. Also be aware that in bad market conditions TA indicators are unreliable. Take care and if you must, then rigid money management rules must be adhered to.

No financial advice intended

Tx
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
I have just done some testing and I now realise that we may all be working at cross purposes, depending on your indicator settings. My MACD is set at 5.35.5 which gave a positive crossup on 4/12 and now looking over bought. However, if your MACD settings are 11.66.33 the crossup occurred on 15/12 and looking more healthy. Problem is with this setting the MACD is at variance with other indicators, eg. TCI which also looks over bought. Food for thought.

Tx
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Hi Traderx,

Thanks for the TA support..my chart analysis of 11 Dec. is no longer valid however, last week's turmoil turned all indicators upside down, next week they might just go the other way round..therefore for the time being I don't rely on TA indicators and use the charts only to establish support and resistance levels to establish possible points when the price might bounce...
I am also growing suspicious about MACD..I think I'd prefer RSI..they both rely on the same inputs still come up with different indications...in the case of AIH, RSI proved to be indicating the downtrend in the price more correctly...MACD is still indicating an upward movement although we've had a week of downtrend in the meantime...on the other hand I have realized that RSI, OBV and Money Flow rely on different inputs and measure different things...so from now on I'll rely mostly on RSI with the Bollinger Bands, OBV and Money Flow for further confirmation of a trend...just wanted to share this with you and see what you make of this..I am also wondering if Martin has also stopped using MACD for the same reason..
One way or another we'll get there..

[This message has been edited by rizgar (edited 17-12-2000).]
 

waldorf

1
141 1
With a share like AIH and many others being so volatile this year, its no wonder TA and MACD in particular are not accurate, MACD trails the price evertime. Daytrading techniques over a very short timeframe, DC's swingtrading is the only way to profit from this market. as ever dyor
Having said all that the price is very tempting??


------------------

Col
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
Rizgar

Sorry mate, I missed your post last night. I agree in principle with your first point, that in volatile markets, indicators are at best misleading and at worst can seriously threaten your wealth. That said, apart from volume clues, TA is the only thing we have to help. TA plus volume is still the best way to forecast price movement. For example, look at all of those companies on the PW thread; you could have forecast the PW a couple of days in advance of the announcement as share begins to tumbled over the lower BB. I wonder how many people spotted PWs coming using TA and got out with their shirt on their backs. When MACD starts to close up and begins to arch over then invariably the stock will head south. Therefore, whilst MACD has its limitations, because as Waldorf said it is a lagging indicator, it can still be useful as part of our system of confirmation using RSI, OBV, MF etc. You can bet at 06.30 hours each day I am watching Bloomberg when they look at Money-flow / price divergence. They use a charting system to overlay price with MF. Quite often money is flowing into a stock but the price heads south. Eventually, price follows MF and OBV. There is no doubt that these two indicators are powerful in their own right. The volume often increases as the price comes off. This is selling volume. Then when MM or stock specialist has accumulated sufficient stock the price starts to rise. Volume then falls off to average levels. This is buying volume and price rises.

Like yourself I now prefer RSI to MACD. You see more successful rises from RSI crossup than MACD. Some traders use MACD on real time charts and win with it. However, I sometimes think that MMs know how to manipulate, not only price, but also some TA indicators to give false signals, especially in this market when MMs make their money from locking in traders and forcing them to sell out at a loss. Incidentially, I genuinely believe that price /MF/OBV divergence is a viable trading strategy but you need to take extra care at present. Always expect the unexpected and suspect everything. Things at present are not always logical, not what they might seem. 'UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE DAY' Hope this helps.

No financial advice intended

Tx
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Another quick recovery one..up over +200 since january the 12th...if AIH hold over 600 it may well hit next resistance around 800 soon..

rizgar
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
bucked the trend..

Up +37.5 (6.4%) to 627.5 bucking the general tech downtrend making me grow more affinity towards affinity internet... still worth watching closely I think..

(no financial advice intended)

rizgar
 
AIH has been testing the 65 day ma and is on the edge of the upper channel/trendline.

It looks rather overbought to me and market sentiment is (as you say) going against it.

My guess is that this will go down before it goes up.

Good luck!
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Hi Darth Trader,

Thanks for your reply to this and a few other of my posts...hope you can keep this going...

As for AIH, I have started this thread in anticipation of a share price recovery period which started early in Jan. at around 410 has gone up by about 210 ever since..meaning around 50% increase in the share price...in about 20 days..the price has retraced 3 times in the mean time...and might retrace again considering the amount of increase in such a short time and that no shares keep going up without being retraced...this however is not the point of this thread...the reason why keep it going is to see if it can reach the anticipated resistance of around 800...

The chart and the sentiment towards AIH doesn't show a price fall..but the negative market sentiment and stochastics and MFI show signs of a retracment..only that is not the issue here...it might retrace soon or later but over all the trend is still up for AIH I think...

this and other posts suggesting shares to watch naturally exclude a general crash or serious downtrend in the market during which any one of them might fall...

cheers

rizgar

[Edited by rizgar on 04-02-2001 at 09:39 PM]
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
once more bucking the trend...

AIH was up again today...+12.50 (+2.0%) to 640...bucking the general tech downtrend once more...

Chart shaping up much better...price and MAs all in the right positions heading up...widening BBs also heading up...stochastics hovering right below/at the 100 (overbought) line refusing to fall dwon as they would normally be expected and crossing over one another in turn..last being D crossing over K and heading up...RSI above 70 line still ticking up...MFI shooting up almost at 90 degree and also touching 100 line..with OBV still slightly up...

Looks like AIH might just go for a breakout...

(no financial advice intended)

rizgar