use T.A to determine when you should buy and sell property?

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
It is interesting you mention Warren Buffett. I think he is a political shill, but occasionally he lets the truth slip out. In one interview he recommended that people buy a house because he said it was the best way for the average person to short the $US dollar. This exposed his view on the current US Monetary policy rather than his belief in owning property.

Warren Buffett Would Invest In US Property - US REAL ESTATE TV - YouTube

As far as I know, he still only owns one house which is the first one he bought in the 1950’s.

You are really seeing too much into something that's not really there. I doubt he cared about politics or knew how macro economics worked in his younger days in 1950's when he was just a regular joe, though somewhat exceptional kind of regular joe.

But look at what the house did for the man ? The house allowed him a base to build his billions. In the mean time, you are probably wasting your life going from rental to rental hoping to find the right kind of neighbours. The simple fact is in rentals, you will always get a bunch of monkeys.
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,665 1,488
You are really seeing too much into something that's not really there. I doubt he cared about politics or knew how macro economics worked in his younger days in 1950's when he was just a regular joe, though somewhat exceptional kind of regular joe.

But look at what the house did for the man ? The house allowed him a base to build his billions. In the mean time, you are probably wasting your life going from rental to rental hoping to find the right kind of neighbours. The simple fact is in rentals, you will always get a bunch of monkeys.

This isn't about me Joe :) I am a happy renter and investor, I sold my property and haven't looked back. The original question was quite simple and you've answered it now. Buy a house whatever the price.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
There are T.A's who say that everything you need to know is in the charts. Does this apply to house values as well? Obviously the charts aren't going to tell you about a neighbour from hell :D

I don't think there's anything that tells you everything. Also I don't think many TA people would consider it wise to trade an instrument based solely on an average of instruments, unless it's the average you're trading. Sure if you are trading a stock you might look at the Dow for some overall trend, but you're going to need to look at the stock itself. And that's just when there are 30 components in the average. How many components are there in the housing average? Think it would be nuts to make a judgement on one individual house from just that.

And then there are other issues such as liquidity, transaction costs etc, and the fact that not everything about a house is contained in its value or even its relative value to other houses, i.e. your personal utility.
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
Sure if you are trading a stock you might look at the Dow for some overall trend, but you're going to need to look at the stock itself. And that's just when there are 30 components in the average. How many components are there in the housing average? Think it would be nuts to make a judgement on one individual house from just that.

Agree based on a specific property.
In that instance primary factors are location, amenities, search and survey etc.

The state of the overall market is more use in deciding to enter or exit the market
at a specific point in time.
For an individual property, its largely useless, except as a negotiating tool maybe.
Same regarding valuation - valuation report, land registry and local zoopla sold prices are worth more.
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,665 1,488
I don't think there's anything that tells you everything. Also I don't think many TA people would consider it wise to trade an instrument based solely on an average of instruments, unless it's the average you're trading. Sure if you are trading a stock you might look at the Dow for some overall trend, but you're going to need to look at the stock itself. And that's just when there are 30 components in the average. How many components are there in the housing average? Think it would be nuts to make a judgement on one individual house from just that.

And then there are other issues such as liquidity, transaction costs etc, and the fact that not everything about a house is contained in its value or even its relative value to other houses, i.e. your personal utility.

The difference is that it is possible for the average investor to pick one stock that outperforms the stock market averages. What are the chances they could do the same with a house? So, despite minor cosmetic differences, it would be fair to say that if the price of the house you own doubles, chances are, almost every other house has doubled in value as well. I know it's human nature for a person to think that their house is worth much more than their neighbours house, but it is rarely the case.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134
Here's a recent article about the US housing market that uses TA: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38458.html

I don't agree with his predictions as I think house prices will continue to grind sideways for more years yet, and hence fall in real terms due to inflation, but it shows some useful charts and data including the inflation adjusted US house price chart.
 
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