trendie's Blog

[trendie]

Sept 22nd

OUT at 1.7890! Thats +75. (agg = +36 )

What a day. The market mved up, before toppling.
Since I placed my trade, the market rose by over 150 points against me, then fell by 150, plus the 75 I made.
So, over a range of 375, I took 75. Scary, as I dont like the deep red I was in.
However, during the day, the Three Little Indians pattern, ( Street Smarts ) appeared, which looks like a Head and Shoulders. Also, there was a furter Spike and Ledge today. The Spike was the high at 1.8150, the ledge being the low of 1.8055 and 1.8115. The Ledge broke around noon. This pattern, similar to Ross Hook, would have triggered an intra-day short at 1.8055. This would have been a better and less worrying trade to make.

 

[ChowClown]

wd Trendie! Those NR setups are interesting. Have you received the complimentary Traders mag yet? Good article in there about volatility breakouts using a similar 3 bar range. Some useful backtest stats too across several instruments which look reasonable.

 

[trendie]

FX: GBPUSD; wc Oct 10th 2005

Cant stay away. Am still experimenting with indicators, despite me not getting any real results.
Much as I like my MAs, I want to master these darned indicators. Some of them must work, for goodness sake.

Anyway; this time I will just post trades, and see where they go.
( incidentally, I am toying with Stochs )
Have decided to post here rather than the interesting Live Cable Trading thread, because I dont want badtrader fading me !! ( as much for his bank-balance as for mine ; ) )

Also, this time: I resolve to post at least 50 trades before deciding if I should continue or not. ( famous last words )

 

[trendie]

FX: w/c Nov 7th

Back for one week only real-timing it.
The more I think about it, the more I like the use of Stochs to identify entries and exits in context of MAs.
I am going to persist with this. Essentially, I am still using Moving Averages, but am looking to get better entries.

EMAs: 55 ( there are those Fibs again ), and 100.
Stochs; standard settings 21,3,3.

Entries:
SHORT: only take the overbought Stochs ( dipping below 80 from above ) when the price is below the EMAs.
LONG: only take oversold Stochs ( rising above 20 from below ) when the price is above EMAs.

Exits: more difficult. so will try 2 lots. One lot out after X pips. And ride the rest.

TimeFrames: mostly 15m, 30m, 60m. Possibly 4h.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006. w/c Jan 2nd

Here we go again. Possible 6 consecutive weeks of trading before next project.

As per last post regarding strategy. ( Nov 6th post )

EMAs: 55, 21and 100.
Stochs; standard settings 21,3,3.

TimeFrames: mostly 15m, 30m, 60m. Possibly 4h.

09:50: Currently: In an uptrend. Looking for a retracement.

Jan-06-06:
11:20: Trend indeterminate. Looking for direction, but bias towards UP, as thats where it was going.
havent traded anything, combination of other things to deal with.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. w/c Jan 9th

08:10:
Overall trend: UP. looking for a retracement.
11:34: LONG 2lots; 1.7658. SL=1.7628. (Risk=60)

14:22: Seems to be stuck. Narrowing triangle forming, so a potential breakout. However, since it hasnt moved, if it falls, best to move StopLoss to LOD; ie; 1.7640. (Risk=36)

15:15: Stopped out for -36.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 10th

10:28:
Market did go up, eventually, going past my notional profit target of 35 pips for the first lot.
Notes: I entered too early, and then didnt give enough room, with just 30 pips as stop-loss. Dont want to trade without stops. Either I need to take smaller profits, or allow more room.
Or scale in.
( market did dip early morning to 1.7620, which was close to my preferred entry of 1.7610, as per my Live Cable Trading post )
Analysis: right direction / right plan. bad entry and / or bad stop-loss amount.

Market is UP. Looking for a retracement to enter a Long.

14:34: LONG 1.7637 1lot.
16:32: OCO set at 1.7637 / 87. ( B/E or 50 pips )
17:03: stopped out for B/E.
Analysis: profit target was spuriously arrived at. Could have bagged 30 pips, by being conservative.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 11th

07:40.
Trend = DOWN. Looking for a retracement to go short.

18:52:
ealier today, late afternoon, placed LIMIT Order to go SHORT if 1.7635 hit.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 12th

07:42:
Trend = UP. Which is unfortunate, as my SHORT got triggered overnight. May keep it and see if the Big Ben triggers Long or Short to decide to bail out. Essentially risking something like 50 pips !!

09:40: got stopped out at 1.7700 for -65.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 9th-13th (weekly review)

First week: 3 trades. 3 Losses.
First pair: -(30 x 2) stopped out.
Second trade: -65.
Total = -125 for the week.
Average: -42.

Notes: oh well.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 16th

Paper-trading week on 15-min bars.

07:52 SHORT: 1.7754 1lot. ( anticipating Big Ben )
10:10: out at 1.7714 for +40.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 20th

07:35: Trend is down. Looking for retracement to short.

08:04: Short 2lots; 1.7564. SL=1.7589 (50 pips risk ( 2x25))
09:30: stopped out for -50. (25 2lots)

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 16th-20th (weekly review)

PANTS!!

3 trades in total.
1lot win of 40.
2lot loss of 25 pips = - 50.

Nett result= -10 for the week from 3 trades.

Average: = -4 per trade ( rounded up to nearest whole )

Total ( 2 weeks ): -135 from 6 trades: ( average: -23 pips per trade )

Notes: once I placed a trade, I failed to consdier it could be wrong and reverse. Also was trading shorter-term 5-mins, and should have had smaller profit targets, such as 20-25 per trade.
( was trading 5-mins, but still expected 60-min scale-profits )

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 23th

AM:
Shorted at 1.7755 2lots. ( 55-EMA on 15-mins )
stopped out for -30 ( -60 pips )

11:03: Note:
Need my head kicking in, as I (again) threw my rules out of the window. I think I get bored, and end up making up reasons just to be in the game.

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 24th

09:30: Long 1.7830. 2lots. SL = 30.
09:52: (the correct entry signal at 1.7845 occurs. 55EMA-15m)
11:33: out at 1.7837. +7 = 14 pips. ( waste of time )
12:30: FREAKING HELL. finally blows to the upside. could have got 25 from first lot. PATIENCE!!

 

[trendie]

FX: 2006.Cable. Jan 23th-27th (weekly review)

4 trades: 2 wins, 2 losses.
2lots loss = -30 x 2 = -60.
2lots wins = 7 x 2 = + 14.
Net= - 46.
Running total ( 3 weeks ) = - 181 from 10 trades. ( average= -19 per trade )

Notes: All you need is one pattern to make a living - LBR.

 

[trendie]

FX: Cable: w/c March 06. 2006. Vegas Tunnel test

Mar-07: curiousity. Vegas Tunnel method.
100EMA crossing price determines trade.
I will be using keltner channels and ATR to reduce chop.
( ie; when the 100EMA is crossed by Price I will initiate a trade. But the Stop And Reverse (SAR) will be 2ATR or Keltner channel away )

3 lots: 1st lot out after 35. 2nd lot out after 55. Ride the 3rd.
On each losing trade, add 1 lot, and exit on the 35.
TimeFrame: 15 mins.

There are other things, but I havent decided on them yet !!

Mar-07: 08:23: Go LONG 3lots if price hits 1.7500

11:07: moved potential entry to 1.7485.
12:30: moved potential Long entry to 1.7465.
15:00: moved to 1.7450.

 

[trendie]

FX: June 28th 2007

Well, having gone through my own blog, I have realised discipline, and the need to do something "right now" is my biggest problem.

and, having read through others blogs, and some public threads, I realise I ought to be a bit more open about my own journey.
(particularly fxwinners and Depth Trades threads, which have been quite enjoyable.)

I shall now recommence my trading-blog.
I shall indicate the following data on my posts.
"Instrument: Time-Frame: entry-price, risk-level/Stop-Loss, and later, exit point."

Since I am still an MA-X freak, the entries and exits will be disclosed immediately after they happen, unless I indicate an overnight stop-loss.

I still dont believe in Profit-objectives.
However, my main objective here is to explore the idea of "position-sizing", and each risk-level should represent the recommended 2% of capital.
After reading a Van Tharp book, I am curious about how my trading looks when seen in the context R-multiples. That is, viewing profits as a function of risk-taken.

 

[trendie]

w/c July 2nd

10:33AM
first trade of the week:

DAX; 5-mins. entry: SHORT 7945 9:06AM. (Stochastics slingshot) Exit: 7940 for +5 pips 10:20AM.
Note: good entry: went against me for no more than 10 pips; was 30 pips up at one point.
But it pulled back too close to my entry. Could have got 1R reward.

Risk: 20pips. (=2%) Reward= 0.25R. (accum: capital growth= 0.5% after 1 trade)

EDIT: (times are approx)
17:43: just cloed out 3 shorts against EURJPY.
first SHORT at 166.41 at 11:22. (positional, just in case I missed move)
second one at 166.65 at 12:31.
the third one, the optimnal one at 166.80 at 12:55.
average=166.62.
Closed out at 166.62 for B/E.
166.41; Risk=50 pips = 1%; exit at -21: -0.4R
166.65; Risk=50 pips = 1%; exit at +3: scratch trade
166.80; Risk=30 pips = 1%; exit at +18: +0.6R
Net = +0.2R. of 1% = 0.2% gain.

Note: the earlier trades had longer risks because I didnt want to miss move. the third one was the optimal one, and needed less risk.
although it was a technical success, ie; +0.2R, it was factually a B/E trade.
I am still nervous about missing moves, so place a positional trade, which ultimately reduces my risk/reward.
I am still looking at 30-min charts.

summary:
4 trades: (+0.25R; -0.4R; + 0R; +0.6R) / 4; nett = +0.11R over 4 trades.
capital growth = +0.7%. over 4 trades.

NB: alos my MT-4 platform failed on me. Had to load up NorthFinances and relaod myu chart settings. NorFin do not have Dow!!

EDIT: 18:47.
Just thought about it, its silly showing a B/E trade as positive. I should aggregate the trade results!!

So, 4 trades; 1 win, 3 B/E. Capital growth: +0.25%.

 

[trendie]

July 3rd 2007

2 trades:

Short EURJPY 166.63 at 12:18. Risk=30 pips=1%.
Short GBPUSD 2.0166 at 13:27. Risk=30 pips=1%.

The EURJPY bailed out with +34. (very lucky here. Went for 30 pips, pinched an extra 4. almost at bottom before it rallied.)
overall good trade, as it didnt go against me by more than 12 pips.

The GBPUSD closed out at 0.
showed a narrow-ledge, which seemed a good bet. But it didtn do anything, and I couldnt even get it to get out for a couple of pips. B/E exit.
overall good trade, as it didnt go against me by more than 10 pips.

EURJPY=34/30 = 1.1R= 1.1% gain on risk.
GBPUSD=0/30 = 0R.

no index trades. Ibex was very flat, and the spike scared me, so didnt want to play.
DAX rose sharply at the start of the day, and then flat-lined. no volatility.

end result: capital gain=1.35%over 2 days and 6 trades.
(2 wins, 4 b/e.)

EDIT: GBPUSD was traded on 30-mins, EURJPY on 15-mins.