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Dentalfloss

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 18 February 2020 - ADM ISI


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Ostwald, Marc
08:40 (8 minutes ago)

to Marc





- Apple sales warning due to coronavirus impact to dominate, crowd out
UK labour and US survey data points; smattering of central bank
speakers; new German 2-yr

- Financial repression induced FOMO TINA complacency about coronavirus
does not obviate need to consider "whither 'just in time' production?"

- UK: solid employment gain expected, Unemployment Rate to remain at
cyclical low; wage growth seen slowing, but base effects key

- USA: NY Fed Manufacturing seen fractionally higher... any coronavirus
effect? NAHB to underline housing sector in good health

- Charts: Apple, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Nasdaq 100 emini & India
Electricity Generation

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-18-february-2020/


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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Once again, the statistical schedule is not overwhelming, featuring the Dec/Jan UK labour market data, along with the German ZEW and US NY Fed & NAHB surveys, accompanied by Canadian Manufacturing Sales; none of which are really going to change the view that the Coronavirus spread remains the key near term risk factor and potential disruptor for the global economy. That said the reaction to Apple's revenue warning late yesterday can only be described as a brief shrug of the shoulders (see attached charts), as markets opt to assume the disruption to production will be short-lived - only time will tell. However investors would do well to think about how this major supply chain disruption along with trade tensions and protectionism (above all in the security & tech arena) may be put to the sword, or at the least create major headwinds, for the 'just in time' operating principle which has dominated in production businesses since the end of the Cold War. Otherwise Fed's Kashkari and Riksbank's Ingves are the only scheduled central bank speakers for today, while Germany sells a new March-2022 benchmark Schatz.

** U.K. - Dec/Jan Employment / Earnings **
- The Sep-Nov FLS Employment were impressive given that the 208K increase was strong by any standard, and above all given the then extant Brexit and election related uncertainties, even if a sizeable part of the increase reflected typical seasonal cyclicality. Today's Oct-Dec data are seen posting a lower but still robust gain of 160K, with the Unemployment Rate expected to hold at its cyclical low of 3.8%, i.e. well below the BoE's assumed natural / sustainable rate of 4.5%. While Vacancies are below their recent peak (last 805K), they will likely remain at very high levels by any historical standard. Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to slip further to 3.0% y/y headline and 3.3% ex-Bonus, though this is primarily due to adverse base effects (given a Q4 2018 jump to 3.7% y/y from 3.0% at end Q3 2018). While today's data is of interest, the more important short-term questions (leaving aside coronavirus impacts) are: a) the extent of any post-election 'sugar rush', b) what boost from the 11 March Budget, and c) EU trade negotiations.

** U.S.A. - February NY Fed Manufacturing & NAHB Housing Index **
- While the NY region is not a good proxy for the manufacturing sector as a whole, this along with the Philly Fed survey and the PMIs on Friday should offer some idea of the extent to which the potential for the Coronavirus spread to disrupt the numerous supply chains in the sector that are heavily dependent on China is weighing on sentiment, which only got a very limited and short-lived boost from the US/China 'phase one' trade deal. Little change is expected at 5.0 from January's 4.8. The US housing sector is in good health, regardless of the often very erratic fluctuations in Starts (due tomorrow) and the various sales measures, and the NAHB Index is seen unchanged at 75, just below the post GFC high of 76 posted in December.
 

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