W.D. Gann System Does Work

[fugly]

DT theres a member over at forexfactory who's able to make money from coin flips ...... CONSISTENTLY, his user name is Ronald Raygun, he's been around a long time and is quite well respected.

If you read his profile over at ff he explains his coin flip challenge (as he puts it) and he has made a lot of money. Started out with just $200 and ended the year with $250 thousand.

Really remarkable.

 

[Blaiserboy]

I think that there are some Gann ideas that are appropriate for trading......

I also think that if someone wants to sell a system in here he should disclose that he is a vendor and register as a vendor instead of referring us to a marketing site

just sayin.........

 

[DionysusToast]

DT theres a member over at forexfactory who's able to make money from coin flips ...... CONSISTENTLY, his user name is Ronald Raygun, he's been around a long time and is quite well respected.

If you read his profile over at ff he explains his coin flip challenge (as he puts it) and he has made a lot of money. Started out with just $200 and ended the year with $250 thousand.

Really remarkable.

This is not at all remarkable. The problem is that the explanation is beyond the grasp of most people.All systems compose of many parts. The edge of a system can exist in any of those parts. In fact - give me a system with multiple parts and I can move your 'edge' from one part to another.

One of the major problems with discussing this issue on this specific forum is that there are people that will drown the thread with drivel to attempt to prevent intelligent conversation on the issue taking place.

What the coin toss system is, is a trend following system. The coin tosses themselves eventually put you in a trade in the direction of the trend, which you ride out. So - the management piece cuts out the bad coin tosses fairly quickly. It relies on markets that trend and don't chop about. Of course, if you could predict which market will trend well, then you could use an MA crossover just as succesfully. This was shown on another thread but those that couldn't understand (or accept) the concepts just threw sh1t at the messenger without ever coming up with an argument about the points addressed.

Let's put it another way. Say I was a discretionary trader & I used a coin toss but after entry, I immediately cut out any trades that didn't fit my discretion. Would we then say that my trade management made my 'random entry' system profitable ? Of course not. You'd say I was cheating by immediately applying my discretion after the trade. Well - this 'random entry' system does the same thing by immediately applying trend following logic after the trade. Chop would kill you on this.

A quote from Ronald Rayguns profile:

1) Toss a coin: Heads long, Tails short
2) Manage the trade as you see fit. If you think the trade is bad, exit.
3) When you exit a trade, go back to step 1.

Ring any bells ?

 

[Pat494]

I don't thnk you will respond, but let me give you the beenfit of the doubt. Why don't you post a live trade on this thread, according to Gann? .

There are so many lines/grids on the average Gann chart that in hindsight it is easy to say it was predictable.

I agree with the above - the proof of this pudding is live trades only

 

[kimo'sabby]

This is not at all remarkable. The problem is that the explanation is beyond the grasp of most people.All systems compose of many parts. The edge of a system can exist in any of those parts. In fact - give me a system with multiple parts and I can move your 'edge' from one part to another.



Do you actually take yourself seriously? You sound like God to me mate.

You say you can actually move someones edge for them?

I look forward to your journal, but i'll take it that you have a sly and slippery way of squirming out of the bridge too far.

 

[DionysusToast]

This is not at all remarkable. The problem is that the explanation is beyond the grasp of most people.All systems compose of many parts. The edge of a system can exist in any of those parts. In fact - give me a system with multiple parts and I can move your 'edge' from one part to another.



Do you actually take yourself seriously? You sound like God to me mate.

You say you can actually move someones edge for them?

I look forward to your journal, but i'll take it that you have a sly and slippery way of squirming out of the bridge too far.

Yes Tonto, I am serious and yes, the concepts are a bit hard to get your head around.

You should consider the fact that I am not spouting bull****, I'm just discussing something you wont/cant understand. I presume it's the 'wont' that's getting in your way and not the 'cant'.

The reason people want to believe this stuff is that it is yet another way of absolving them of learning the markets. "Gee - I can just enter at random, apply some simple money management, not learn anything else abd be rich". Shouldn't takemore than a week to get profitable then, should it ?

 

[DionysusToast]

Can anyone tell me the difference:

1) Toss a coin: Heads long, Tails short
2) Manage the trade as you see fit. If you think the trade is bad, exit.
3) When you exit a trade, go back to step 1.

1) Watch the market as you see fit. If you see a setup you like go to step 2
2) Toss a coin to decide whether to take the trade. Enter with a fixed stop and target.
3) When your trade is over, go back to step 1.

It's a simplified explanation of course but the more complex one's don't seem to sink in.

 

[GCC]

It's a simplified explanation of course but the more complex one's don't seem to sink in.

I certainly agree that in good trading there are more than just good money management and cutting losses. However, I think the point here is that the entry is the least important part of the whole system. Using your own terms, it is that your edge can easily be transferred away from the entry part, but not in other parts, say the exit part.

 

[fugly]

What the coin toss system is, is a trend following system. The coin tosses themselves eventually put you in a trade in the direction of the trend, which you ride out. So - the management piece cuts out the bad coin tosses fairly quickly. It relies on markets that trend and don't chop about. Of course, if you could predict which market will trend well, then you could use an MA crossover just as succesfully. This was shown on another thread but those that couldn't understand (or accept) the concepts just threw sh1t at the messenger without ever coming up with an argument about the points addressed.

DT I agree with this, that is in fact partly how RR deos it.

Let's put it another way. Say I was a discretionary trader & I used a coin toss but after entry, I immediately cut out any trades that didn't fit my discretion. Would we then say that my trade management made my 'random entry' system profitable ? Of course not. You'd say I was cheating by immediately applying my discretion after the trade. Well - this 'random entry' system does the same thing by immediately applying trend following logic after the trade. Chop would kill you on this.

I wouldn't say you're cheating, the coin toss is just to show that money can be made with random entries. What you do after the entry ie how you manage the trade is up to you. If you think you're wrong and immediately exit the trade that is fine because even if its a small loss you would still lose the trade. A loss is a loss. Despite this if you can double the a/c in 30 flips entering on a coin toss it would clearly show money can be made by entering on a coin toss. In post #5 Rathcoole said

mate, as has been shown time & time again, with the correct money management and approach to risk management, flipping a coin "works"

He's didnt mention any criteria or rules to follow for trade management and position sizing. He just specified a coin toss entry.

As I've seen this being done I' mentioned it. RR is able to do it consistently within 30 flips and btw he uses the same lot size through out the exercise so there's no position sizing, just trade management as in discretionary exits. Remember even if he exits immediatley on entry it still a loss and he has to make up for that to increase his a/c. As he is able to do make money with this approach what Rathcoole said is correct

I'm not trying to be condescending or sarcastic or over smart or anything like that at all. I just mentioned it coz I've seen it being done.

Can anyone tell me the difference:

1) Toss a coin: Heads long, Tails short
2) Manage the trade as you see fit. If you think the trade is bad, exit.
3) When you exit a trade, go back to step 1.

1) Watch the market as you see fit. If you see a setup you like go to step 2
2) Toss a coin to decide whether to take the trade. Enter with a fixed stop and target.
3) When your trade is over, go back to step 1.

It's a simplified explanation of course but the more complex one's don't seem to sink in.

in the first case you're always in the market, you don't have the oportunity to try your luck only when u see a good set up. The basic difference is you'd have a lot more losses with the first scenario than the second simply coz you're always in the market even at times when you dont see a set up you're still in during choppy times or when u prefer not to trade and stand by.

Its really not the same thing ...... Imho opinion of course

 

[wdgannlive]

sure, let's sell gold here and wait for a week. because rising time for gold is up. (pending for a short term retrieval) 1244.55. Targeting to have at least $10+ profit.

knowing that the gold's rising time is up, I would have closed my trade now (1238.00, market creating a mini-low now), and find a better place to sell it again

 

[wdgannlive]

the mini-drop time has expired, i will buy 1/3 of my normal size at 1235.2 now

 

[wdgannlive]

i would stop loss at 1230 if it reach there

 

[wdgannlive]

my last trade was stopped out at 1230. lossing$5 with 1/3 capital($1.7 for full capital)

and i would sell it at 1238 with full capital now. aiming a $20+ movement in a week

 

[madison]

my last trade was stopped out at 1230. lossing$5 with 1/3 capital($1.7 for full capital)

and i would sell it at 1238 with full capital now. aiming a $20+ movement in a week

WD,

Thanks for posting live calls. Two questions, which contract are you using and what stop for this position. Thanks.

 

[wdgannlive]

i am trading at 6.67% margin on mini-gold with 1252.5 as stop loss

 

[madison]

i am trading at 6.67% margin on mini-gold with 1252.5 as stop loss

Thanks. I was also wondering if your price levels are based on the August or a different contract month.

 

[wdgannlive]

yes the price is based on the most recent month

 

[wdgannlive]

i would now close the trade at 1230 (profit of $8) and look for place to sell again

 

[wdgannlive]

just want to drop a note that i exited the market too early. the market dropped more than $20 as previously expected. i just exited too early.

 

[wdgannlive]

buy gold at 1212 now