Tom Hougaard


Well-known member
Just been on Bloomberg.

Extremeley bearish for October- looking to go short on Dow at 9501, if that gets taken out 9560 looking to test 8600 (10% adjustment).

Ditto FTSE 100 to test sub 4000
Opinions like indicators are only valid if supported by price action.

Markets exist because there is disagreement.
I find his analysis can be hard to follow at times. There are days when he seems to say it could move up, down or sideways. The market maps were interesting but having spent a lot of time looking at them, I prefer to make up my own mind. I remember when he predicted 3 down days and the market went up for 3 days. He has been predicting a top since early September and I think he is going to get it right one day. He did get the top of the market spot on last year but it can be an expensive game shorting a strong market.
Oh yeah, he's very good. On Monday his 'prediction' was for a massive down down of 1987 crash proportions. The dow finished up 60 points.

Don't listen to anyone that claims to be able to predict the market and especially if they want you to pay for that prediction.

I've nothing against Tom, he's a nice guy, but his marketmap or roadmap or whatever it is, is just pointless. When it was posted on here for free it seemed no better than random, I'm amazed that he's now charging for it! Some days it was very accurate as long as you turned it upside down and inside out.
he's now on elite

keeps moving about for some reason !

That's the power of psychology for you Dr.L -- When I read Your posts I hear Anthony Hopkin's voice in my head!
Me too. I can picture Dr Lecter, sitting in his cell with a glass of claret, trading from a lap top computer, spouting trading anecdotes to starling, who is madly trying to make sense of it all!
This guy has made a couple of phenomenal calls in the last 18 months that I know of... e.g. a top last year. And some others but on the whole, particularly in the last few months, all he's been calling for is a top and a crash.... He's been saying almost every day since august and it just ain't happening... As Bigbusiness said, he'll get it right one day, but what about ALL the DAYS he got it wrong? Someone should make him account for all this.... At least bloomy's is making diary notes, and will ask him when he's back....
I don't think his marketmaps were based on gut feel - i'm sure he did back it up with his own method of anlysis, but they haven't been living up to what they say! So obviously his anlysis is flawed and he should realize that...
It's easy to call a top every week, and then not get it and continue calling it, cos one of these days it will come about...
If Tom's right about the coming fall, 8550 is the target for the Dow before another move up to about 10350. All prices based on Elliott wave and Fib retracements/extensions. It could happen and one of the main analysis tools I believe he uses does back this up as an option, but I'll be playing it one day at a time!
Beam-me-up, you're spot on. The good calls get lauded about all over the place, the bad ones just get brushed under the carpet.

I actually met Tom Hougaard not so long ago and he initially came across as a throughly nice guy, and I have no doubt that he would kick my backside on most intraday stuff, but his longer term calls do leave something to be desired. Sometime back in July (after the 4th, I think) he was calling for the "mother of all shorts" - anyone else remember that? Well, I think we're still waiting for it, arent we? ;) I believe that a lot of his analysis is based on 20 and 40 YEAR cyclicals, so sometime before 2043 we should get a result. Oh sheet, I'll prolly be dead by then...

you say 'initially he came across as a nice guy'. Does that mean you fell out with him after you'd spoken to him? Perhaps he wasn't keen on you nicking his roadmap idea!
Well no, I'm sure he is a nice guy, maybe that comes across wrong/badly. Cant comment on "rossos road" as he never told me what he thought. Maybe that speaks for itself. Oh well, thats another sleepless night...

I just meant that the good calls get shouted about and the bad ones dont, thats all.
I remember the Mother of All Shorts - it was for July 4.

Looks like Old Mother Short is a bit of a tease, and is just keeping us waiting. :cheesy:
I also remember the mother of all shorts.

Tom can be quite good when you go with him but you have to keep strict stops for those times when he really gets it wrong.
If he was a good chartist he would not be on bloomberg but at home making money!!
I must say I dont know Tom's work, but take no notice of where people "think " the mkt is going to be !!

Get 10 "gurus" on these boards and i bet u 5 will be bulllish and 5 bearish !! otherwise we will never have a mkt - lol
hey will all have very reasonable arguments, BUT their views will be different-

Just have to take probablity and get the risk:reward and money mgt part right............... BUT easily said than done- LOLLL