Trading after work 7pm-12am GMT

Hi John999

Your plan to trade intra-day is sound, and even more so, given that you plan to become familiar with the workings of one pair at a time.

In my view, you need to look at liquidity, spread and volatility as opposed to volatility alone. A highly volatile currency pair can gap clear past your entry/exit without giving you a fill, but at the same time, deliver you a nasty loss. To avoid this situation, you need high liquidity - see the 3 pairs below.

In order to compromise between the three of these pillars, you could focus on one of these:

USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD

The GBPUSD would be my recommendation for you, because it is your home currency pair, and has nice Daily Range, as well as being highly liquid, with low spread. It's called "cable" because of the Atlantic Telecommunications Cable linking USA with GB. When this pair moves, it's "look out" because the moves can be fast and spectacular.

Many forums have threads dedicated to this pair, and discuss the idiosyncracies of it.

The EURUSD would be my second pick. It is more reliable in trending, but equally prone to sentimental reversals lately - succumbing to the whims of the market when the Fundamantals seemingly support trending in the opposite direction. In this sense, trading the EURUSD is better suited to strictly Technical Analysis methodology right now - forget the Fundamentals. The pair is the most liquid, but has a lesser daily range (ATR) normally than cable.

USDJPY also has a nice daily range, but I am sure whichever pair you choose, you will discover things that will help you with an edge, and lead to higher probability of success.

Now, if I may throw 2p of advice into the ring ...

When starting out trading, try to trade the longer Time Frame charts, such as the daily or weekly. I realise that because your working hours prohibit your participation in the daily chart trades, you are aiming for intra-day trading.

Thats' OK - but at least look at the Daily/Weekly background trends before considering placing your trades. If I were in your place, I would be looking at the 4H charts to trade from. These take longer to develop, and have far less "noise" than the scalping time-frames. I have had 5 years trading experience, and still can not scalp successfully - the action is too hard and fast at times, and even when I seem to be doing well, a series of stopped out trades will undo all my good work!!

Not for me I'm afraid.

Regarding a demo trading account: I think MT4 is probably the best for learner-drivers!

I have used MT4 from IBFX - FXPro - ODLSecurities - and North Finance. It really matters little - you don't have to give accurate details except for your email address, and gmail is accepted. I think my phone number was a digit short of the truth too. I still use MT4, and place my live trades with another online broker.

Most of the platforms say they are for 30 days, but if you are actively using them, they do not expire. If they do expire on you, you just click on "File" then "Open an Account" and simply reopen a new one on the same platform. You get to keep the same indicators and templates, because these are created and stored on your own computer files in "Programmes".

A good feature with MT4 is the ability to trade 1/10th lots (minis) as well as micro's (1/100th of a lot. Each pip in a mini a/c is worth $1 and for a micro, 10 cents.

Hope that helps, and good luck with it all. Don't stop asking questions, and try to find other traders in your own locality. Any trader would gladly share with you whatever pitfalls they have discovered, as well as useful tips.

It's a fortunate trader indeed who finds a mentor early in his trading career.

Best wishes

Ivan



Still I am quite interested in the question aswell,

I just speed-read through the posts but couldnt find the awnser to one of my questions;

Scinse i live in GMT+1 It would be nice to develop a strategy around a fluid currency pair to score some trades of in the period from 4pm to 12 am (GMT +1) so:

What is the most fluid Currency pair between 4 pm and 12 am (GMT+1)?



I am guessing JPY/something... or mabye AUS?
 
Still I am quite interested in the question aswell,

I just speed-read through the posts but couldnt find the awnser to one of my questions;

Scinse i live in GMT+1 It would be nice to develop a strategy around a fluid currency pair to score some trades of in the period from 4pm to 12 am (GMT +1) so:

What is the most fluid Currency pair between 4 pm and 12 am (GMT+1)?



I am guessing JPY/something... or mabye AUS?

This is really a complex question.

Naturally, The Foreign Exchange market exists to formally exchange currencies to ensure that when goods and services get traded between countries, the respective banks have currency trades to "settle" the debt.

China is our biggest trading partner, usurping Japan for that honour in 2007.

But an almost equal amount of goods are traded with Japan, when you discount the Resources and Commodities. So, for Australia, a lot of activity will be going on during the Asian session - 0000 hrs GMT to 0900 hrs GMT.

Other Asian/Pacific nations, like New Zealand will be settling debt during this session as well. But the AUDJPY and NZDJPY will not be the only currencies experiencing higher liquidity. The rest of the world too is trading huge amounts with Japan and China, so they too will be settling accounts.

My answer would be "anything ***JPY" would lead the liquidity charge.

Japan's top 3 trading partners are China, USA and the European Union. So these countries also will require settlement of accounts.

The USA takes (well they used to) 23% of Japan's trade.
The EUR/GBP (European Union) trades 15%
China took 13.5%

Australia by comparison took only 2% of Japan's trading Value - less than 1/10th that of the USA.

Are you getting the picture?

Regardless of countries in the Asian/Pacific region, whose trading hours the Asian session covers, the world's major currency settlements will still be with the USDJPY and the EURJPY and GBPJPY.

I have not sen the CNY traded, and that is possibly because the Chinese Government has not floated the Yuan (Renminbi). I attempted to find the spread for the CNYJPY, but while I could easily find that currently ONE Yuan will buy 14.1 YEN, I could not find a broker who trades this pair. I suggest this is the job of the Bureau de Change and the banks etc - for which you may be slugged a hefty spread anyway.

The point of that waffle is that currency swaps with China and Japan are not available to the rest of the world to speculate on.

So, now you have that background, I suggest you look at these:

USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY

and to a lesser extent

AUDJPY
NZDJPY


One thing bothers me though - are you planning to open LARGE positions?

If you are, then your question might be relevant to trading liquidity concerns.

But if you are trading minis or even 10 full contracts, then I suggest your concerns about liquidity are not much to worry about.

Keep in mind that much of the Retail Trade is done with OTC (Over the Counter) or "Bucket Shops". These crooks play the LONG positions off against the SHORT and if there are any very large positions outstanding, then they have the Interbank liquidity providers to "lay off" their risk.

All OTC Retail Trade is a mirror of the Interbank price - a "Ghost Market" made by Market Makers. If they have 1000 traders with one contract LONG on the EURUSD, and the Interbank moves by ONE contract, then ALL 1000 contracts get filled, provided they are all DIFFERENT customers. This could NOT happen if ONE customer wanted to fill 1000 contracts - they would need to wait until underlying liquidity covered the position.

And that brings us back to your question ... liquidity.

With the Interbank, you have the same volume traded as with the Bucket Shops - only one is a real live trade, and the other is a speculative risk taken by you with the Bucket Shop acting as your counter-party. In other words, it is not in your broker's best interests to see you win - regardless of how much they bleat "we only make the spread and/or the commission."

That much is a lie, and they do not wish you to know it.

They DO indeed lay-off positions that are not balanced by orders in the opposite direction, but that is at their discretion.

Ever wonder why sometimes you have to ring through to the online broker to get a position accepted? That's because the jockey at the trading desk does not have the authority to allow "any more trades" on certain instruments, without higher approval, and certain trades will not be "active" on your platform when this happens.

Another ploy is to widen spreads when price is getting close to well-identified support/resistance points - and today, even pivot points and Fibonacci levels are favourite stop-hunting areas for the Bucket Shops.

Anyway - you asked a simple question, and got a rant.

I think you have your answer.

With best wishes

Ivan
 
I am a newbie (started a mongh ago) who is practicing demo account through MT4 and another is a web-based demo account of a broker. Yesterday afternoon I took a position at 1HR TF in USDJPY with a broker demo account and when I log on to check the current situation in the evening, I was surprised to note that in the evening MT4 was accepting the trade whereas the broker demo account "trade" button was simply not present.

Thanks for resolving the mystery Ingot54 about certain trades not active at given point of time.:)

Though not in a position to contradict, however, I found AUDJPY liquid may be due to the fact when I get home from full time work, the AsiaPacific region is getting ready for business.
 
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I am a newbie (started a mongh ago) who is practicing demo account through MT4 and another is a web-based demo account of a broker. Yesterday afternoon I took a position at 1HR TF in USDJPY with a broker demo account and when I log on to check the current situation in the evening, I was surprised to note that in the evening MT4 was accepting the trade whereas the broker demo account "trade" button was simply not present.

Thanks for resolving the mystery Ingot54 about certain trades not active at given point of time.:)

Though not in a position to contradict, however, I found AUDJPY liquid may be due to the fact when I get home from full time work, the AsiaPacific region is getting ready for business.



Nice, you learn something every day ;)

What time zone do you live in?
 
trade over the longer term, daily, weekly, monthly timeperiods.

profitability decreases with trading timeframe.

what will work on an inraday basis could work even better on the higher timeframes.

trade based on your circumstaces, dont change them to trade.
 
Good Advice

trade over the longer term, daily, weekly, monthly timeperiods.

profitability decreases with trading timeframe.

what will work on an inraday basis could work even better on the higher timeframes.

trade based on your circumstaces, dont change them to trade.

Excellent advice Jiggly.

Her's the skinny of trading different TF ... at least from my perspective.

Many traders shy away from trading the 1H and 4H and Daily TF for one simple reason - they don't have the capital to fund the account required to correctly place stops. In simpler terms, the margin requirement in the higher TF costs more to place a SL at a half-decent distance from entry.

I fully understand this issue - I have been there. On the daily TF you can expect to require in excess of 200-pip SL - or more if basing your stops on the Daily ATR (Average True Range). Newbies don't generally like that - they want action, and do not have the patience to wait for a trade to mature in these longer TF. Nor do they have the patience to save for a larger account, or at least the confidence to use a larger account size.

So - many traders opt to trade the lower TF - 30 min or 15 min and down to 5 min and even 1 minute (if you are loaded with enough caffeine) because of account size limitations. In so doing, they fail to develop skills necessary to use when trading longer TF.

Included in the skills needed for the longer TF:

1) Psychological ability to handle a growing profit or loss in double or triple digits, or even larger
2) Inability to handle price fluctuations that go with drawdown and "normal" noise for the TF traded
3) Lack of patience required in allowing price to "come to you" in the longer TF
4) Lack of knowledge of the correct use of Indicators, and Indicator settings, for the specific TF selected.

Point #3 is can be a remnant of the psychology traders developed in learning to "hit the button" quickly when their entry/exit signals have been triggered.

Some trading educators highly recommend that traders begin their trading lessons on the Daily and Weekly TF, and progress downwards to the faster 4H and Hourly, as skills improve. This is logical and consistent with the principles of learning.

Pushing a V8 to it's limits at Brands Hatch is not achieved the day you gain your learner's permit is it? (Not if you wish to stay wheels-down it isn't!) and the same goes for trading. Taking it slowly, and with enough attention to the quirks of the TF to allow the "aha" lights to begin to burn, is fundamental to a successful grounding in FX trading.

That's just my view - there may be some who agree, and some not in accord with that. But whatever your TF, a period of apprenticeship must be served, else you will be saving for your next account faster than you can say "Check-mate!"

The good news is that whatever knowledge you may have accumulated through your experiences in the faster TF, need not be discarded nor wasted. It can be employed in the other TF, but first the trader needs to undergo a change in mindset.

In other words, he needs to do some head work.

I used to work as a clinical Nurse in a Gaol. One of the inmates due for release came up to me one day in the clinic, and asked me to "give him something" to "take away the urge to use" narcotics and amphetamines. He was crying, and he explained to me that when he got out he would be going back to his family and cousins., who were all users and dealers.

I unfortunately had to tell him that there was no such thing as "something to stop his desire for using" but I could help him in other ways. I suggested to him that he avoid his family until he felt strong enough to manage his own life free of the need to "belong" through succumbing to peer pressure. He could not do that - his family and friends were expecting him home.

The other thing I offered him, was to seriously do some "head-work" before going home.

By that I explained to him, that he had to first develop the resolve never to touch these substances again ... not even once. Then he had to put in place a mechanism whereby he could strengthen that resolve, and even have an emergency course of action that he absolutely MUST take if the situation was pressing him to break his new "rules".

I suggested to him to find a counsellor, and some people who had also beaten the habit and to spend some time in their company too. This would encourage him, as well as wean him from his dependency on his family and friends, who he knew already, would only lead him back to old ways.

He knew what I was saying, and left the clinic torn both ways. I never did find out what his decision was, nor how he fared on release from prison. But he did have the tools (knowledge) and it is my earnest hope that he was able to pull back from what he knew was destroying him, and find a decent life outside of using - at least in the criminal sense.

The analogy applies full well to trading.

If you are prepared to do the head work and make the effort to stop what you are doing (if it is not working) and get into something that does work, you will be on the path to a new and hopefully more rewarding trading career.

I am not trying to show myself to be a smartie here - I freely admit I too am on the journey to trading success. But I am very very close to the final stage. I know now what works and what does not - for me. I have friends who successfully scalp - but for the life of me I just can't do it.

More than anything else, I know WHY I have been unsuccessful (I refuse to use the word "failed" in the context of my trading journey) up to this point. Those reasons are more to do with impatience and greed than with any other qualities, and like an alcoholic, for every trade I attempt, from today forwards, I need to be on my guard against these two enemies.

Longer TF trading can be very satisfying and rewarding. Discard the belief that is is slow, boring and maybe like watching nails rust! Yes - it may be a bit like that. But nothing beats the thrill of watching a position close to its drawdown limit, come rushing back in the beginning of the London session to make a handsome profit for you.

This not only vindicates your strategy, but it validates you as a trader, and confirms that your resolve to patiently apply your system rules, was correct. It is hard to achieve that as a scalper for me.

If it is the same for you - why not investigate the longer term style anew? You may be pleasantly surprised, that what you have been brushing aside for so long is even closer to what you are seeking psychologcally from trading than you ever imagined.

As usual ... an essay - sorry folks!

But I leave you with the memory of the Brands Hatch analogy in this attachment!

With best wishes

Ivan
 

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