Tipping Point...S&P & Indices, Commodities etc

[The Baptist]

I am verging on a number of what I believe High Probability Trades:

Long GBPUSD on a Break Out over next few days - current 1.6459 (likely to be off Monday/Tuesday before BO?) see chart of expected price action

Short S&P500 on a stop entry 899 - current - 920.9 (time for this to fill still)

Short SoyBean Meal July - Have been short for awhile but believe early gains are small percentage of fall due.

My view is that a large relief rally is tiring and both Commodities and Shares will tank.

I am also short QMN9 - NYMEX miNY Light Sweet Crude Oil, Jul 2009 from 71.90

On the commodities & S&P side this is a counter trend trade, I rarely do these, but the speed of relief rally is likely to deliver a substantial and fast move south as fear reasserts..

Which will set up the biggest of the uplegs (2nd upleg is always better).

Just put up the GBP chart up as it is the most immediate


In my view the GBP has not yet broken out. however it is a highly advanced pattern.

I had a long GBPUSD, but as I still expect a retracement, I closed this and pegged a buy stop point below current action to get a better fill.

The risk is that I miss the BO. Previously I have always biased to be in and ruined Risk reward ratio on drawdown.

I have decided where market action has not completed I will rather miss a few BO trades and rather nail the ones that behave as expected.


I have also placed Short stop entry orders on the S&P as detailed above below 899.9

 

[The Baptist]

some of the current trade orders.

On Cable I got out after a nice candle on Friday in anticipation a better pt to get back in will occur, also cleared a nasty market fill that came in Sunday evening on FX on my trading paltform..

 

[Jason Rogers]

Nice setup. I got into GBP/USD a little too early, but think we will see continuation of the trend after this consolidation.

 

[The Baptist]

Nice setup. I got into GBP/USD a little too early, but think we will see continuation of the trend after this consolidation.

Agreed.

The ascending shape of triangle lend emphasis to a fair to strong break..

 

[The Baptist]

S&P 500 triggered as expected..

My entries are the arrows on the daily Candle of today, stops and targets (a fair way off!) are visible.

My blog details further.

I believe we are/may see the return of....FEAR....dum.dum.dum...dumdumd..dumdum

 

[Jason Rogers]

Fear indeed, just in time for the summer doldrums. My favorite fear index went up today.

My entries are the arrows on the daily Candle of today, stops and targets (a fair way off!) are visible.

My blog details further.

I believe we are/may see the return of....FEAR....dum.dum.dum...dumdumd..dumdum

 

[The Baptist]

Soybean Meal July...has however made me the most 'beans'

...

This commodity had largest vertical bull blow off so I got in just post peak thankfully,... I believe this has a long way down to fall..

Hope you guys are making money, in my view be short all commodities getting ready to long buy the pound later this week...

Got 'very short' SB Meal just post explosive blow off from 408 2 days later we are at 376 for 8% - I expect 30% plus here, as witnessed by me buy stops visible on the chart..

Plenty still to play for.

 

[The Baptist]

Crude Sep

...

This commodity had largest vertical bull blow off so I got in just post peak thankfully,... I believe this has a long way down to fall..

Hope you guys are making money, in my view be short all commodities getting ready to long buy the pound later this week...

Got 'very short' SB Meal just post explosive blow off from 408 2 days later we are at 376 for 8% - I expect 30% plus here, as witnessed by me buy stops visible on the chart..

Plenty still to play for.

I am short July Crude, but chart is gone as it has expired? posted September...From 71.8 this could go sub $50 as well.....Sell....Sell....Sell.....Sell

 

[N Rothschild]

i would be selling gbp on that bullish traingle..

 

[The Baptist]

I predict the FOMC meeting this Wednesday will turn out a shocker for the US Dollar regardless of who sais what.. Remember they choose the story to fit the subsequent events

 

[The Baptist]

i would be selling gbp on that bullish traingle..

The classic Bullish triangle you are referring to, is that that usually leads to declines has successive highs in successive ways.

Whilst we may be wrong the probabilities usually favour continuation of trend on what is referred to as a 'Symetrical' triangles.

Which this patternis , although the Highs are close to equivalence, if all level we have an ascending wedge, still on balance bullish..
Ibeliev the answer awaits on Wednesday with a bottoming and ending the day on an up note tomorrow, if Behaving as expected...

 

[Jason Rogers]

Oil has broken trend line one, and now possibly targeting trend line two. Another interesting trade you could make is shorting CAD/JPY. Article here

I am short July Crude, but chart is gone as it has expired? posted September...From 71.8 this could go sub $50 as well.....Sell....Sell....Sell.....Sell