US PMI & UK Retail Sales: What to Watch Today (Apr 24)
Today, two events could set the tone for the weekend:
This is a real-time snapshot of factory activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion → bullish USD. Below 50 signals contraction → bearish USD. Recent regional Fed surveys have been mixed, so today’s number could surprise.
UK Retail Sales
After yesterday’s hot CPI, retail sales will show if consumers are still spending despite high inflation. Strong sales = more BoE rate hike pressure → bullish GBP. Weak sales = recession worry → bearish GBP.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Saturday 1:00 GMT)
Don’t ignore this. It includes 1‑year inflation expectations – a Fed‑watched metric. Higher inflation expectations could push the dollar up.
How to trade these
Today, two events could set the tone for the weekend:
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) at 0:45 GMT
- GB Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) at 17:00 GMT
- (Also Saturday early morning: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 1:00 GMT)
This is a real-time snapshot of factory activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion → bullish USD. Below 50 signals contraction → bearish USD. Recent regional Fed surveys have been mixed, so today’s number could surprise.
UK Retail Sales
After yesterday’s hot CPI, retail sales will show if consumers are still spending despite high inflation. Strong sales = more BoE rate hike pressure → bullish GBP. Weak sales = recession worry → bearish GBP.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Saturday 1:00 GMT)
Don’t ignore this. It includes 1‑year inflation expectations – a Fed‑watched metric. Higher inflation expectations could push the dollar up.
How to trade these
- Expect volatility 5 minutes before and after each release.
- Avoid market orders during the first minute – use limit orders.
- Reduce lot size and widen stops.
