Ultimate Forex Speculation

Mr. Crabs

Mr. Crabs

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Post any opinions, speculations or predictions you have. I'll start with some examples.

USD / SGD looks like it's in for a short term rally to last a few weeks - this first quarter.

USD / HGD looks like it's in for a quick drop intra-day to consolidate after this big run.

Euro looks overweight, in for a decline through the long-term.

Contradictory opinions are welcome as long as you don't make a point to contradict me. Gotta love this site, I'm new here but the posters are all authentic, it's tough to find forums that aren't filled with trolls these days.

Let's get this thread a popping. If there's a way to make $$$ in the forex this is it!
 
Did you mean HGD = HKD?

Not many people here actively trade those 2 pairs.

Eur/Usd has been in a range for a while. I expect it to fall but a breakout in either direction is likely to pack a wallop.

I though you decided against trading currencies? Good to see you giving it a go. As you noticed it's much different than stocks!

Peter
 
wackypete2 said:
Did you mean HGD = HKD?

Not many people here actively trade those 2 pairs.

Eur/Usd has been in a range for a while. I expect it to fall but a breakout in either direction is likely to pack a wallop.

I though you decided against trading currencies? Good to see you giving it a go. As you noticed it's much different than stocks!

Peter
Click to expand...

Yea HKD what I meant.

I didn't give up currencies, I was just very skeptical of the potential upside considering my efficiency but after I found out about all the accessible margin I realized it's the way to go. I'm only using a practice account but it's up from 50,000 to 60,000 + and this is my first green day since I got this on Thursday. :LOL:.

IT does take a lot more patience and perseverance than stocks than stocks though, considering the number of currencies you can trade is so very limited.

About the Euro, I agree with you 100%. I expect the bull - bear transition will take a while to materialize but when it does I anticipate the Euro will encounter some rapid downward leaps. As for now it's showing a lot of strength, I don't expect it to continue illustrating such strength through the entire year.
 
Looks like the GBP / USD could get bullish for February we had a pretty clean reversal this week and there may be a great deal of money soon to be invested to burn the shorts... I read that the Pound and the Franc may start getting competitive as well which could assist the momentum we're seeing.
 
Mr. Crabs said:
Looks like the GBP / USD could get bullish for February we had a pretty clean reversal this week and there may be a great deal of money soon to be invested to burn the shorts... I read that the Pound and the Franc may start getting competitive as well which could assist the momentum we're seeing.
Click to expand...

Up 54 pips on GBP / USD on top of the bounce yesterday, looks as if that trend is being confirmed.
 
20 pips up shorting the AUD/USD could pull off a great reversal too but no end in sight to this super rapid drop. Looks like someones rigging the markets for me.
 
Mr. Crabs said:
20 pips up shorting the AUD/USD could pull off a great reversal too but no end in sight to this super rapid drop. Looks like someones rigging the markets for me.
Click to expand...

No clean bounce looks like this correction isn't over yet.
 
Euro's going down hard against the GBP, 20 pips + so far, huge downside potential, I mean absolutely enormous.

If we've seen the top here this could be the start of a very lucrative downtrend.
 
To start off this week I can't find any swings I can hold any confidence in. At the moment I'm looking at the EUR / USD and thinking that shorting it may be the best option I can think of. At that it might only swing 30 pips or so... But I think after that last random and rapid over-extension there might be a decent bit of room to the downside, 50+ pips would be a decent sized move. I guess I'll have to wait and see when an opportunity presents itself. I'm surprisingly lost for speculations this week, this is extraordinarily uncommon.
 
Short eur/usd would be the best swing play I think. I agree though it's tough for swing players. I might also look to buy eur/jpy if it drops back to the 122.00-50 area.

Peter
 
Good call on the JPY. I've got to agree with you on that one. The EUR bounce against it does look over-extended, and there's no reason the JPY shouldn't bounce, and I expect the EUR to be particularly bearish this quarter. But of course calling these very short-term swings is difficult for sure.
 
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Sentiment seems to be the cyprus bailout is eur positive but I don't see how. The bailout terms are horrendous for large depositors and despite what the news is saying that the crisis is resolved, it most certainly has not been. The banking system in Cyprus will never be the same and may take decades to recover. The fear is the same type of solution will spill over to other countries. IMO, there will be a flight from eur in favor of other currencies.

Peter
 
wackypete2 said:
Sentiment seems to be the cyprus bailout is eur positive but I don't see how. The bailout terms are horrendous for large depositors and despite what the news is saying that the crisis is resolved, it most certainly has not been. The banking system in Cyprus will never be the same and may take decades to recover. The fear is the same type of solution will spill over to other countries. IMO, there will be a flight from eur in favor of other currencies.

Peter
Click to expand...

Agreed I think this bailout does nothing but restore short term confidence, long-term I don't see why bankers would keep money they have the liberty to stash in other currencies in the Euro-system. Swiss or American are simply preferable markets for the times. Both more lucrative and sustainable.

I think Europe is on a subtle withdraw. Soon this 'fact' will become more and more in the face of international markets. But as for now it has to stay on the DL so savvy money can retreat from the hopeless battle which is the Euro-system. It's simply too vulnerable to debt with so many competing nations tied together monetarily in the same system.

IMO Europe is better off keeping their nations fiscally sovereign. I expect there are millions of Europeans that agree with me.
 
Mr. Crabs said:
EUR was looking strong out of the gate, now it's starting to look weak.
Click to expand...

Not sure which gate you were using. It's been going down hill for quite a while.

159002d1364217058-ultimate-forex-speculation-gate.jpg
 

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