Trading with point and figure

as we said....above 57.50 a dog

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price movement from Thursday 10.am/uk to Friday close
a wide area of support
starts goin negative if 1145-11470 is rez on the bounce

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Week Ahead: Data & Events - Video Preview & Highlights - 25 February to 1 March 2019 - ADM ISI


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Ostwald, Marc
07:39 (10 minutes ago)



to Marc






The Week Ahead - Brief overview: 25 February to 01 March 2019

As February ends, the week ahead has plenty of G7 economic data, an array of central bank speakers and testimony, plenty of corporate earnings in Europe and the USA, as well as the second highest ever single week total US Treasury bill & coupon issuance ($311 Bln). Eminently politics be that the Brexit disarray and May's decision to postpone the 'meaningful vote' until mid-March, China/US Trade discussions / hopes, US Section 232 (i.e. auto tariffs), a second summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un, or the broader cloud of torpor and tension in the EU (intra- and national) will account for a significant volume of the 'mood music' or potential 'tape bombs. The week brings two days of testimony from Powell, the combined advance / provisional US Q4 GDP report, along with Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, and 'catch ups' on Personal Income/PCE and Factory Goods Orders, along with the ISM that is accompanied by Manufacturing PMIs around the globe, Eurozone CPI and the usual end of month rush of statistics, including Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Japan.

Preview:

..........................................................................

MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
 
Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 25 February 2019 - ADM ISI





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Ostwald, Marc
09:00 (51 minutes ago)



to Marc






- Politics and central bank policy outlooks to dominate day's narrative in
the absence of major data; US kicks off hefty week for Treasury borrowing

- Central bank 'dovish' pivot far more negative than markets' positive spin
suggests

- Good morning audio:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-25-february/

- Week Ahead video:

- Investing Channel weekly video 'Wilful blindness, wishful seeing and
a deep sense of unease'

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The day's calendar of data and events is modest, and even if it was more substantial, it would probably be subsumed to political developments, specifically Trump's push back on the next set of China trade tariffs and associated optimism on a 'deal', and UK PM May's decision to delay the next 'meaningful vote until Mid-march. On the other hand, some thought really needs to be given to the message emanating from the G3 central banks. To be sure, the Fed is sending a relatively dovish message, which on the face of it, will be of comfort to financial markets. However, both the Fed and ECB are essentially saying that the world economy is not in a great place, which given all the stimulus that has been provided over the past 10 years is hardly a ringing endorsement, even if the political fraternity in both areas has to shoulder much of the responsibility theretofore. What is rather more alarming is the myopia and the stasis in terms of population. Whether that relates to the ECB talking a fresh round of TLTROs, which will do little to solve the Eurozone's problems, given the obvious political failure to reform its structure and processes, and above all the inability to apply the lessons from the US and Switzerland, namely that bank balance sheet resolution has been key, rather than the 'frim fram' of QE and ZIRP/NIRP. Secondly when Fed's Clarida follows Williams in suggesting that the Fed should, as part of its major policy review (which will conclude in the early part of next year), consider a 'make up' strategy if CPI undershoots target on a sustained basis (i.e. allowing CPI to overshoot until it has 'caught up' with the prior undershoot), or indeed contemplate a BoJ style cap on long-term yields, then the simple question is: 'why, is that because that has worked so well in Japan for the BoJ?'. In other words: are central banks scrabbling around in toolboxes which clearly do not have the equipment to resolve the current array of economic problems/challenges, above all given that any solution more than likely requires politicians to play their part, and take some rather unpalatable but necessary decisions. The more that central banks ignore that famous quote from Einstein: "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them", the more their 'spaghetti principle' / 'definition of madness' strategy of doing the same thing, in the hope that 'something sticks' and / or of a 'different outcome', the more likely that this will be exposed as the Emperor's new clothes, with potentially devastating consequences. In terms of the day's events, there is little to digest statistically, though the doom and gloom fraternity will doubtless jump over any weaker than expected outcome for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (seen edging down to 0.15 from 0.27), and the US Treasury kicks off this week's $311 Bln total of T-Bill and T-Note issuance with 3- & 6-mth bills and 2 & 5-yr coupons.
 
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