Time & Price, Volume Confirms

[Mr Fox]

I think it is like driving in fog. Possible but you are hampering the quality of your trade selection and therefore placing greater emphasis on entry timing and exit timing to skew your r:r higher to compensate for a lower win%

Wrt to indicators, I think they are b0llocks unless you are using them to see where other people may want the trade and you have a strategy which games them or aids you in some way.

Each to their own though. Plenty of ways to skin the cat and trading is a broad church.

I totally agree with you, and I've been taught to trade without using any indicators, and that's the way I trade. I trade only one Fx currency pair, so let me ask you how you would see volume on there.

Best
John

 

[robster970]

You mean for daytraders and scalpers ? Because many may swing or position trade normally without even looking at the volume ...

Yeah this is all intra day context from me, but I also think it is applicable on higher time frames.

 

[tar]

Yeah this is all intra day context from me, but I also think it is applicable on higher time frames.

A position trader who may hold for months , may look at OI and COT reports ...

 

[robster970]

I totally agree with you, and I've been taught to trade without using any indicators, and that's the way I trade. I trade only one Fx currency pair, so let me ask you how you would see volume on there.

Best
John

I don't think you can, can you? Its interbank and not centralised so how can you know who is trading in volume?

 

[Mr Fox]

I don't think you can, can you? Its interbank and not centralised so how can you know who is trading in volume?

I wasn't sure mate, that's why I asked, but if I was to trade using the system I use to trade S&P then again I am trading it without using volume. I have had a look at S&P for Friday, and using my methodology there was 5 trades on a one min chart that had a less than 5 point SL(+spread), yet gave a 1:3 risk:reward ratio, or more.

Does that mean I will now be trading it? No, and the reason for this is that I only trade on currency, and focus all my effort on that. That does not mean I will not be listening to what you say, as who knows what the future holds, and what I end up trading, so the more I can learn from people with more expertise the better it is for me.

Best
John

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Sure, no problem.

ok will precis this weekend

 

[MajorMagnuM]

ok will precis this weekend

Here is the link

And here is a quick index.
Coloured text highlights moments that interested me.
clearly there will be some conversation on vol and fx etc after this and the possibilities of using some substitute.

Linda Raschke notes
start through to:
1) volume needs to be in context. 02:30
2) up to 07:24 outlines her general style. Mentions 7 bar closes above 5sma, next dip down is a buy.
3) At 13:32 the significance of NYSE volume in defining the xer of the day
4) 17:24 starts talking about volume spikes
5) 20:15 four volume patterns. Reversal, Breakout, Continuation, Climax. Also divergence
6) 25:07 volume spikes not associated with breaks of support. Interesting clue
7) 30:00 comparing divergence on different indies to price and volume
8) 31:25 this moment made me sit up straight check it out Boom!
9) 33:39 Surely this is potential gold.....
10) 36:34 comparison of candlesticks to candle volume.
11) 42:14 stop placement and volume bars
12) 55:55 suggesting p.a interaction with keltner channels can function as a volume proxy!!!

 

[robster970]

Will watch it all this evening once the kids are in bed.

 

[robster970]

That's quite an interesting video. Will post up some stuff tomorrow MM as I am knackered tonight. Take it easy. Talk tomorrow.

 

[counter_violent]

Here is the link

And here is a quick index.
Coloured text highlights moments that interested me.
clearly there will be some conversation on vol and fx etc after this and the possibilities of using some substitute.

Linda Raschke notes
start through to:
1) volume needs to be in context. 02:30
2) up to 07:24 outlines her general style. Mentions 7 bar closes above 5sma, next dip down is a buy.
3) At 13:32 the significance of NYSE volume in defining the xer of the day
4) 17:24 starts talking about volume spikes
5) 20:15 four volume patterns. Reversal, Breakout, Continuation, Climax. Also divergence
6) 25:07 volume spikes not associated with breaks of support. Interesting clue
7) 30:00 comparing divergence on different indies to price and volume
8) 31:25 this moment made me sit up straight check it out Boom!
9) 33:39 Surely this is potential gold.....
10) 36:34 comparison of candlesticks to candle volume.
11) 42:14 stop placement and volume bars
12) 55:55 suggesting p.a interaction with keltner channels can function as a volume proxy!!!

Seen this vid before and filed it away for consideration later.
However, seeing as though it's popped up again, started gathering info to look at in more detail. Equivolume looks very interesting.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:equivolume

Pdf download from the man himself.
http://www.armsinsider.com/pdf/index.asp

 

[robster970]

ok will precis this weekend

OK - had some sleep now and feel alive. On a personal level, I have trouble listening to LBR because of her monotone voice, not because of the content so have never really spent much time reviewing anything she does.

That said, I thought it was a pretty good primer on using volume in your trading and it did actually cover the specific example I am demonstrating on here which is an exhaustion spike before price turns. I thought some of her set-ups were interesting but as she says, she is a swing trader at heart and I have the same problem as her (insofar as I look for good trade entry location to maximise r:r on a trade) and therefore some of those breakout trades from S/R she highlighted, I just would not be able to take either.

Not a bad find MM - nice contribution

You going to use any of it?

Also can anyone comment on the efficacy or even the existence of volume in FX (I know Ballard mentioned using tick as an approximation)?

 

[robster970]

Thought this was funny.

 

[robster970]

Today's volume related shennanigans.

In at 46, out at 42.25 (a fluffed entry and exit tbh, could do better).

I chose not to wait today because I saw how much volume was coming in on the 15:00 candle and assumed this was the initiation of a larger move after it had already got sticky around 47.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

OK - had some sleep now and feel alive. On a personal level, I have trouble listening to LBR because of her monotone voice, not because of the content so have never really spent much time reviewing anything she does.

That said, I thought it was a pretty good primer on using volume in your trading and it did actually cover the specific example I am demonstrating on here which is an exhaustion spike before price turns. I thought some of her set-ups were interesting but as she says, she is a swing trader at heart and I have the same problem as her (insofar as I look for good trade entry location to maximise r:r on a trade) and therefore some of those breakout trades from S/R she highlighted, I just would not be able to take either.

Not a bad find MM - nice contribution

You going to use any of it?

Also can anyone comment on the efficacy or even the existence of volume in FX (I know Ballard mentioned using tick as an approximation)?

well, if , as t. williams suggest, a decent tick vol source is an adequate proxy in fx trading for real vol, then i wld def try those candlevol/equivol bars! but i have read many many threads on vsa etc and there seems to be no clear concensus

 

[robster970]

well, if , as t. williams suggest, a decent tick vol source is an adequate proxy in fx trading for real vol, then i wld def try those candlevol/equivol bars! but i have read many many threads on vsa etc and there seems to be no clear concensus

I'm with you here. I would rather trade something with full transparency of orders. Maybe one day I might feel differently but right now, for me, it is off the table.

 

[counter_violent]

Today's volume related shennanigans.

In at 46, out at 42.25 (a fluffed entry and exit tbh, could do better).

I chose not to wait today because I saw how much volume was coming in on the 15:00 candle and assumed this was the initiation of a larger move after it had already got sticky around 47.

Yeah, sums up todays early action...weak short shake out stops to the upside...but if it does drop, could be large.

 

[counter_violent]

well, if , as t. williams suggest, a decent tick vol source is an adequate proxy in fx trading for real vol, then i wld def try those candlevol/equivol bars! but i have read many many threads on vsa etc and there seems to be no clear concensus

Well it's interesting that you use the word "concensus"
Have you considered that these equibars tend to appear when there is "whole market concensus" perhaps that is the filter required !

 

[robster970]

Yeah, sums up todays early action...weak short shake out stops to the upside...but if it does drop, could be large.

It's hovering around your 10pt marker - trading 37 right now.

 

[counter_violent]

It's hovering around your 10pt marker - trading 37 right now.

Yeah, I just have a feeling that it may come later. JPY crosses not quite behaving atm, but they could come into line in an instant.

 

[robster970]

An oldie if you fancy a bit of Socrates

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/psychology-risk-money-management/10672-journey-basement.html