Time To Go Long

[TomTom]

These days more and more bad news comes across the wires. The important thing is the market prices.
Last week we saw losses on index's with most close to a double bottom.
Friday saw some large buyers supporting the DOW & S+P 500 index.

I can not say any thing long term, however for this coming week my strategy is to be a buyer on any pull back ( Fibonacci )and not a seller.

Fridays action saw large battles as DOW attempted to clear 11200.
This was similar with the S&P index as it struggled to breach 1240.

Its fair to say most longs have been liquidated with those who were long now wanting to be come a seller. WRONG ! But this is how markets catch people out.

My assumption may be wrong but one has to have a strategy before going in to battle.

You heard it first here.

Happy buying .....

Or should I post ' I'm a Seller ' just to cover my back loll

 

[hwsteele]

I think you are correct. I believe the week will be up with a short correction in the middle.

 

[Zig Zag]

On the short side...

I disagree - I hope without being disagreeable.

There is much technical weakness in this Fannie / Freddie surge. It looks very much like a blue chip rally to me - and that further lows are forthcoming. Bailouts are a sign of failure... not success... not that the bottom is past but that it is forthcoming.

Happy to discuss. Always doubtful of my position...

Z.

 

[hwsteele]

You don't think we will see 1300 before we see 1200?

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

More bottoming I say. I shorted the nasdaq mini on sunday night to prove it. The highs are a head fake. Freddie and Fannie is killing the US stock indexes and economy very slowly.

Lower lows signal a down trend. Reversal is not here quite yet (IMO). If the highs stick, go ahead and buy, otherwise sell the tops.

 

[hwsteele]

How far down do you think the nasdaq will go? The Big picture shows the september low to be higher than the july low which was higher than the march low. Going back a year we see that the waves are getting smaller which would seem to indicate that it will break out soon. Up or Down? I think up but thats just me and for the big picture a little ways off.
Hope you make out well with your trade!

 

[TomTom]

Thankyou for all you comments.
What we have here is lots of money what has been on the side lines going in to the market, all that was required was some fantastic news to start the influx IE bailout time.
Yesterday action taken out even more longs at the begining of the day, I was surprised to see the S&P go below 1250.
I was an agressive buyer after 1250 was beached to the upside again.
All I can say is we shall see 1292 if any more any selling takes place.

I do have a stratogy that is based on patterns, this works because us humans reconinse patterns as a way of life.
Im considering getting a web cam to show my trading activity through out the day to pass on over a decade of expierance to people who is intrested.

As you know I hate spread betting companies I trade 1 piont spread on DOW 0.10 on the S&P with redicliousely low comissons Instant fills any time of day guarenteed.
Shorting Shares using Spread Betting

Happy trading .
TOMTOM

 

[TomTom]

TIME 15.55 SPX is toying with 1248 will be getting some longs.
We have had the nececerry shake out .
Now agressively Long .
Love it when a plan comes together
Stops 1244.25 Taget as much as poss before end of trading

Happy Tading .

 

[hwsteele]

I guess by now you were stopped out? I think the S&P500 needed to touch 1240 before it will head back to 1275 and then 1310. I'm guessing you will get back in?

 

[si1503]

More bottoming I say. I shorted the nasdaq mini on sunday night to prove it. The highs are a head fake. Freddie and Fannie is killing the US stock indexes and economy very slowly.

Lower lows signal a down trend. Reversal is not here quite yet (IMO). If the highs stick, go ahead and buy, otherwise sell the tops.

I mostly agree with this, the fundamental outlook is going from bad to worse and the technicals do not look much better. As you said, killing the economy very slowly... and not just the US, the issues are global.

 

[Zig Zag]

IMHO lower lows ahead

I thought Monday's Fannie / Freddie rally lacked market breadth. The Nasdaq 100 actually fell on that day. Up volume was not that strong - for a DJIA 300 pt rally. I got caught with uncovered puts and decided to hang on and sold at the close today (what relief! - but maybe I should have held on).

I am expecting a correction Wednesday morning (up) before the market goes to new lows (by the close). The basis for this is that today's market ended with what looks to me like a full Elliott Wave - although the waves were a little sloppy - so I may be wrong about the count and the correction coming.

TT: You mention that you use Fibonacci. I have only been using it for a few months and I think it is fantastic. I use it on the DJIA to time trades. Todays close below DJIA 11,250 was Fib 61.8. Amazing.

Are there any other tools / indicators you can recommend?

 

[nine]

Calling bottoms is fun (like calling tops through most of 2007) but its also a great way to lose money.

I have no idea if the markets will go lower or not but the current formations are looking as much like a consolidation in a down trend as a bottom. We really seem to be in a "sell the rallys" phase rather than a "buy the dips" phase.

I recall last year declaring that every time a good number of people on ET declared a top it was time to buy. Same thing here perhaps?

 

[wasp]

Where's bid-a-tool when you need him?

 

[Zig Zag]

Furthermore...

Picking tops and bottoms aside...
Acceleration Oscillators are about to go Negative.
One attachment.

 

[Zig Zag]

Correction!

Is this just a correction?

Bullish % flat on the S&P 500 but down on the NYSE and NASDAQ and falling.

All indicies rallying at the end of the day and up for the day (except AMEX).

All indicators for market breadth - down.

Shorts covering? A little blue chippie?

Accelerators are rising and positive. The rally will spill over into the Fri session unless Bernanke sneezes. And from there?

Z.Z.

 

[TomTom]

The price action of this week has surprised me.
On Sunday 8th Sept I posted time to buy and we did see some major upward moves before agressive selling.
This weeks lows have taken out the longs all right with 1210 making buyers come back to the table.
To kill a large animal one has to scrifice some small incects.

Its Mid September and soon we will get an end of year rally.

For me Im getting postioned before any explosion to the upside with a view of holding till year end/ January.

Indeed calling markey bottums is extreamly dangerose so is picking the tops as most failed in the 1998, 1999s .

What we have here is failing economy that is all ready priced in to the market. Should more bad news come out to surprise and we break below 1208 I was wrong.

Untill that I will contiinue to buy any dips with the apropiate stoploss orders.

Happy Trading Fokes

 

[Zig Zag]

Santa is not coming this Christmas.

Tom Tom, my friend.

This is a 1930s-style credit meltdown. There is nothing left to lend money into. Credit is contracting. All asset values are falling. This is deflation 1930s-style. Everything will lose value. Especially stocks. It is going to go on for many many months...

T-bill yields dropped to about 1% today so the fed will almost certainly cut 1/4 tomorrow.

That will be the last hurrah. I have gone flat in this expectation but I will be loading up on Aug Index Puts in the rally. Hope you're there with me.

P.

 

[TomTom]

Hi Zigag M8
Yesterday I did not trade too much action for me.
One thing we have breached 1200 on the S&P and this is the leaman affect
End of year rally ehh ?
Will we see one ?
Indeed everyone is scared, no faith in the system and everyone last night in the pub was chatting about the markets falling. This sends the message I have been waiting for.
I will not buy this market untill we go over 1200 on the S&P. Todate I have suffered some small losses in the attempt to go long and hold.
So with 1200 as a catalist I will be agressively buying into this, and selling December Puts 1150 while the price's are attrective but only as we breach 1200.

Its been a long time comming.

My views are get on board at round 1200 and hold with stops and add to postions ( takeing some off the table as nececerry to pay living expenses ect )

One can be wrong some of the time but cant be wrong all of the time

 

[TomTom]

Time 12.05 Long 5 S&P 1181.50 With Limmits to Long 5 at 1188 then another 5 1193 and so on.
Got stops at 1179.50.
Looking for a reversal today ........

So you guys still want to sell this ???

Moved stops to 1177.50 ..........then again to 1174.00 after avraging out.

The dow chart has a double bottom from

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

i'M STILL short, not by choice really, but tomorrow I'm looking for a down move.
Feeling a bit trapped as the short rally caught me unexpected

Sold the ER2 @ 691.