Trend Simplicity

LondonUSTrader

Junior member
I am also thinking of buying this system. Have youo used it? What do you think??

You should never buy anyone's system. If it was that good why would anyone be selling it? You don't know if the results are based on hypothetical trades, in which case they are meaningless, or real trades.

Even if the results are based on real trades which have been audited (unlikely) there is still a large risk in real market performance being different from historical performance.

This is due to trader effects, overoptimisation and curve fitting to name but a few potential problems.
 

minx

Well-known member
I believe they were selling x number of systems to raise capital to start their own commodity pool. I think they might now have this set up and are CTA/CPO registered.

I've been watching them for a while as I'm trying to do a similar thing (not selling my systems but the CTA thing) and I wanted to see how/if their performance changed by much after they started their fund. If I recall correctly they do have a slightly odd way of calculating annual return, I think they include all profits from open positions on Jan 1st as a return for that year.
 

minx

Well-known member
Ok here is the email from Jan 3rd: Note the statement at the bottom. I guess I did recall correctly :)


2007 Year to Date Trend Shark at $41,302 on a $30K account (37.67% gain)*.

2007 Year to Date Trend Simplicity at $52,728 on a $35K account (50.65% gain)*.

2007 Year to Date Trend Intensity at $70,756 on a $40K account (76.89% gain)*.

2007 Year to Date Trend Legacy (all three systems combined) at $159,321 on a 100K account (59.32% gain)*.
*Results include open trades carried over from 2006, closed trades and minimum recommended account size.
 

raubrey

Newbie
Trend Simplicity trading System

You should never buy anyone's system. If it was that good why would anyone be selling it? You don't know if the results are based on hypothetical trades, in which case they are meaningless, or real trades.

Even if the results are based on real trades which have been audited (unlikely) there is still a large risk in real market performance being different from historical performance.

This is due to trader effects, overoptimisation and curve fitting to name but a few potential problems.

I wish I had listened to you. I lost my shirt. this system is a scam. To all interested...do not buy this system. I lost 90% of my retirement fund and the $10,000 cost of the system. You are better off lighting your cigars with $100 bills.
 

minx

Well-known member
You are correct, this system is a bunch of ^&%%#$.
I lost 90% of my funds and the $10,000 to buy it.

Sorry to hear that. Can you elaborate on what happened? Was it credit-crunch volatility? Inaccurate fills? Was the system just curve-fit nonsense that happened to work well for a year in their walk-forward?

Done mean to pick over the bones of your misfortune but its always a good learning experience for other people thinking of buying trading systems from vendors.
 

raubrey

Newbie
Sorry to hear that. Can you elaborate on what happened? Was it credit-crunch volatility? Inaccurate fills? Was the system just curve-fit nonsense that happened to work well for a year in their walk-forward?

Done mean to pick over the bones of your misfortune but its always a good learning experience for other people thinking of buying trading systems from vendors.

This was an automated trading system trading two of the three offered platforms over a 10-month period, Shark and Simplicity. Daily signals are generated the night before and entries and exits are automatically filled. However, if the fill or exit is traded only once for one contract the system counts that as a successful fill, even though the other 99.9% never got a fill or exit. Thus the profits reported are not representative of real life and greatly over exaggerated.

So no, it was not credit-crunch volatility as this occurred over 10 months and I stopped trading about 4 months ago. Each time I contacted my broker about the downtrend he said to stay the course that it was only a draw down.
Inaccurate fills? The actual fills and exits were frequently different than the references used to generate their profit statements on the web site, significantly over stating the profits. As I lost money over this period of time the web site was reporting significant gains in both trading platforms I was using.
Was the system just curve-fit nonsense that happened to work well for a year in their walk-forward? Definitely nonsense of some kind !!

Even more importantly, and this is very significant—very important.
Chris and Jason DO NOT use this trading system with their own personal funds.
I specifically asked Chris this question about 6 months after I started using the system.
If the system works and works well, why are they not using their own money to trade the system??
 

minx

Well-known member
However, if the fill or exit is traded only once for one contract the system counts that as a successful fill, even though the other 99.9% never got a fill or exit. Thus the profits reported are not representative of real life and greatly over exaggerated.

That seems to be a common complaint of systems, they assume that by the mkt touching a price that everyone gets their 100 lot filled....

I'm surprised the owners arent trading their own money if its so bloody good, what a red flag that is!!

Did they disclose the system logic to you?

When you said you were quitting did they explain what was going wrong?
 

sheket

Newbie
Hey Guys,

found this forum while looking into how Trend Simplicity was doing (been following them since early 2000).

I'm not surprised their system faltered during these times (which I expect most systems to, due to the unbearable swings and uncharted waters commodities have taken over the past 6 months). However for whatever it's worth Trend Simplicity did very well in the early mid 2000's and I did make quite a bit off their trade recommendations (however I cherry picked them).

In regards to filling up........ to avoid not getting filled simply use a slightly lower/higher (2 pts/tics or so) entry point and that should cover that issue.

I also had a system on the Canadian Dollar which I profited nicely for quite some time (until Mid 2000's around 2004 or so) and was profitable as far back as I back tested (Note: while I was using it, it worked great). I then discovered poker and that was it for me in futures.

Recently I became curious as to how Trend Simplicity was doing (which eventually led me here). In the back of my mind I always though such systems would falter in these types of economic uncertainty..........markets unseen in nearly 80 yrs. I also tested my own trading formulas on the Canadian dollar which worked great up to the point where the Canadian Dollar started having swings of 200-300 points in a day (unheard of before this past year) and accordingly faltered with great porportions.

My point is: Trend Simplicity wasn't a complete crap of a system, but rather 1 that will only work in certain market conditions (which will return, but not for some forseeable years from now). The current market we are experiencing is quite rare and NO system should currently be used to predict profitable trades.

Hope this gives some insight to those who think they can blindly apply trading recommendations in any market.



Ps. Personally I think the market is still far from its' bottom (I do envision the DJ to a low 5000 figure and possibly dropping into the high 4000's). Then if I see things stablize for a year or two, I might consider re-entering the markets using such trade recommending software and I'm sure they will once again prove profitable.........but only if the correct type of stock atmosphere is present.
 
 
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