Trend Strength Market Views

[fx__ninja]

Trend Strength Market Views

Hello Traders. I decided to start this thread to share my market views and trading concepts. I watch several pairs including AU, GU, EU, U/chf, AY, GY, EY and UY.

Please feel free to stop by and leave your constructive comments.

thanks in advance.

 

[fx__ninja]

I am anticipating some buying of UY within the month as I suspect BOJ will not allow it to remain below 90.00 for any extended length of time.
Presently i am building a long position with support just below 85.00
if 85.00 is broken, i will make an assessment depending on the price action around the time of the break. I am using extremely low leverage.

Recently there was a similar type trade with with EY with support at 116.00
presently EY is above 125.00
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[fx__ninja]

GU pre - retail sales 12 18 08

i am anticipating a downside move in GU prior to the next retail sales release.

Daily Trend: still down
Intermediate and short term trend: Up

Resistance lvls are:
5590 - 6020
5640 - 5680

yesterday we had a simliar setup, however, the fundamental releases had more weight than the next UK rtl sales release.

good luck
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[fx__ninja]

charts

sorry guys...kinda hard to post in realtime on multiple forums.
i did post some charts on the FF site under the same thread name.

Trend Strength Market Views

 

[fx__ninja]

current mkt bias; a lil bit mixed . longer term trends still mostly down on risk aversion sentiment.

 

[fx__ninja]

someone was discussing how to gauge the strength of a trend. the following is a post i made on thsi topic:

hi guys. i saw an older post on another thread that asked the question of how to determine the strength of a trend.
we use some propritary methods to help give us clues about trend strength and trend exhaustion.
the following charts are 30 min charts from mid to last week.

we have programmed our software to help identify "potential swing points"
for the timeframe shown.
the program marks the chart either on the bar close or within the next 1-2 bars after what it determines to be a potentially significant area of S/R for the TF.

in the 3 charts u can see the PSP markings.

we did close out GU shorts and take counter trend longs on GU and UY, scaling out the UY trade (profits) starting from 89.30 with the bulk taken after the PSP was printed.
The GU CT long was closed out based on mkt correlations.

We did not take the Gold long, butwe will be wathcing for a retracement setup to possibly go long inline with what we believe to be the main trend for now.
***Also not shown here is an EU long; late filled at 2789 with the bulk of profits taken at 100+ pips. i'll try to post chart later.

If anyone wants more info on how we conduct our analysis just PM me.

 

[fx__ninja]

eu chart

eu chart

 

[fx__ninja]

we had ecad short from 5825 ealier in ny session then supports at 5700 5740 in anticipation of upcoming canadian release

 

[fx__ninja]

EU trade recap
Buy EU in the 2735 area
• CT trade – looking for a move back up past 1.30
• Trgts 2770 for scalp
• 2nd trgt TSP @ 2830+
• Hold remainder BE with support at 2700

2. Short side scalp from 2840 area [ current long still open ]
• Trgts 2810/2800
• SL 2865
• Risk 20% of original long position profits
• Locked in 5 pips rest to BE
• 2810 hit

3. Short side scalp to protect long; one more time. Same number set.
risk 10% of long side profits [ current long still open ]
Longer term looking to hold if support builds above 2780; looking for a BO above H4 TL

 

[fx__ninja]

sorry guys... it gets hard for us to post "everywhere" in realtime.


Friday Recap



Buy EU in the 2735 area
• CT trade – looking for a move back up past 1.30
• Trgts 2770 for scalp
• 2nd trgt TSP @ 2830+
• Hold remainder BE with support at 2700

2. Short side scalp from 2840 area [ current long still open ]
• Trgts 2810/2800
• SL 2865
• Risk 20% of original long position profits
• Locked in 5 pips rest to BE
• 2810 hit
3. Short side scalp to protect long; one more time. Same number set.
risk 10% of long side profits [ current long still open ]
Longer term looking to hold if support builds above 2780; looking for a BO above H4 TL

====

EU long Target was a move back above 1.30 EU overnite hi: 2940 area
MAX SL was 2850 for lockin on Remaining portion of long from 2735 area

===Looking to scale in GU Short
Ranges for Resistance: 4560 /4670/4762
This is for a potential move back towards 1.41 and lower…no rush can wait for ISM release. We will look to see price action after ISM vs the 4560 and 4600 levels
Any entries prior to the release should be miniscule. We will update later

====

Mkt move fasted … shorted a small size pre –release from just below 4500…took it as a scalp for 50 pips.
We will revise GU analysis after the ISM

====

fast mkt:
AU Resistance in the 6650 Area
Looking for a move back down towards 6400 and possibly lower.
Will review for entry after the ISM. We scalped a small size short for 25 pips during the quick move down pre-release.


=====
ay R 60.80 area

Can short small size pre ISM release or just wait.
Looking for a move back to 60.00 and lower

====




we took half at respective S/R and left remainder BE + a few; closed out remainder before end of Friday.

we also had UY short form 91.90+ area w R @ 92.40/60
we took small profit on that and closed it out.
it may gap down sunday but we chose to close any remaing shorts.

=================


we have plenty of charts but i need to clear the posting of referring links with the moderator first. i will let u guys know...

=====================
END

 

[fx__ninja]

looking at EG long.
support lvls 8835 / 880 / 8770
trgt ~ 90 pips

 

[fx__ninja]

ucad short. scale in. R lvls 2900 / 2008 hi for a move we will trail down

 

[fx__ninja]

eu support lvls 2550 and 2470 for gap fill. exercise caution.

 

[dznmrd]

I believe in strength and weakness of currencies to trade, i use it like a filter to prevent a bad trade.