Trading the SPX

[Racer]

Tropical Storm Rita "could impact 4 times as many energy rigs and platforms as Katrina and Ivan combined"

Where did you get that quote from?

 

[kevinmcm]

Where did you get that quote from?

DJ news feed, not my own, I only see what Fins provide. The news quoted was passed to me. I saw the numbers on my nes feed but not the bit about 4 * impact

 

[Racer]

--The International Council of Shopping Centers Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell by 2.1% in the week ended Sept. 17 from its level in the week before, on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. This result followed a 0.2% decline in the prior week.

"As a result of continuing high gasoline prices, ripple effects of Hurricane Katrina and increased consumer concern about the future of the economy, weekly retail chain store sales for the week ending Sept. 17 dropped significantly by 2.1%," said Mike Niemira, chief economist at ICSC who compiles the index. "This was the largest weekly dip since Dec. 6, 2003 when it fell 2.5%."

 

[Racer]

DJ news feed, not my own, I only see what Fins provide. The news quoted was passed to me. I saw the numbers on my nes feed but not the bit about 4 * impact

Okay, thank you

 

[kevinmcm]

Gone long today, see a move back to test 1227 area at best. Went long DOW last night. Despite rate rise last night it is becoming clearer for the weeks ahead that the economy is less likley to improve, depends on how you interpret recent data. 1220 held, just and no more last night, was looking for it to hit 1218 when it started sliding, post Labor day holiday level.

If 1218 was taken out then there is not a lot to stop it heading nearer 1200.

So for today, my levels to watch are 1218 and take profits around 1225-27 if it heads up. Review the situation when either level is hit. Ramble over

 

[Bitstream]

Gone long today, see a move back to test 1227 area at best. Went long DOW last night. Despite rate rise last night it is becoming clearer for the weeks ahead that the economy is less likley to improve, depends on how you interpret recent data. 1220 held, just and no more last night, was looking for it to hit 1218 when it started sliding, post Labor day holiday level.

If 1218 was taken out then there is not a lot to stop it heading nearer 1200.

So for today, my levels to watch are 1218 and take profits around 1225-27 if it heads up. Review the situation when either level is hit. Ramble over

Kevin--do you trade the full contract or ES?
I think trading ES is kinda suicidal with 0.25 tick size.

On market direction I don't see the SP diving towards 1200 anytime soon, nevermind breaking it.

 

[kevinmcm]

Kevin--do you trade the full contract or ES?
I think trading ES is kinda suicidal with 0.25 tick size.

On market direction I don't see the SP diving towards 1200 anytime soon, nevermind breaking it.

I trade with a bog standard SB account(s). I dont see it 'diving' towards 1200 either, but if 1218 goes there is good reason for the market to start heading that way over days/weeks. 1218 provided support 4 times before moving up (early Sept), if strong support is taken out it wil be equally difficult to get back through it.

There are two thing I am sure of when it comes to trading
1) I dont have all the answers
2) never say never to anything in the market, anything can and will happen

My own reasons for a move back to 1127 are gaps, 4 all the way back to 1230.5 on 1 min chart. 1227 has been a res/supp area over the last few weeks. I consider short term that this move down is oversold.

 

[kevinmcm]

Well if that was the low for this down leg I have targets of

23.6% = 1219.85

38.2% = 1223

50% = 1225.6

61.8% = 1228.17 <-- this is the area that interests me, get through this and its 1236 and higher

 

[hornblower]

Hi Joules
what do you think the low will be ?
considering your wave system , and you seem to have got it right most of the time
kind regards
H

 

[Racer]

I was expecting either a bounce (wave 4) witha view to a new lowfor the week or a rejection which impies an incomplete count and that we are on our way back upto (or above) 1245

Clearly we would now need to see and implusive move below todays low. Alternatively the pattern may now pick northwood steam. If there is a strong rally into the close then all downside bets are temporarily closed!

not very convincing buying so far today, mr Speedy

 

[RUDEBOY]

Hello Joules. Classic lines? The Beatles.....or.....support to resistance? "You say yes...i say no. You say why? And i say i don't know.......". Nice post. Rudie.

 

[Racer]

S&P

 

[Racer]

NasdaqC

 

[Racer]

and to put all three in one place for easy viewing
Dow

 

[Racer]

Earnings of S&P

 

[hornblower]

S & P hit the 100% fib line short from 1218.5 closed 1213.8
waiting to go long!!

edit 7.40 UK time
2.40 US time 1 hour 20 min trading left to go

 

[hornblower]

crossed 3 buy signals
still under 100% fib line
waiting no position

edit
macd positive , & momemtum
hit the 100%fib line

run up failed ,
pleased i did not trade !!
30 min trading time to go

edit 17 min trading time to go
its shot up , but its weak,so I am not going to trade it, to late in the day

and after all there is always tomorrow

 

[Racer]

27/09 15:00 - Table Of Data On New Home Sales From Commerce

(Aug) (Jul) (Jun)

Sales At Annual Rate 1,237,000 1,373,000 1,304,000
Percent Change -9.9 5.3 0.9
Northeast 78,000 100,000 88,000
Percent Change -22.0 13.6 -3.3
Midwest 194,000 217,000 239,000
Percent Change -10.6 -9.2 -0.8
South 612,000 626,000 627,000
Percent Change -2.2 -0.2 4.7
West 353,000 430,000 350,000
Percent Change -17.9 22.9 -3.3
Median Price 220,300 215,000 221,700
Mean Price 283,400 280,000 274,500
Houses For Sale 479,000 467,000 457,000
Months of Inventory 4.7 4.1 4.3

 

[Racer]

Nasdaq C chart, has bounced off trendline easily in April 03 and also April 04 but the bounces are getting a lot weaker and last touch of trendline it went through quite a lot, now broken through again, this hasn't got tonights close on it which is at 2116.42 down 5.04

Are these charts of optimistic earnings of 2005? Are these charts of optimistic earnings for 2006?

 

[Racer]

US Events: 28th September 2005
8.30 Duarable goods orders P -4.9 F .9%
Oil Stocks P -300k

ALAN GREENSPAN, FED CHAIRMAN: History cautions that extended periods of low concerns about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets.

Define the EXTENT in description of the asset that is risky.

That does not apply at the moment to anything, companies are taking over each other so if they issue profit warning it doesn't matter, people/companies can just borrow more money, those rules do not apply.. it is different this time