Trading Shed's Blog

[Trading Shed]

First Posting.

Hi Journal, I don't know how good I am going to be at posting, but I'll give it a try.
This morning I sold Carpetright for a +10. Annoying as I missed the initial leg of the rally. Nevertheless, can't complain. Bought it on the 16th.
Both Lloyds and Wimpey are looking ripe for closing the long positions. They are 1p and 2p respectively from triggering the limit order. Both orders are placed at +10.
LLoyds could have further to go, but I believe will have a retracement before carrying on. Better sell now. Both bought on the 15th.
With the cash from Carpetwright I have bought Barclays this morning. MACD signals to buy and so do a host of other indicators. Looking for a +30 within a week. Expecially if FTSE behaves as it should.
Still holding Persimmon (bought on 17th). Not doing very much, but on the back on the recent results it ought to move up a notch. MACD also says buy.
BAE has been a dog for the last few days. Bought on the 15th, is currently -3. I will leave it to see if it goes through stop loss. It may just change direction.
Also this morning bought United Business Media.
Still long on 7 FTSE.

 

[Trading Shed]

Posting 2

Good morning Diary,
Sold Wimpey and LLoyds yesterday, both for a +10.
Also sold BAE for a -6, it was giving me headakes!
Very good day on FTSE yesterday, opened higher this morning but heading south as we speak.
I will stay long waiting for Santa to come along!

Still holding Persimmon, Barclays & UBM. About to sell Persimmon for a +20.
Barclays & UBM still pretty much where they were.
Looking at how CAC40 & Dax behave with relation to Dow J, new territory for me.

 

[Trading Shed]

Uncertain times

Very uncertain times this morning, diary.
Raised my FTSE stop loss to 4400, whatever happens I will cash in a +50 gain
Also raised my Persimmon SL to +10. Still aiming at +20, but ....who knows.

 

[Trading Shed]

End of week

Good evening diary,
Closed all positions before end of day, FTSE @ 4410 for a +64, Persimmon eventually moved and closed @ +20. Closed Barclays for a modest +5 and UBM for -3.
Pitty as Persimmon kept going up and so did Lloyds after I sold, but, hey, what the h.. A good solid week.
I thought about keeping some positions open over the weekend, especially FTSE and Barclays, but I have decided against it, not sure on something. I will start fresh on Monday.
Is good fun to keep a diary, and the thought that other people might read it, gives me an extra incentive to write.

For the few of you that will end up perusing, I trade CFD's with Deal4free part time while running a business at the same time (!!).
I mainly trade FTSE & Stocks with timescale between intraday and week long trades. Do not normally keep positions open over week end.
Have been trading for around 3 years, the last 2 CFD's Only.
Back on Monday.

 

[Trading Shed]

Xmas week

Good morning Diary,
Not much happening this morning.
Do not have any ideas for opening positions, so I have done a bit of FTSE scalping, as I am on the PC anyway.
FTSE is obviously trading on very low volume and waiting for US to open.
I have gained +6 earlier on, only to give it all back!!

I am using MACD and 1 minute chart. I think that if nothing happens when US opens, I won't be doing anything else until Santa's gone.
I am still bullish, unless US will be overreacting to the terrorism threat announcements.

 

[Trading Shed]

23rd

Good evening diary,
I thought I would not be trading today, as I was busy with other things, but the DOW closing so high last night triggered my immagination.
There does not seem to be an end.

This morning FTSE was due to open higher, and it duly did. My forecast was of it moving higher early am, only to head south later on on fears of profit taking on the DOW on opening.
I was, of course, wrong, and the opposite happened.

Fears of a lower Dow were present from just after opening, and FTSE managed to move higher only after the DOW opened.
I entered a long position @ 4429 early and closed it in D4F after hours trading @ 4442 for a +13.

Funny thought:
I was away from the screen for a couple of hours, and before doing so I placed a stop loss. At the same time I had the thought of placing a limit sell order @ 4500 (as that has been my target for Xmas).
I thought better of it, thinking it would have been too an ambitious target for only a few hours trading left. When I went back I noticed that the market had peaked @ 4520 or thereabouts for a few minutes earlier on.

Wonder if D4F would have filled the order, had I placed it?
Happy Xmas

 

[Trading Shed]

1st of 2004

I never said I would be good at keeping the diary.....

I suppose I should start with a loss on Christmas Eve. With the market open only for a few hours, I have managed a -10 on FTSE in the short time I was trading. Long position closed through a too tight stop loss. Lesson learned.

After such a climb, surely we should have some sort of retracement. I have drawn a resistance line which indicates such a retracement should happen at around 4510/20. I entered a short position @ 4507 on Friday 2nd January, which is still open (Stop loss @ 4530!).

As I was going to be away Mon/Tue, I did not want to miss the fall. I was a bit nervous as everyone seemed to be rather bullish.
In the two following days FTSE closed above 4500, leaving me with the feeling that a consolidation above 4500 would prevent selling-en-masse.
Especially worrying on Tuesday, when after an initial fall, the market rushed back to close above 4500. This morning I thought about closing the position at around breakeven and sit on the fence for a while, but MACD is confirming a fall is due, and would it not be nice if it was all the way to 4400?

As we speak, it looks like a closing below 4500 (well below, in fact) is in the cards.
I will keep my short and lower my stop loss.

 

[Trading Shed]

7th Jan

Market closed @4473, decided to keep the short and lowered my stop loss to 4505. However, DJ has come back with a vengeance and D4F is quoting FTSE @ 4480ish in after hours trading. Is looking like it could be a bull run tomorrow. Still convinced that it will get lower.

 

[Trading Shed]

7th January (2)

I have just downloaded sharescope data and noticed that the market closed just above my 1st Fibonacci retracement (plotted @ 4470.5).

As they say that, after a big price move markets like to retrace around 50%, I will keep an eye out for 4421, which is where my 50% fib line lies.
Top resistence line is still unbroken and MACD seems confident in the continuation downwards.

 

[Trading Shed]

9th Jan

Not that easy is it? with DJ keeping the momentum upwards, the idea that FTSE should retrace seems absurd!

I have been stopped out @ 4505 yesterday, at breakeven. I should have closed the position earlier and I would have made a profit - lesson -

Still convinced on a move downwards, I went short @ 4501 and closed this morning @ 4485 for a +16.
Big 30pts fall this morning, which seems to have rested @ 4470ish, again my fib support line.

I have no positions open, and I am tempted by a small long.

 

[Trading Shed]

9th Jan (2)

Did go long in the end. @ 4473.
Market moved higher and I raised Stop Loss to entry point, with a 20pts target. I got out even...again!
I have no positions now, and FTSE is going in the direction that I had thought it would in the first place!!
South

My next fib support is @ 4444, it looks like today the market has bounced off just there!
I will not open another position today, wait till tomorrow.

 

[Trading Shed]

16th January

Did not trade since last posting, but have been keeping an eye on things

Three stocks caught my eye, Boots, Diageo and Allied Domecq.

Yesterday Boots seemed to have bounced off its support level @ around 640. A very valid support too, as seen on a long term chart. The same level acted as a resistence several times in 2001. Plus with the good news this morning.....
However when I logged on it had already gone without me.

Both Diageo & Domecq have a very good MACD, they are both at my support level, and they both bounced off a fib retracement line yesterday.
I entered a long position in both with a target of 30pts each.

FTSE bounced off near enough my 50% fib line on wednesday and after some uncertainty yesterday, I have decided on a long this morning.

 

[Trading Shed]

17th January

Spent some time on Sharescope this morning, looking for some good opportunities for next week.
I found 6 interesting charts and I thought I would record my findings here even though I might not trade them. It's all good fun.

NEXT - MACD indicates a fall, so does my Stochastic and momentum is definitely changing direction. If it's true that gaps must be closed by the market, we could revisit the 1140 range. Wouldn't that be good! Short.

RIO TINTO - Although everyone seems to be bearish on mining, the 1440ish level at which we are now has been a good resistance level last year and a good support more recently. Also is the 4th touch on the trendline which I have drawn from July 03. MACD signals a possible change upwards. Also near the 60 VMA which provided support on two other occasions. Long.

BAE - Although it has not managed a close above 173 on Friday, maybe the time is now right for a long an the stock. If the momentum keeps we could go all the way to 200. With a limited downside as well as 160 seems to be a pretty solid support. Long.

INTERCONTINENTAL - Is finding it difficult to close above 580, which is also where my top resistence line is drawn. All indicators signal a likely fall (also confirmed by IC..should be reassuring).
At least looking at a 20/30 point South to 50% Fib line. Maybe more. Short.

HSBC - Another one lying on some sort of support. Trend line a bit messy as it seems to be a bit rangebound. Nevertheless, with a likely resistence no sooner than 900ish, there could be 30pts in there. Long.

SHELL - It puzzles me. I want to convince myself that all the selling action is overdone. IC writers are convinced that it is. I have drawn a south pointing trendline under the last three lows and it would point at a likely bottom of 345/350. However that would mean Iraq war levels. MACD and Stochastic indicate a possible change in fortunes and the same could be true as per the Next gap. Long.

I will write what I will actually trade next week.

 

[Trading Shed]

19th January

Just a quick entry.
I closed my long on FTSE this morning @ 4512 for a +40 as it was approaching previous highs.
Will observe behaviour from here.

I opened some of the positions mentioned yesterday:
Long: HSBC, RIO TINTO, SHELL
Short: NEXT, INTERCONTINENTAL

Not very confident in BAE after yesterday news, so I left it alone.

Both my DIAGEO and ALLIED DOMECQ positions are moving in the right direction, so I raised their stop losses a bit.

 

[Trading Shed]

22nd January - nearly end of week

Not a very successful week, so far!
Today I have been stopped out from my long in RIO TINTO for a -30, although I have recovered 7pts with a quick short double the size. (Does that make it -16?). :whistling
No doubts it will start the climb now that I am out of the picture!

ALso stopped out from a short in NEXT for a whopping -37 (no recovery operations here
Still convinced that it's a good short and will keep a close eye. Did not think it would reach such highs. Probably due to brokers upgrades today.

So far, SHELL and HSBC are pretty much at entry point, tempted to increase my long position in SHELL.

DIAGEO & A. DOMECQ are my largest positions and are showing a profit. I have raised both stop losses to their respective entry points. Perhaps I should take profits, but I reason that if they managed to move higher in a lackustre FTSE session, they won't do badly tomorrow. still a tad away from my target.

Also INTERCONTINENTAL is going in the right direction and stop loss has been raised to entry point, although it may be time to cash in as it is reaching the target.

Tempted by a long position in FTSE tomorrow, as it is now sitting on my 50% Fib line and looks ready for a pounce above 4500 again.

 

[Trading Shed]

Friday - quick

With FTSE below 4460, I opened a small long.
Raised stop losses on INTERCONTINENTAL, DIAGEO, A. DOMECQ to lock in 10pts profit each.
SHELL & HSBC still in the duldrums.
No decent movement.

 

[Trading Shed]

Friday 23rd - End of week

...I had written a nice long entry, and then lost as I was trying to post it!!
Start again.
I have closed nearly all my positions with the exeption of:
SHELL
DIAGEO - short!
Actually a mistake!! Closed the position and left a stop in place a minute too long and it was triggered.
(hope has happened to someone else!)
FTSE - It was so low on after hours trading that I opened a long.

I thought I would record below my P&L in pts for the week (since last Friday)

Diageo + 22pts
Allied Domecq + 10pts
FTSE + 8pts
RioTinto + 7pts
Intercont. + 20pts
FTSE + 40pts
HSBC - 8pts
NEXT - 37pts
RioTinto - 30pts
-------------------------------------
Total: + 32pts

Although I am not really pleased with the week as far as choices of trades, it was still a financially positive result. Especially as the winning trades were bigger positions than the losing ones. (luckly maybe?)

I should have cut my losses on NEXT and RIO TINTO earlier than I did, as by looking purely at the points, I seem to have let the losers run more than the winners!!!!

The 8 points in the FTSE is a quick (and large!) long today . (compare that with over a week of Allied Domecq).
I practiced some 'averaging down' on that one.(throwing good money after bad....?)
It has been successful today, but do not think I will try it again in a hurry.
Although I felt pretty confident in a change of direction, the position kept getting larger....ending up not much smaller then the 40pts earlier in the week!
..food for thoughts.

 

[Trading Shed]

Monday 26th

I have just closed my FTSE long in CMC after hours market.
I started off this morning by covering the short in Diageo triggered by mistake on Friday (ouch!) for a -6.5pts.
As I already had two longs open (FTSE & SHELL) from Friday, I did not open anything else.

FTSE has been very disappointing all day by been bound in a tight range. I kept a close eye on it on and off all day and ,although disappointed by the lack of direction, I could not help but getting excited seeing it hovering around the critical 4430/40ish mark all day (without falling through it). At those levels, my indicators were signalling only one possible direction. Although at one point it did fall slightly below the critical 4431!

I must admit daytrading is not my usual style, I favour longer position keeping.
Anyway, I did what I said I would NOT do last week and kept adding to the long position!!
As I was not opening any other position, I also added to my long in SHELL.
With a FTSE position this size, I was looking to close it intraday, rather than keeping it overnight.
So I did, for a +30, which is a very good start of the week indeed!
I am still relatively inexperienced (a newby!) and when this happened in the past, I have always subsequently fallen victim of overtrading and over-confidence. More often than not ended up giving a big chunk back to the market!!
As I have reached my weekly ££ target early, I have decided that I will just keep my SHELL position and will keep an eye on FTSE for the occasional dip.

 

[Trading Shed]

Tuesday 27th

Overtrading is looming
I could not ignore the DJ close last night and I was on the screen this morning!
Placed a FTSE long @ 4462 and just closed it for a +10 @ 4472.
I will leave the screen for the rest of the day :innocent:

 

[Trading Shed]

Wednesday 28th January

I was going to be away all day today so I knew I would not be able to trade.
Checked FTSE last night in after hours and I saw it going down towards the 4430. Hanged on a few minutes only to see it bouncing off from 4431.
Decided on a long @ 4442 to leave overninght. Set initial stop just below 4430.
As the DJ was freefalling, FTSE did not move below 4429.
Difficult choice now, considering I would be away all day today.
My indicators are signalling a higher close for tomorrow, but there is always the possibillity of a stop been triggered before that happens.

Decided to lower the stop, place a limit sell order and add to the position (something I said would not do) based on the strong support and signals from indicators.
Also decided on an overnight long on DJ.
First time I trade it and I am aware of the higher volatility factor, so kept the position to the minimum allowed by CMC (1 Contract
The result on my return today was a FTSE sale @ limit order for +20.
My 1 DJ still open
Noticed also with pleasure that my SHELL seems to be giving signs of life. Just nudged up a few points in the right direction.
It seems to have been there forever!