View on crude oil

Aug 26, 2015
Please feel free to share your views about the short-term trend in crude oil in this thread.
At this moment, I am of the opinion that crude oil is destined for profit booking. The next lower target according to my assessment is $55/bbl.
What do you think?
Jan 6, 2018
Producers prefer $60>
Consumer elasticity favours $90<

This was highlighted a few years ago, and will continue to drive the markets.

To work this market without taking physical positions is incredibly difficult, must be said.
Oct 27, 2017
Crude Oil is a naturally occurring liquid fossil fuel resulting from plants and animals buried underground and exposed to extreme heat and pressure. Crude oil is one of the most demanded commodities and prices have significantly increased in recent times.
Oct 14, 2015
Oil prices fell and lost points scored in the morning, quickly digesting geopolitical risks, which increased after Saudi Arabia intercepted ballistic missiles launched from the territory of Yemen.

Futures in New York are traded with a decrease of 0.6%. Previous quotes jumped more than 1% amid rumors that the deteriorating situation in Yemen could lead to disruptions in supplies in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China has launched futures contracts for oil in yuan, in an attempt to expand its influence in pricing and challenge the benchmarks of the US and Europe.

Over the past five days, prices for black gold have shown the biggest yesterday's increase after US President Donald Trump appointed John Bolton as national security adviser. For the market, this signaled that America could take a tougher stance on Iran, a major producer of OPEC. In addition, if Saudi Arabia faces supply disruptions, the market may face supply shortages, as the growth of shale production in the US in this case will be insufficient to compensate for the reduction in supplies in the Middle East, according to the Japanese state corporation Japan Oil, Gas and metals National corporation.

"The attack on the part of Yemen caused investors to be nervous and provoked a price increase. But as soon as it became known that the Saudis intercepted the missiles, the players immediately set about recording profits, "comments Takayuki Nogami, a senior economist at the state-owned company.

May futures for WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 42 cents to $ 65.64 after a 67 cents jump in the morning. The aggregate trading volumes almost by 72% exceeded the 100-day average. Similar contracts for Brent retreated to $ 69.58 on the London intercontinental stock exchange. On Friday, prices increased by $ 1.54 - to $ 70.45, touching the highs of the end of January. The global benchmark is trading at a premium to WTI of $ 4.67.

Chinese yuan futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange traded at 429.8 yuan per barrel ($ 68.16) at noon. During the Asian trade, new futures showed higher trading volumes than the international benchmark. Earlier, quotations in New York and London sharply upset the news that they met in Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom reported the interception of seven ballistic missiles, which the markets perceived as an escalation of the conflict in the region.

Meanwhile, drilling activity continued to grow in the US last week. According to Baker Hughes, the number of operating installations increased by four, to 804 units, which became the maximum since March 2015. This is the eighth increase in the number of drilling operations in the last nine weeks.
Oct 14, 2015
Oil at 2014 highs

Last week, oil prices reached their highest level since 2014 due to the worsening situation in the middle East. The last time geopolitics so strongly influenced the commodity segment during the "Arab spring" at the beginning of this decade.

The Brent reached $73, more than doubling its price from the beginning of 2016. But continued it rise? Considering that America and its allies are bombing Syria, from Yemen to the Saudis to fly rockets, and sanctions hurt the Russian raw companies (however, metallurgical and non-oil) — political risks are definitely dominating the market of black gold. Add here the upcoming us sanctions against Iran next month, and it becomes clear why the bulls have intensified.

With regard to the fundamental realities of the market, the international energy Agency reported that OPEC (if it wishes) can already soon afford to say that its "mission is fulfilled": the fight against supply surplus by limiting production since the beginning of 2017 has helped to reduce excess reserves in the world.

But there are factors that require special attention and caution
First, at the time of the Gulf war in 1991, virtually any military confrontation that poses a threat to supplies fits into traders ' strategy of "buy more tension, sell on bombing." The fact is that the market does not like uncertainty, but as soon as hostilities begin, especially when there are small missile strikes, it brings some clarity to the market. So, if the us attacks on Syria will do without fueling a more serious confrontation, traders can take for even more active profit-taking after the rally in recent days.

Second, the us shale industry has encountered some difficulties, and in Texas barrels are traded with the largest discount on the coast, indicating a significant increase in supply. Ultimately, this oil will affect the market. So in the future, caution should be exercised when trading in black gold.

Brent oil has already fallen by one and a half percent and is now trading at $ 71.45 per barrel. WTI crude oil lost 1.33%, going down to 66.38.


Active member
Apr 10, 2014
How low can WTI oil fall?

The price of crude oil has been pressured to the downside by a supply rise and a drop in global demand. On the weekly chart of WTI oil we can see that the commodity completed four weeks dropping and breaks below the 55 week EMA around the 64.46 level. The price comes close to the 200 week EMA around the 61.54 level, which could act as support in case of continuing dropping. In case of a breakdown below the 200 week EMA, the next support levels could be the 60.00 and the 58.00. To the upside, in case the price breaks above the 55 week EMA, its next resistance could be the 200 day EMA at the 66.45 level.

Likes: wackypete2
Jun 29, 2011
USD3.25 (5.5%) fall in one day yesterday to below USD56.

Anybody short would have had a great day.

Coincidentally, virtually hit the target price in the original post of a year ago!
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