Trading NASDAQ stocks with Jerry Olson & Ian Hodgson

[smbtnt]

Grey1,

Did your vwap engine come up with a buy signal on MRVL at close of play yesterday?

 

[Danger Field]

Gap Trade ( May 18th - May 19th )

yesterday just before the market close I took two over night position . 1000 LONG APPL @ 63.24 LONG RMBS @ 28.11.

I took the trades based on the following technical reasons.

Pro

1) market was hammered for three days and a technical bounce was more likely
2) Both stocks were very Oversold on daily as well as intra day ( two time frames confirmation ) with LOW MACCI.


Cons

1) I had no buy signal from the VWAP engine
2 ) MRVL could have come up with poor result after hours and taken RMBS down in sympathy


Correct postion size for RMBS based on yesterday's volatility would have been 1000 shares and 890 for APPL Near enough for me to take 1000 of each .

My strategy for these two stocks will be as follow:--

if both stocks gap up i will close on the second bar ( 1 min ) , if stocks gap down i will close after a technical bounce up on the second bar. I will stick to my strategy and will post P/L of the trades after market opens ..

For a trader that has impressed me with his technical ability and precision, this was a dumb move for you to make. Overnight? No entry signals? "Technical bounce more likely"? 890 is near enough to 1000? That is a 12% skew before you even get going. This is worse than sloppy and you know it.

Grey, you don't make up for quiet boring days with impulsive trades, we leave that to the newbies.

 

[Grey1]

For a trader that has impressed me with his technical ability and precision, this was a dumb move for you to make. Overnight? No entry signals? "Technical bounce more likely"? 890 is near enough to 1000? That is a 12% skew before you even get going. This is worse than sloppy and you know it.

Grey, you don't make up for quiet boring days with impulsive trades, we leave that to the newbies.

Danger

heheh, there are many ways to skin the cat and gap trading is one of them . That was not a dumb move in fact was an awesome move which resulted in a good profit. I have done that many many times in the past and have posted the WIN result too . Not all my trades are intra day ...

Impulsive trades ? ROFL you having me on ?? Nah

Newbiesssssssssssss LOL WOHOOOOOO if a newbie can make such a consistant return on his capital I wonder how much a a pro like you be making in a year.

ROFL


pstttttt :-- All my trades be it ,,, over night, intra day , swing of up to 3 weeks are correctly sized not to have excessive pressure on my capital . It is all about RISK MANAGMENT . I be posting my other gap trades as we go along .

Grey1 will be meeting another member of this BB from sweden ( in my house ) on Tuesday which will get to learn how to gap trade for profit .. ( all free by the way heheh ). By the way i a glad i have impressed you but I am not really here to impress people.

Amin

 

[Grey1]

Grey1,

Did your vwap engine come up with a buy signal on MRVL at close of play yesterday?

I cannot remember I am afraid . I would not touch those stocks over night which are due for their earning as TA does not work on SPIKES. They are purley driven my Euphoria or capitulation.

Sorry i cannot be of any help

Grey1

 

[Jerry Olson]

Technical Bounce On The Way

Just a quick note before my class starts at 2 pm es. today.

Most indexs hammered Friday and i think we'll rally up and towards the 50% fibonacci retrace off the April highs and the May lows.

the new lines in the sand are the Friday lows folks... so set alerts


they may be and probably will be re tested soon.

look for sellers first the the 20 ema's on the daily candle charts on the indexs first. The let's see if they sell that if we even get there.

we are the most oversold since Sept 2001. everything i am looking at is screaming get long...

McClellan osc. CBOE put call ratios, vix index blah blah blah..

good luck all...

 

[samtron]

Gap Trade ( May 18th - May 19th )

yesterday just before the market close I took two over night position . 1000 LONG APPL @ 63.24 LONG RMBS @ 28.11.

I took the trades based on the following technical reasons.

Pro

1) market was hammered for three days and a technical bounce was more likely
2) Both stocks were very Oversold on daily as well as intra day ( two time frames confirmation ) with LOW MACCI.


Cons

1) I had no buy signal from the VWAP engine
2 ) MRVL could have come up with poor result after hours and taken RMBS down in sympathy


Correct postion size for RMBS based on yesterday's volatility would have been 1000 shares and 890 for APPL Near enough for me to take 1000 of each .

My strategy for these two stocks will be as follow:--

if both stocks gap up i will close on the second bar ( 1 min ) , if stocks gap down i will close after a technical bounce up on the second bar. I will stick to my strategy and will post P/L of the trades after market opens ..

Grey1
I applaud you for having the confidence (and experience) to post live trades, something very few "experts" are willing to do.
Thanks for sharing your reasons for taking the trades.

 

[Grey1]

Grey1
I applaud you for having the confidence (and experience) to post live trades, something very few "experts" are willing to do.
Thanks for sharing your reasons for taking the trades.

Samtron My man ,

Posting the WIN and LOSE directly from Broker's screen is final evidence and proof of a trader's performance. I remember once I challenged this guy who was claiming he has been profitable for last past 5 years and from his postings i realized the guy is just a button pusher and has tiny understanding of technical and statistical analysis of the financial market <I told him i would give $ 5000 to charity of your choice if you come to a chat room of my choice and post your trades for two weeks to see if you can come on top. Oh well, The guy just disappeared. I am thinking of offering the same to some one else soon ..

A trader is not a pro and profitable if he posts 1000's on this BB and not even once talks about his position sizing strategy before the trade as well as during the trade. You simply cannot ignore this issue. Stock market is a semi efficient system which means LONG TERM EDGE MUST BE EXPLOITED USING MONEY AND RISK MANAGMENT TO TURN A POTENTIAL SHORT TERM GAMBLE INTO A LONG TERM SUCCESS FULL BUSINSS. ( if you just knew how important this sentence was )

I currently use my second broker for swing and hedging purposes as a result often open a swing trade of around three weeks on a stock that is hardly mentioned on any BB's but using correct position and risk management i could benefit from this process even if a position on my intra day goes well against me due to market spike . ( CHH , FS, entertainment sector) against Semi intra day . This is multi time frame hedging which we used in the bank .

My over all account of combined intra and swing is doing really well and I am pleased to say that is all due to understanding that there is more in this game than just couple of chart pattern set ups. I don’t know if any of you guys work for a credible institution or a bank because all we are concerned there is HOW TO MANAGE RISK . WHAT ARE THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO AS MOST ANALYSTS USE FUNDAMENTAL ( CAPTM capital assets modeling for Long term portfolio) and RISK is the name of the game . After the DOT COM bubble the need for risk modeling has increased to a degree that no stock is traded unless all the risk are calculated ,

Any way it is Sunday and weather is nothing like Mediterranean which keeps us at home . On the positive side it gives us to contribute some thing to this BB.

By the way ., soon i be taking two experienced traders a month to coach them for free on the condition that the trader would donate £200 to a charity of his choice ( preferably . http://www.christianaid.org.uk/inter/copy.htm ) If you are interested please Pm

*Defamatory remarks removed by JumpOff.

Grey1

 

[JumpOff]

Samtron My man ,

Posting the WIN and LOSE directly from Broker's screen is final evidence and proof of a trader's performance.

Grey1

Grey1, the reason people like to see traders call their trades live, either here or in a chat room, is that is a handy way to put an time stamp on the post. Although the content could be edited after the fact, but those who subscribe to the thread would see it and cry 'foul!' Anyone with a graphics program can doctor up a printscreen of the broker's win/lose statement. (not suggesting that anyone here has done that, just acknowledging that it would be child's play for most computer users.) I think that is why some traders use a service like http://www.collective2.com/ which alows them to evaluate the ratios of traders as judged by an independant party.

Your dedication to position sizing strategy is duly noted. Feel free to link to a thread where you discuss this in detail, or please start one if you need to.

Your objection to trading 'hot stocks' is also noted. Feel free to start a thread discussing why and how to trade stocks that are not 'hot.'

JO

 

[Grey1]

Grey1, the reason people like to see traders call their trades live, either here or in a chat room, is that is a handy way to put an time stamp on the post. Although the content could be edited after the fact, but those who subscribe to the thread would see it and cry 'foul!' Anyone with a graphics program can doctor up a printscreen of the broker's win/lose statement. (not suggesting that anyone here has done that, just acknowledging that it would be child's play for most computer users.) I think that is why some traders use a service like http://www.collective2.com/ which alows them to evaluate the ratios of traders as judged by an independant party.

Your dedication to position sizing strategy is duly noted. Feel free to link to a thread where you discuss this in detail, or please start one if you need to.

Your objection to trading 'hot stocks' is also noted. Feel free to start a thread discussing why and how to trade stocks that are not 'hot.'

JO

jump,

Most of my strategy is posted on this BB including the pos sizing / risk managment and VWAP engine.

As far as doctoring up of a broker's screen is concern . I donot reply to this issue because it is irrelavant . 100 % irrelevant. Perhaps it can be done by some great painter and decorater . Certainly not by me. LOL . ( hey IAN perhaps you was doctoing up my screen when you was here trading on my account lol ) .

I will be having the pleasure of meeting up with Trader333 and Blue chip Trader soon to trade the market live using my account and a full day of chit chat on various aspects of day trading specially dynamic risk managment using postion sizing .


Grey1

 

[TheBramble]

I will be having the pleasure of meeting up with Trader333 and Blue chip Trader soon to trade the market live using my account and a full day of chit chat on various aspects of day trading specially dynamic risk managment using postion sizing .

Now that's something I would jump on a plane for. Thanks for the invite guys. NAAARRTTTT!!!!

Hope you all have a good day. In fact, I just know you will. But please don't spend the next 6 months talking about it on the boards....

 

[JohnHL]

LOL Hi Timsk

I love to trade, and have been doing it a long time. In fact i'll be 65 come this April 23rd....

Oh! Goodbye to another excuse I was using for my poor trading performance - my birth sign. I was 66 on April 23.

 

[Jerry Olson]

Grey1, the reason people like to see traders call their trades live, either here or in a chat room, is that is a handy way to put an time stamp on the post. Although the content could be edited after the fact, but those who subscribe to the thread would see it and cry 'foul!' Anyone with a graphics program can doctor up a printscreen of the broker's win/lose statement. (not suggesting that anyone here has done that, just acknowledging that it would be child's play for most computer users.) I think that is why some traders use a service like http://www.collective2.com/ which alows them to evaluate the ratios of traders as judged by an independant party.

Your dedication to position sizing strategy is duly noted. Feel free to link to a thread where you discuss this in detail, or please start one if you need to.

Your objection to trading 'hot stocks' is also noted. Feel free to start a thread discussing why and how to trade stocks that are not 'hot.'

JO

Morning Jump Off

I doubt very much if Grey 1 is doctoring anything. He'
s trading live in my room posting entries and exits with timestamps imbedded in the text window.

The problem as i see it no one post real time live trades on most any boards. It's very difficult to do that during the day since we are al;l trading so fast in scalp mode.

I think Grey 1's integrity speaks for itself.

have a nice day

 

[Jerry Olson]

Oh! Goodbye to another excuse I was using for my poor trading performance - my birth sign. I was 66 on April 23.

i have no clue what you mean, just say what you want to say and stop pussyfooting around it John

 

[Jerry Olson]

Just A Thought

I would prefer traders to post potential money making ideas here rather than disparaging thoughts & remarks about others.

It does us no good to have to read thru junk posts that have little meaning and add zero to our pocket books.

Instead folks, help each other like Grey 1 has and let's work together to try and make a buck.

Ankle biters are everywhere all over these boards. They snipe at traders that show their faces and make suggestions for trades.

Instead let them stick their comments where the sun don;t shine and give us solid charts and trades right here.

I truly could care less about an attacks on me, i have a very thick skin, but let's not attack others
trying to help us all.

now let's see if we can buy this early slam today...

good luck to you all...

 

[Jerry Olson]

Some Thoughts As We Plunge This Am

First of all we are getting a flight to quality bond market rally which is a positive for the markets.

Next June Crude Futures could break below 67.50 today which is a sell signal on P&F with downside targets of 65.00 to about 62.00 very bullish for the markets.

Gold futures are plunging as are world commodity markets. I wrote about the entire metals complex was an accident waiting to happen weeks ago.

Hedge funds got caught with their pants down and are unloading everything they were long and strong on.

let the dust settle as the markets continue to lower expectations of corporate profits in the 2nd half of this year.

The FED is still in the game based on Fed Funds Futures. We may or may not get 1 more hike at the June 29th meeting.

hang tough and stay loose...

 

[Grey1]

Grey1 hopes people who meet me and learn also contribute to this BB and if they thought my teaching was non sense and not long term profitable to say so . Grey1 also would love people to post their P/L directly from their broker's screen after using my concept of trading . Grey 1 would defend any aspect of his trading decision in technical as well as statistical manner with live trades in my house for those who meet me eventually .

I will be outlining again the basic approach to risk management as soon as i get few minutes free time .

Just before i go and get ready for trading .. You must have a strategy with an edge to be a long term winner, No amount of money management or risk management will help you if you donot have the edge ( well we all knew that any way )

However , two traders with the same strategy can have totally 100 % different outcome . One could be bankrupting himself time and time again and other can have a healthy / profitable and solid business for years and years to come .

Grey1

 

[JohnHL]

i have no clue what you mean, just say what you want to say and stop pussyfooting around it John

I was only trying to make a joke from the fact that we seem to share the same birthdate.

Sorry i wasted your valuable time.

 

[garethb]

After the market opened I pair traded two semi conductor's BRCM againt MRVL as I was not getting any directional signal due to market consolidation . As I said before I am not good at gauging the market direction hence I hedged my postions. Things was going really well until Tradestation stopped all to gether and left me with a I/O error and a big hole in the data for the radar. SO i had to close the trades with $739.28 win minus costs.

I feel traders should learn how to hedge positions and trade professionally if the marke is indecisive like to day .

There are many ways of doing that and a search through Internet can reveal few techniques which is a must for all level of expertise.

I am posting the corrupted chart from TS and hence no more trading for me to day as VWAP engine will fire wrong signals due to the hole in the data. I have no doubt that i would lose if i trade with out my ENGINE.

Grey 1,

Sorry to drag you back to last thursday. I was trying to understand your pair trade BRCM/MRVL that day. If you can remember it, was this a VWAP bands based pair trade? I have tried to pull up charts for the day with my version of your MPD bands from the old technical trader thread. They both look like possible longs at various points in the day but I can't see what triggered you into a pair trade. Which was the short?

I've attached a screen shot of the vwap bands I see for the day. Thanks in advance for any time you spend on this - just trying to understand the reasoning

Best Regards

Gareth

 

[timsk]

Your dedication to position sizing strategy is duly noted. Feel free to link to a thread where you discuss this in detail, or please start one if you need to.
JO

Grey 1,
As JO suggests, a new thread in which to outline your risk management strategies would be a good idea, IMO. It might encourage others to contribute their ideas and questions, without diverting this thread on such a big tangent.
Just a thought.
Tim.

 

[Grey1]

Gareth my man let me finish the day and i come back to explain the trade if i can .

Mean while I am up already $ 611 trading APPL against JOYG. they both opened in negative but one had a lower relative strength compare to the other one so if the market went against me AAPL would have bailed me out and if market spiked down JOYG would have done the trick . They both had a short signal on the VWAP engine with JOY G selling pressure much higher having higher time frame support . I have not discussed this technique in the past but will do in future. This techniques is often used in neural network application based strategies .