Trend Simplicity

LondonUSTrader

Junior member
21 7
I am also thinking of buying this system. Have youo used it? What do you think??
You should never buy anyone's system. If it was that good why would anyone be selling it? You don't know if the results are based on hypothetical trades, in which case they are meaningless, or real trades.

Even if the results are based on real trades which have been audited (unlikely) there is still a large risk in real market performance being different from historical performance.

This is due to trader effects, overoptimisation and curve fitting to name but a few potential problems.
 

minx

Well-known member
328 10
I believe they were selling x number of systems to raise capital to start their own commodity pool. I think they might now have this set up and are CTA/CPO registered.

I've been watching them for a while as I'm trying to do a similar thing (not selling my systems but the CTA thing) and I wanted to see how/if their performance changed by much after they started their fund. If I recall correctly they do have a slightly odd way of calculating annual return, I think they include all profits from open positions on Jan 1st as a return for that year.
 

minx

Well-known member
328 10
Ok here is the email from Jan 3rd: Note the statement at the bottom. I guess I did recall correctly :)


2007 Year to Date Trend Shark at $41,302 on a $30K account (37.67% gain)*.

2007 Year to Date Trend Simplicity at $52,728 on a $35K account (50.65% gain)*.

2007 Year to Date Trend Intensity at $70,756 on a $40K account (76.89% gain)*.

2007 Year to Date Trend Legacy (all three systems combined) at $159,321 on a 100K account (59.32% gain)*.
*Results include open trades carried over from 2006, closed trades and minimum recommended account size.
 

raubrey

Newbie
4 0
Trend Simplicity trading System

You should never buy anyone's system. If it was that good why would anyone be selling it? You don't know if the results are based on hypothetical trades, in which case they are meaningless, or real trades.

Even if the results are based on real trades which have been audited (unlikely) there is still a large risk in real market performance being different from historical performance.

This is due to trader effects, overoptimisation and curve fitting to name but a few potential problems.
I wish I had listened to you. I lost my shirt. this system is a scam. To all interested...do not buy this system. I lost 90% of my retirement fund and the $10,000 cost of the system. You are better off lighting your cigars with $100 bills.
 

minx

Well-known member
328 10
You are correct, this system is a bunch of ^&%%#$.
I lost 90% of my funds and the $10,000 to buy it.
Sorry to hear that. Can you elaborate on what happened? Was it credit-crunch volatility? Inaccurate fills? Was the system just curve-fit nonsense that happened to work well for a year in their walk-forward?

Done mean to pick over the bones of your misfortune but its always a good learning experience for other people thinking of buying trading systems from vendors.
 

raubrey

Newbie
4 0
Sorry to hear that. Can you elaborate on what happened? Was it credit-crunch volatility? Inaccurate fills? Was the system just curve-fit nonsense that happened to work well for a year in their walk-forward?

Done mean to pick over the bones of your misfortune but its always a good learning experience for other people thinking of buying trading systems from vendors.
This was an automated trading system trading two of the three offered platforms over a 10-month period, Shark and Simplicity. Daily signals are generated the night before and entries and exits are automatically filled. However, if the fill or exit is traded only once for one contract the system counts that as a successful fill, even though the other 99.9% never got a fill or exit. Thus the profits reported are not representative of real life and greatly over exaggerated.

So no, it was not credit-crunch volatility as this occurred over 10 months and I stopped trading about 4 months ago. Each time I contacted my broker about the downtrend he said to stay the course that it was only a draw down.
Inaccurate fills? The actual fills and exits were frequently different than the references used to generate their profit statements on the web site, significantly over stating the profits. As I lost money over this period of time the web site was reporting significant gains in both trading platforms I was using.
Was the system just curve-fit nonsense that happened to work well for a year in their walk-forward? Definitely nonsense of some kind !!

Even more importantly, and this is very significant—very important.
Chris and Jason DO NOT use this trading system with their own personal funds.
I specifically asked Chris this question about 6 months after I started using the system.
If the system works and works well, why are they not using their own money to trade the system??
 

minx

Well-known member
328 10
However, if the fill or exit is traded only once for one contract the system counts that as a successful fill, even though the other 99.9% never got a fill or exit. Thus the profits reported are not representative of real life and greatly over exaggerated.
That seems to be a common complaint of systems, they assume that by the mkt touching a price that everyone gets their 100 lot filled....

I'm surprised the owners arent trading their own money if its so bloody good, what a red flag that is!!

Did they disclose the system logic to you?

When you said you were quitting did they explain what was going wrong?
 
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