Trading with point and figure

dax into the new year

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in an area of trend supp and prev breakout area
aqua is 10511-10534...
10700 is horizontal res
from 10600 down to 10511 there was lots of res on the way up...should act as supp
 
spx into the open
we are in a bounce area...lets see what happens

2rpz05d.gif

in a pivot area...so could bounce
 
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all three look to be in bounce areas
remeber...a bad bounce and shorts will be in for a kill
 
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Evening all.

Saudi has broken off relations with Iran, so expect oil
to rise. May head off any down move, I will wait and
see how the land lies.
 
My last timing analysis on the Dow/SPX had suspected a similar 2 week decline from Dec 7th to Dec 22nd as to that of around the August 10th to Aug 24th 2015 one.

The Market did decline but not like the August large price decline..but did so similarly in terms of time... The Low coming in Dec 21st.

The Market however did make a series of 3 large up and down moves within this time frame of over 2000 points. but the Dec 7th High still held.

My issue now is that the Prior July to August swing highs still hold...BUT also we have now had two lows come in on what I see as important timing dates...ie Aug 24th and the Recent December 21st Lows.

Often January 4th to 9th prove as important dates in the US Indexes...So I am also wondering if Jan 4th May become another main Low...

If the Market holds above the Dec 21st Low (17113) either on Jan 4th or this week.. then...I would suspect a possible strong rally..

My Next Main Cycle is about Jan 24th that I am suspecting as some sort of High...either another swing high or NEW all time High..

If this occurs, then...I also question could this become a Major new high that then sees the start of a major decline for 2016..

If However we see a break below the 17113 Dec 21st Low... then I would suspect a continued decline to at least January 24th..

My problem is that that Market did not fall as much as I expected from Dec 7th..that I was expecting would be more bearish than the July / August swing high cycles.....and the market is still closer to those Prior 2015 highs.... than the Aug 24th Low..and I am wondering are those prior highs still going to hold or be bearish cycles..that maybe stronger than the Aug 24th Low cycle.
 
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catch a falling knife
China down 7%..trading halted
weak manufacturing data
 
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That has been some decline since 1 am UK on the Dow....365 points down so far and its only 8.20 am...

17488 high to 17123 as I write... The Prior lows made on Dec 21st of 17113 look like being tested.

I have 3 cycles this week of interest...that may suggest 4th 6th and weekend 10th/11th that may be a triple bottom forming from today..

but I think if Dec 21st Low breaks... I suspect the market is to remain longer term bearish..

I cannot see any indication of a FOMC report this Wednesday Dentist.. at least for the USA..

Reports out today..some Europe and USA..UK time

***** most important ones indicated


11 min EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 55.0 54.9
16 min EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.6 51.6
09.00 ***** EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov) 0.6%
09:30 GBP ***** Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 52.7 52.7
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (Nov) 69.65K 69.63K
09:30 GBP Mortgage Lending (Nov) 3.70B 3.63B
12:00 BRL Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 43.8
13:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Dec)

14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.3
15:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.7% 1.0%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 49.6 51.3
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec) 48.9
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 49.0 48.6
15:00 USD ***** ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec) 35.0 35.5
15:30 MXN Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 53.00
16:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction 0.260%
16:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 0.550%
17:00 BRL Trade Balance (Dec) 5.69B 1.20B
20:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions -26.7K
20:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions -30.3K
20:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 192.9K
20:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 26.4K
20:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -95.2K
20:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions


Main USA Reports UK time..for 6th Jan Wednesday...FOMC normally is at 19.00 hrs UK time..I cannot see any FOMC report listed..

14:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Dec) 53.5
14:45 USD Services PMI (Dec) 53.7
15:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% 1.5%
15:00 USD Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Dec) 58.6 58.2
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 55.0
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Dec) 57.5
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 56.0 55.9
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Dec) 50.3
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.629M
15:30 USD EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 1.795M
15:30 USD Gasoline Inventories 0.925M
23:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
Click to expand...


Yahoos Economic reports USA time

Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Jan 4 10:00 AM Construction Spending Nov - 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% -
Jan 4 10:00 AM ISM Index Dec - 47.0 49.0 48.6 -
Jan 5 2:00 PM Auto Sales Dec - NA NA 5.7M -
Jan 5 2:00 PM Truck Sales Dec - NA NA 8.7M -
Jan 5 2:00 PM Truck Sales Dec - NA NA 8.7M -
Jan 6 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/02 - NA NA 7.3% -
Jan 6 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/02 - NA NA NA -
Jan 6 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Dec - 200K 190K 217K -
Jan 6 8:30 AM Trade Balance Nov - -$45.2B -$44.7B -$43.9B -
Jan 6 10:00 AM Factory Orders Nov - 0.1% -0.2% 1.5% -
Jan 6 10:00 AM ISM Services Dec - 56.0 56.4 55.9 -
Jan 6 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/02 - NA NA 2.629M -
Jan 7 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Dec - NA NA -39.0% -
Jan 7 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/02 - NA NA 287K -
Jan 7 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/26 - NA NA 2198K -
Jan 7 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/02 - NA NA -58 bcf -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Dec - 200K 200K 211K -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec - NA NA NA -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec - 190K 194K 197K -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Dec - NA NA 5.0% -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Dec - NA NA 0.2% -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Dec - 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Average Workweek Dec - NA NA 34.5 -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Dec - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Jan 8 8:30 AM Average Workweek Dec - 34.5 34.5 34.5 -
Jan 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Nov - -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -
Jan 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Nov - $19.1B $18.5B $16.0B
Click to expand...





A great start for the new year
Fomc minutes on Wednesday
Nfp on Friday

Minor Downtrends on indices and we will see if support comes in
An excellent week in store
Click to expand...
 
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