Top Ten Trading Methodologies

I've heard of Boltzmann, but I'd certainly be curious to read more about his work. Is this in relation to machine learning in regards to the markets?
Creating a link shouldn't be this hard. But in this case it apparently is?:


I can't get the link to link SO.... go to you tube and carry this search with you to find the video. There will be three or so videos pop up so you don't have to search far to find the correct one. The video is titled exactly the same as the search and will be - at least should be the FIRST VIDEO.
type this search in youtube: the next generation of neural networks
you tube is here: YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.
 
Creating a link shouldn't be this hard. But in this case it apparently is?:


I can't get the link to link SO.... go to you tube and carry this search with you to find the video. There will be three or so videos pop up so you don't have to search far to find the correct one. The video is titled exactly the same as the search and will be - at least should be the FIRST VIDEO.
type this search in youtube: the next generation of neural networks
you tube is here: YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.

YouTube - The Next Generation of Neural Networks


Getting that link was SO easy.....and you want to trade forex ?
 
YouTube - The Next Generation of Neural Networks


Getting that link was SO easy.....and you want to trade forex ?

Congratulations. You have succeeded in placing - in print - a slight of my character. Allow me to now point out to you that the link doesn't work. Now, perhaps it doesn't work on my computer but it works on other members' computers. I am stuck with using Vista at the moment. I get a message telling me the video is no longer available in the window where the video is supposed to be. Is this happening to others? It happened when I made all the attempts to put the video up here. Clearly one simply copies the URL from the address bar while at youtube. and places it here.
Is there any other stuff you would like to include to attempt to make me look like a complete idiot? I look forward to your reply.
 
Winning Trading Methodologies

Gtatix,

Why should anyone reveal their extensive knowledge of winning systems, in a programmable language, possibly after years of blood and sweat research and considerable expense just because someone asks for it?

Grant.

I am replying to this only because it seems a valid question within the thread - of which I started. I am not replying directly to this question with an answer of my own creation; but with a few links pointing to a "start" - so to speak - for viewing what appear to be current winning methodologies. I have questions regarding these links. The following links lead us to what appears to be a website that - I don't doubt some of you are
familiar with - seems to offer us what worked for some as per mechanical trading methods/systems.
I would like some input as to what this information points to in a more specific manner as per forex; and input from those familiar with this contest and the systems/scripts/language shown etc.
News - Automated Trading Championship 2007

"Olexandr's Expert Advisor is based on neural networks. His trading system is rather sophisticated and consists of three independent subsystems. It helped the EA to be way ahead of its opponents, earn 130 thousand dollars, and take the first place. Its average profit per trade makes 303 dollars. The Profit Factor of this EA is 2.24. Olexandr's Expert Advisor demonstrated that not only risky EAs can gain large profits. The Expert Advisor's efficiency makes 52%, whereas its risk level is just a little above 15%. Olexandr will get the award of The First Place in the Automated Trading Championship 2007 and the prize of 40 000 dollars from ODL Securities Limited. Congratulations, Olexandr!"

News - Automated Trading Championship 2007
News - Automated Trading Championship 2007
MQL4 Documentation
 
mp --- Theres just a bit more to it than you question !

Indeed. I find this a convincing reason to not trade forex. There are probably 20K tradeable stocks accessible though IB worldwide, not to mention various futures, options, commodities etc. There is bound to be some inefficiences in that lot somewhere.

AH --- therein lies the rub laddie ! Forex DOESNT have 20K tradeabable instruments, which is what makes it so simple --- one can trade just ONE pair for the rest of ones life, of move with momentum and trade the one thats FLYING at the moment --- your choices are limitless as to how to trade and may i point out, having come from the world of equities and having done just fine, WHO WANTS TO KEEP TRACK OF 20K things of any kind ?

You can to some extent control the rules you play by in choosing the instruments intelligently. In fact that may be where an edge in trading is to be found.

Thats certainly one thing ---- I have thumbnails of each forex pair on my charts which enables me to see its intraday trends very nicely --- "sometimes" I will choose the "smoothest" trend, be it up or down, for EASE of trading, or sometimes when I feel frisky, Ill choose the most "violent" instrument, knowing I can have some fun at a very fast clip ! All depends on what and who you are and how you feel that morning !

If you are trading stocks, you have lots of inputs - broad market direction, sector/industry, stock itself: both technical and fundamental. You can also diversify, which is probably the only free lunch there is in managing risk.

While it sounds awfully nice to say the above, the horror of equities is that if you get one of these multiple signals WRONG, you are in deep serious trouble, not to forget that to enjoy the benefits of buying enough stock to make a trade worthwhile, youre gonna need a really good margin account, and to add insult to injury if you dont have 25K in that account, you cannot trade the same stock more than once every 3 days (you must have a "pattern day trader account") and you cant trade it intraday AT ALL !

In forex the material to build a system on is pretty limited. Maybe some TA, some macro economic stuff, some fundamentals. But you only get to choose from a limited number of pairs. You don't even have volume and even if you did, it's not really clear what meaning you would ascribe to it. (OK you can get volume on Globex fx futures).

While I came from equities and will never turn back, Im sure that most experienced traders on these boards know deep down that forex is one of the EASIEST instruments to trade that was ever invented, next to the main indexs ! The newcomer does not yet see the patterns and the support and resistance areas that are SO IMPORTANT to forex, and imagines all they see is randomness ---- but it simply IS NOT SO !

forex ascribes to the most basic forms of support and resistance, from which it never varies --- influenced in the short term by news driven momentum, invariably the price returns to the exact pip that it originally moved from when the news was announced --- heck,
you can make a fortune simply by setting a fib retrace and a take profit at the 50% point at midnite EST, and let the market take its profits and now short the currency --- do you want it any easier ?? (yeah, reverse if the currency went down during the day)


NOW, can that be made into a robot ? Im a manual trader and I havent a clue, but I would imagine down the road, artificial intelligence WILL become real (which leaves us humans WHERE ?) and a system can be found to do that, but I seem to be able to do it pretty well all by myself !

As far as I can see the only thing going for forex is that you can open a tiny account and trade with ridiculous leverage

Or you can open a decent account and play at being George Soros ! In no way will I say that forex is the only game in town, but its so danged simple, almost completely predictable, and the leverage SURE HELPS !

ONCE YOU HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO TRADE IT WELL !

.

enjoy and trade well

mp
 
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forex ..... is almost completely predictable

When I see statements like this, I know that something is not quite right somewhere.

No financial market is anywhere like completely predictable. Maybe a bit predictable and probably the degree of predictability is sporadic.
 
Mp -- Its The One Trick They Dont Want You To Know About !

When I see statements like this, I know that something is not quite right somewhere.

No financial market is anywhere like completely predictable. Maybe a bit predictable and probably the degree of predictability is sporadic.

===============================================================

actually, GIVEN THE TIME NEEDED FOR THE PRICE TO GET THERE, ONE CAN PREDICT ITS MOVEMENTS AND SPEED, but please notice that i said "almost" completely predictable and NOT "completely" predictable.

the forex market works on support and resistance --- it proves it intraday, daily, weekly and monthly -- fundamentals move it for a short period of time, at which point it invariably returns to exactly where it started, and then continues its trend. This support and resistance is recorded, plotted and predicted thru the use of trendlines, the LRC channels and the DeMark trends, and once used, is utterly painless !

I beat my gums about this constantly, and many disagree with a vehemence, but those who follow even some of what i teach report back profit, where only losses existed before.

I do get tired every few days of listening to those with little experience telling me how wrong i am, especially when they havent the beginnings of a clue themselves --- Ill begin to listen when you have 5 years solid trading for profit --- 10 years impresses me a bit more, but not overly ! Also understand this is a "general" rant, and not directed to you in particular, but every new group of newbs has to re-invent the wheel, when weve got, and will give them, a perfectly good set !

take a look at the enclosed chart, then read some of the responses posted about me and my methods --- read about the ones who make money or now DO NOT put me down (one gets the feeling they tried the methods, and they worked ! LOL) Notice the green down channel ? --- Notice how the prices move up and down and remain inside of the channel ? If youre moving with the trend, and it breaks out or down thru the channel, youre WAY ahead at this point --- simply trade with the ding donged trend ! WHATS SO HARD ABOUT THAT ???

The market has a rythmn and a direction --- designed to make money. It goes up to resistance, the banks, brokers and mm's sell into the rally, setting their shorts and when the currency hits its major resistance, DOWN it comes with screaming newbs selling their currencies cheaper and cheaper, which is exactly what the institutions wanted you to do. FINALLY, after the trip down is completed, the institutions cover with the last of the gasping retail clients, AND NOW THE CURRENCY GOES BACK UP with the institutions now having cheap shares to sell the dumb money, who now buys the rally --- AND THE WHOLE THING STARTS OVER AGAIN, AND AGAIN, AND AGAIN !

one needs a few years of trading (perhaps my 30 will do ?) and they can begin to understand how the GAME is played, but to the newbs it seems a random collection of garbage, which it is not --- its deadly serious, well planned, works on an almost completely predictable timetable and is just not particularly hard, IF ONE HAS THE EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE !

ITS THE ONE, ALL ENVELOPING TRICK OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS THE PROS WONT TELL YOU ABOUT, cause its how they make their money and they dont want you eating their lunch !

of course, that last statement takes time to accomplish, which is why I get so much disagreement on these boards, but never from those who see my accounts or trade using the channels !

enjoy and trade well

but learn what its all about, cause this aint monopoly

mp
 

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gtatix said:
This "psychological factor" is overrated as far as I am concerned.

Thanks.

psychology is a huge part of the emotions that kick in when trading, greed & fear, keeping disciplined and following a set of rules. it is equally as important as having a profitable "edge" and being sufficiently capitalized.

The only way you can remove your own psychology from the trading equation is to have an automated set of rules and take yourself out of the process entirely, even though you can still sweat it when your system is taking a beating by the market.
 
The only way you can remove your own psychology from the trading equation is to have an automated set of rules and take yourself out of the process entirely, even though you can still sweat it when your system is taking a beating by the market.

Agree.

But ~ do you not think the only way you can completely remove your own psychology from the trading equation is either have a set-up where the computer does it all or you employ an assistant to enter the trades for you ?

If you're pressing the button, you are involved.

NK
 
Agree.

But ~ do you not think the only way you can completely remove your own psychology from the trading equation is either have a set-up where the computer does it all or you employ an assistant to enter the trades for you ?

If you're pressing the button, you are involved.

NK

agree totally. even if fully automated, you can still crap yourself, which means the psychology is there... especially if you're tempted to intervene
 
which means the psychology is there... especially if you're tempted to intervene

But ~ if the 'leggy' assistant you've employed to place your trades tells you not to intervene, you don't.

You wouldn't want favours removed, would you........ :innocent:
 
I have floated the idea of members reviewing software etc, for this website. Amazingly Sharkey thinks this is a good idea too. So hopefully some of you guys will put your views on the thread too- called software review Maybe you will get to review that system you were wondering about - for FREE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:clap::clap::clap:
 
What about reviews of 'systems' touted by snake oil vendors ?

I realise that members have posted thoughts on particular paid-for systems, but if there was a panel of more experienced traders doing it, this maybe of more use to the newbies. They would seem to be the more likely purchasers of these 'courses'
 
"Bring back Alcatraz - for the crooks
Bring back Bedlam - for the lunatics

And have a better world"


Here Pat ~ you forgot to put in "Bring Back National Service"
 
Arrange these words into a sentence:

"Zero my is account now"



:clap:
Perhaps you didn't look at my icon. I love puzzles. This one is too easy. Would you like to quantify the allusion to losing one's account with wishing to dismiss the "psychological factor?" I was basically stating that if you are going to be technical, you don't become emotional. It MAY be easier said than done. It may be outright wrong! One poster suggested that you need emotion to react to certain times that the technicals appear wrong.
The psychological factor I am referring to encompasses greed and fear. A trader may want to squeeze out more from a trade - even though a trend is looking to end as per the technicals. A trader may get freaked-out when the direction of the currency pair does a 180 right after placing the trade. This may be normal and may happen 40% of the time - it may do this, but only for 10 pips where it then retraces to do what the technicals had predicted in the first place. The fear "factor" could have caused the trader to dump the trade. Perhaps there are other psychological factors that could - or do - exist that I didn't include here. I was thinking more along the lines of greed and fear. I am also thinking that trading technically should be just that. If one is of strong mind - or a strong mindset as per their trading methodology - one should be able to be technical instead of emotional. I don't think that this is too difficult to do if you are focussed and you are aware of this requirement. Again, this could be the wrong approach. I think that once known that it is simple to follow. If you believe in something and you know the odds of something working or failing. If you know that you will have failures - but that the winners overcome the losers, then you should be able to conclude that reacting to a loser or winner in an emotional way is useless.
 
MP -- psychology actually falls away after a while

agree totally. even if fully automated, you can still crap yourself, which means the psychology is there... especially if you're tempted to intervene
==========================================================

once upon a time i would have immediately agreed with you, having been raised on the same books and "quotes" from the experts and guru's, but over time, although i hate to keep repeating it, i believe it comes down to "experience".

experience is what lets me stay in a move, even when the move is going against me because I HAVE A DANGED GOOD IDEA that im being "headfaked" by the mms, and so I hold my positions to their logical exits. Much maligned on this site, but INDICATORS are VERY important in verifying my feelings, although they are just ONE tool I use.

In the beginning, those without experience are those without tools ---- they are working on gut, fear, greed and NO experience --- to put it mildly, they are trading on STUPIDITY.

If they are lucky enough to survive a year or so, they BEGIN to get the idea but amazingly, unlike the world of stocks, newbs in forex dont really seem to want to learn to trade --- they appear to want to recieve "easy money !"

so while i will always claim that experience will sooner or later CONQUER fear and greed, i recognize that IN THE BEGINNING and WITHOUT experience, your own mind is the most dangerous thing working against you when trading, and I recognize that only a FEW will actually make it down the trail, which is probably a good thing overall !

Of course, that has much bearing on the "cowboys" who work for shops and institutions, but in that situation, greed and a certain white powder are the motivating factors !

mp
 
i would have thought the main objective would be to take as much money from the banks / spread betting firms as is possible. i understand people have worked hard to develop their own systems etc but beating the bookie so to speak has to be good news for everyone so why not divulge a system if it works. the market is big enough to absorb whatever anybody can throw at it
 
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