Trading Economics

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
What timeframes do you trade? If you look at the dailies and above for forex, commodities and indices then it seems clear that it is one market, instruments either have positive or negative correlations but nearly all share the same pivots.

I am indifferent to time frames. This might seem like a foreign concept however when a trade is defined off fundamentals then charts become irrelevant. For longer term trades i target % change in price and use average daily range when trading economic data point deviations which i get from the web (example - http://www.forextips.com/daily-trading-ranges/)
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
data points for the day

I am not expecting much from UK autumn statement as there isn't much room to maneuver policy. Later in the day is USA durable goods and unemployment claims. I will be looking to sell $ if there is a significant deviation to the downside. The $ has appreciated as forecast but it needs to offer better prices so i expect a deviation to offer a good sell opportunity. Also on watch is crude inventories, any significant reduction in barrels held is positive for trading CAD and any significant increase will be negative.
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
Trade on oil after the inventory data showed a deviation in inventories. Expected 0.3m increase and the data was a 1.3 decrease. Pair traded is cadjpy which didn't have much room given it's daily range is approximately 80 pips. Currently up 25 pips with a target of 35 pips.
 
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forker

Senior member
2,688 500
Last week was a quiet week with USA holiday and little data market moving data coming out. This week will start slow and then get busy with a good amount of opportunity.

If the USA data comes out as expected or better then it will add strength to the rate hike in December and we should see some buying. Be mindful of a rate hike being priced in already so don't expect a lot of momentum in a rally.

Today we have ECB president statement. The euro has been under pressure with dollar strength as well as a buildup of data points that's come out worse than expected for the major economies. Any dovish remarks will be a sell opportunity.

Tuesday I am looking for USA data points to support a rate hike. I will only take a sell on GDP or consumer confidence if there is a deviation to the downside.

Wednesday is OPEC meetings. I will be tuning in all week for news to trade and any news around agreements in cutting of production can give us a CAD trade. I will also be looking at EU CPI data where a deviation to the downside being an opportunity to trade. This data also feeds into my long term view of EU.

Thursday I will be looking at China first where we have the potential to see risk being taken off the table and more safe haven flows. If the PMI data breaks the 50 handle then be aware of safe haven flows which can be a trading opportunity although you need to be mindful that all eyes will be looking at employment data on Friday. I am also on the lookout for USA ISM PMI in context to there being support for a rate hike. A good number here could see some $ buying although it is too close to the employment data so at most it could be a small session level trade if it deviates to the upside. A bad number here will give opportunity to take a session sell.

Friday is the big one with USA employment data coming out. If the number is worse than expected then there will be very good session sell opportunity. I will be looking at earnings to give evidence of inflationary pressure which will further support a hike. At this time i am keen to get back long the $ but not at these levels. My preference is to look for a deviation in the data to give a sell opportunity to get a better price for multi session longs. I am reluctant on taking a medium term position in the dollar at this time until Trump's policies feed into play.
 
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forker

Senior member
2,688 500
for those of you interested i have found a way to create dashboards of economic indicators. Go to http://ieconomics.com and create an account (its totally free)

Click on indicators and then clear all the ones visible and start adding your indicators. When you are happy you can click on the share button at the bottom of the page and this will give you a uri. You can then simply save that in a favourites folder

here is an example of Europe inflation (top 5 economies [excluding uk] and a Euro Area overview

http://ieconomics.com/i/4JaitVHzz1611/2
 

gerryg

Established member
900 7
for those of you interested i have found a way to create dashboards of economic indicators. Go to http://ieconomics.com and create an account (its totally free)

Click on indicators and then clear all the ones visible and start adding your indicators. When you are happy you can click on the share button at the bottom of the page and this will give you a uri. You can then simply save that in a favourites folder

here is an example of Europe inflation (top 5 economies [excluding uk] and a Euro Area overview

http://ieconomics.com/i/4JaitVHzz1611/2

Website doesn't work. Btw good fundamental overview will be looking for the Friday payrolls also its hard to imagine additional spur to US Dollar as climbing over historical peaks is not likely to be supported by wary investors. :)
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
Website doesn't work. Btw good fundamental overview will be looking for the Friday payrolls also its hard to imagine additional spur to US Dollar as climbing over historical peaks is not likely to be supported by wary investors. :)

It's working fine for me so might be your browser.

I find charts add interference in a bad way and therefore I don't subscribe to them. For price to go higher sustainably we need to see the economy maintain the level of employment and inflationary factors continue to increase. The Trump effect is likely to have an impact on the pace of recovery and Jan is around the corner so I am going to prefer short term $ trades until we get more clarity.
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
Trade for the day shorting eurusd off the back of negative Draghi comments and good adp numbers.

snips of comments:

"The European Central Bank's ultra-loose monetary policy is creating room for governments to carry out economic reforms but is no substitute for them"
"but we alone cannot eliminate"
"Monetary policy is providing support and space for governments to carry out necessary structural reforms"

Trade entry 1.0642 with a target of 1.0600

Awaiting any deviation on oil inventories. Opec meeting is mixed at the moment with nothing worth a trade.
 
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Signalcalc

Veteren member
4,670 1,030
Do you have a plan for the Italian election on Sunday?
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
For those of you wondering how I track news real-time here is what I am focused on today. 2 separate news feeds in Eikon along with real-time economic releases. $99 a month http://www.metastock.ca/data/xenith.aspx is the best money you will invest in trading FX. Any special events i just create a dedicated news feed that gives me live commentary (the red lines) as well as recently written news articles
 

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counter_violent

Legendary member
11,284 3,005
Trade for the day shorting eurusd off the back of negative Draghi comments and good adp numbers.

snips of comments:

"The European Central Bank's ultra-loose monetary policy is creating room for governments to carry out economic reforms but is no substitute for them"
"but we alone cannot eliminate"
"Monetary policy is providing support and space for governments to carry out necessary structural reforms"

Trade entry 1.0642 with a target of 1.0600

Awaiting any deviation on oil inventories. Opec meeting is mixed at the moment with nothing worth a trade.

He's given up, there is no plan.

I can see the Euro falling off a cliff sometime soon.
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
He's given up, there is no plan.

I can see the Euro falling off a cliff sometime soon.
There has been some interesting developments in the top 5 economies although it isn't nearly enough to lift the currency. We will need a catalyst if the cliff fall is to happen and the environment can easily present it.
 

forker

Senior member
2,688 500
Unfortunately I missed the oil trade (I had to step away). Opec agreed cuts was a clear cad long signal with cadjpy giving 40 pips
 
 
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