Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Oct 11, 2019

ditto....and pop

Dentalfloss · Oct 11, 2019

2958 is a devfined breakout point..needs to be supp

Dentalfloss · Oct 11, 2019

Dentalfloss · Oct 11, 2019

Dentalfloss · Oct 11, 2019

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 11 October 2019 - ADM ISI

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Ostwald, Marc

08:42 (1 hour ago)

to Marc

- US/China trade and Brexit talks front and centre, leaving modest run of data
and some Fed/ECB speak sidelined; Turkey Current Account, India Production,
Canada Unemployment, US Import Prices and prov. Michigan Sentiment

- Market reaction to US/China and Brexit news underlines volatility now
embedded whatever the outcome; central banks should heed lesson of not
using monetary policy to try and shield markets from crazy politics

- Canada labour data; labour demand volatile in recent months, modest
employment gain seen, focus on participation rate and wages

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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A rather underwhelming schedule of data to end the week, accompanied by some Fed & ECB speakers, but the focus qill very clearly be on the outcome of the latest round of US/China trade talks, and whatever emerges in terms of what happens with Brexit talks ahead of next week's EU summit. Ahead of the latter, Merkel and Macron will meet on Sunday, with Poland holding its general election on Sunday, where the only question appears to be the size of the PiS victory/majority. Statistically there are Singapore Retail Sales, Malaysia Industrial Production and Turkish Current Account to digest ahead of Canadian labour data, and US Import Prices and prov. Michigan Sentiment. Italy also holds its mid-month auction of BTPs, following on from the very successful USD 3-part syndication mid-week.

The lesson from yesterday's market reactions to 'positive' US/China Trade and UK/EU/Brexit talks is that markets are in for a period of considerable instability as we travel through Q4, regardless of whether the current optimism proves to be well founded, or founders yet again on the incessant overreach of this moronic crop of two-bit populist politicians that stalk the world. Above all on Brexit, it should be remembered that a deal between the Johnson cabinet and the EU only 'has legs' if it is passed by parliament. It is also a lesson for central banks that attempting to use monetary policy tools to try and protect and economies from politically charged volatility are equally guilty of overreach, especially having created all the asset price bubble pressures that they have, above all the numbing effect on due diligence on risk assessments of financial repression. The risk of an error or errors have never been higher, and ironically, more gridlock may be the only outcome that keeps volatility relatively subdued.

** Canada - September Unemployment **
- Employment growth has overall been solid in Canada this year, though very erratic in recent months, surging 81.1K in August, after declining in 3 of the 5 prior months, with the rise in the participation rate to 65.8% in August perhaps most emblematic. The September report is expected to see the Unemployment Rate steady at 5.7%, with Employment up 5.7K, and an unchanged participation rate. The focus will remain on Wage growth, which is expected to remain elevated at 3.8% y/y, but below July's cyclical peak of 4.5%.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================