Copy into Excel and justify properly to see SnD.
Estimated world uranium balance
Tonnes U (1) 2006e 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f
---Mine Production 39584 44427 49124 56060 62771
---Other Supply 22661 20482 19635 20444 19250
Total Supply 62245 64909 68759 76504 82021
% Change YoY -2.7 4.3 5.9 11.3 7.2
Reactor Requirements 72765 69300 70532 73304 74729
% Change YoY -3.1 -4.8 1.8 3.9 1.9
Balance -10520 -4391 -1773 3200 7292
Note (1): Tonne U (tU) = 1.179 * 1 Tonne U308
Source: Macquarie Research, Ux Consulting, April 2007
"The new Ranger mine output figures for 2007 and 2008
compare to our (pre-7 March) production forecasts of
4,620tU in 2007, and 5,005tU in 2008, resulting in a cut
in our production forecasts of 594tU for 2007 and 1985-
2388tU for 2008. This is a substantial downward revision
to supply over the next two years, and has the effect of
pushing the market further into deficit in 2007 (-4,391tU),
and changing the market from a small surplus in 2008 to
a sizeable deficit (-1,773tU).
This development highlights the susceptibility of uranium
supply to disruption, as well as the concentrated nature
of uranium mine supply (ie, market depends on a small
number of large mines).
While we believe that supply will eventually come online,
this development, together with the news on 18 March
that production at Cameco’s Cigar lake project would be
delayed until at least 2010, is likely to leave the market
tight for longer than we had previously forecast, and also
raises the question of whether we should be allowing a
bigger allowance in our supply forecasts for
delays/disruption
Output growth out to 2010 is now much more dependent
on planned strong mine supply growth in Kazakhstan
and Africa. All eyes will be on production developments
in these countries over the next two years, and any
problems/delays will result in further substantial
increases in prices. Spot uranium prices are currently
trading at $95/lbU308, up from $40/lbU308 a year ago.
Overall, we believe that the implications of ERA’s
announcement on Monday have yet to work their way
through the spot market, and remain extremely bullish
for uranium prices in 2007 and 2008."
