Tifia Daily Market Analytics

TifiaFX

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GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure from disappointing macro data
15/01/2020

After the release of fresh UK macro data (at 09:30 GMT), GBP / USD continued to decline on Wednesday, trading at the moment near the 1.2995 mark and the EMA50 support level on the daily chart.
The dynamics of the pound, which has already fallen by about 2% since the beginning of the year, is determined by weak macro data coming from the UK and the continuing uncertainty about Brexit.
The UK should leave the EU on January 31, although access to the EU markets in their current form will remain at least until the end of this year, while the terms of a new agreement are being worked out.
However, weak economic data suggests that uncertainty about Brexit harms the economy more than many observers expected.
Following comments by Bank of England management and disappointing macro data this week, market participants sharply increased the likelihood of policy easing at a Bank of England meeting on January 30. If the bank really lowers the rate (as predicted by some economists, by 0.25%), then the drop in the pound in the absence of progress on Brexit is likely to accelerate.
Now the attention of market participants has shifted to the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The signing process will begin at 16:00 (GMT). The White House will evaluate the progress made and, possibly, reduce duties on goods from China again, but not earlier than 10 months after the signing of the trade agreement planned for today. Existing duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect until the end of the US presidential election in November 2020.
Despite today's decline in the pound, above the key support level of 1.2800 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains.
If GBP / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP/USD reduce in the wave that started in July 2014, near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
Buy Stop 1.3055. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

 

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DJIA: positive fundamental background
16/01/2020

Despite the fact that the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China has largely been won back by markets, investors enthusiastically welcomed this event.
US President Donald Trump called the deal a crucial and unprecedented step in relations with China, leading to "fair and mutually beneficial trade".
Speaking to reporters, Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the signed agreement the best deal ever made between the United States and China.
The United States agreed to lower duties on Chinese goods worth $ 120 billion to 7.5% and to cancel the previously planned introduction of new duties on imports from China.
Meanwhile, as Trump had previously stated, the remaining fees will be used in working out the “second phase” agreement.
If, in the course of fulfilling the obligations undertaken, one of the parties violates them, then the infringed party will be entitled to take “proportional measures of protection”, which, in essence, means the restoration of duties.
So far, markets have ignored the likelihood of possible complications during the elaboration of the “second stage” of the trade agreement.
As the Beige Book published last Wednesday, the U.S. economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the last six weeks of 2019. “Expectations regarding short-term prospects remain moderately favorable in the country”, the Fed said.
Thus, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further growth of US stock indices and the DJIA index as well.
In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28855.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28420.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27400.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key support levels of 27400.0, 27100.0, the long-term upward dynamics of the DJIA remains.
Support Levels: 28855.0, 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 25945.0, 25050.0, 24600.0, 23970.0
Resistance Levels: 29180.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 29205.0. Stop-Loss 28850.0. Take-Profit 29300.0, 30000.0
Sell Stop 28850.0. Stop-Loss 29205.0. Take-Profit 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0

 

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EUR/USD: the pair is again under pressure
17/01/2020

The weakening Euro and lower EUR / USD continued on Friday. On Thursday and Friday, the EUR / USD pair has broken important support levels of 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1122 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and continued to decline towards the support level 1.1109 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) .
In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1109 and further decrease, the goal will be the local support level 1.1064. A deeper decline or resumption of growth will depend on the fundamental background.
As follows from the protocols published on Thursday from the December meeting of the ECB, the bank's leaders promised not to raise the key interest rate until inflation reaches the target level (slightly less than 2%), which is unlikely in the coming months and, possibly, years. The executives also said that even with negative rates, bank returns will be on the positive side, noting that interest rates can be reduced even more if necessary.
At the same time, previously published macro data showed that at the beginning of 2020, the US fundamental indicators supporting consumer spending (low unemployment and rising earnings) remain stable. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, retail sales in December grew by 0.3%. As you know, consumer spending is more than 2/3 of US GDP.
Today, market participants will follow the publication at 15:00 (GMT) of the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January. It is expected that this indicator will be released in January with a value of 99.4 (against 99.3 in December). This is a high indicator, which indicates the growth of the economy and the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. The publication of the indicator is also likely to support the dollar.
Below the key resistance level of 1.1155 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains and short positions are preferred.
In an alternative scenario, a signal to resume purchases will be a growth into the zone above resistance levels 1.1122, 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.1109, 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Resistance Levels: 1.1120, 1.1138, 1.1155, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900
Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285

 

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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
After the publication of data from the retail sector in the UK and the USA last Friday, GBP / USD continues to decline today for the second day in a row.
In the UK, retail sales in December fell by -0.6% in the country (v.s. a forecast of +0.7%), and in the United States, according to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, they grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month.
Strong retail sales in the 4th quarter will have a positive impact on the growth rate of US GDP, economists say, expecting GDP growth in the 4th quarter at 2.5 - 2.6%.
At the same time, weak macro data recently received from the UK reinforce expectations of a softening of the Bank of England policy at a meeting on January 30.
In the USA today is a day off on the occasion of the celebration of the birthday of Martin L. King. Therefore, trading volumes during the american trading session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the "thin market".
The volatility in the GBP / USD pair may again rise sharply tomorrow after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of the UK labor market data. It is likely that the data will indicate a slowdown in wage growth and that unemployment is no longer dropping, although it is close to the lows over the past few years.
Meanwhile, the GBP / USD pair broke through the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and is trading below important resistance levels of 1.2995 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).
In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2955, 1.2910 (local lows), a further decrease in GBP / USD is likely.
Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
Resistance Levels: 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2945. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800
Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2945. Take-Profit 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510


 

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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
21/01/2020

In December, following a decision by the Bank of Canada not to change monetary policy, and amid a weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair fell sharply, breaking through the key support level of 1.3195 (ЕМА144 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The Bank of Canada leadership is looking positively at the state of the country's economy and labor market. Back in November, Stephen Poloz said that "the current monetary policy remains appropriate in this situation" and, in his opinion, it still "largely remains stimulating".
The regular meeting of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy issues will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT).
As expected, the Bank of Canada will not change the current interest rate, which is at the level of 1.75%, and will give a moderately positive assessment of the state of the Canadian economy. At 16:15, the bank’s press conference will begin, which can also cause sharp fluctuations in the Canadian dollar quotes if unexpected statements are made by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz.
USD / CAD reached 1.2957 mark in January. Nevertheless, the breakdown of the support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which would indicate a break in the bull trend, has not occurred, so far, and the USD / CAD is growing again, breaking through the short-term resistance level 1.3052 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The immediate goal in case of continued growth of USD / CAD will be the resistance level 1.3096 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of its breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3195. Growth into the zone above this resistance level will indicate a restoration of the bullish trend of USD / CAD.
You can return to sales if USD / CAD falls into the zone below the support level of 1.3027.
Below this level, short positions will again become preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3052, 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
Resistance Levels: 1.3096, 1.3120, 1.3195, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400


 

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AUD/USD: the pair remains under pressure
22/01/2020

Last year, the RBA cut interest rates three times amid a trade conflict between the US and China and weak growth in the Australian economy. In December, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. Now, labor market conditions, household consumption growth rates, and company investment are key to the February meeting of the RBA, after the US and China entered into a “first phase” trade agreement last week.
RBA managing director Philip Lowe in November admitted the possibility of further stimulating the Australian economy after the rate drops below 0.25%. In the Australian economy, consumer demand is now declining and in recession. Personal consumption accounts for almost 60% of GDP, so the RBA always focuses on spending in stores. Without rapid growth in personal consumption, employment in the labor market will slow down, and the investment market will cool.
On Wednesday, Westpac reported a decline in consumer confidence in the country. The consumer confidence index fell in January by -1.8% (against the forecast of -0.8% and after falling by -1.9% in December).
The Australian dollar continued to decline after the publication of this index at the beginning of today's trading day. A day earlier, the Australian dollar was pressured by information about the outbreak of coronavirus in China.
The Australian economy is expected to create +15,000 new jobs in December, while unemployment remains at 5.2%. Data from the Australian labor market will be released Thursday at 00:30 (GMT). Weak GDP growth, low personal consumption and weak retail sales reinforce expectations of further interest rate cuts at a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 4, which will put downward pressure on AUD.

On Wednesday, AUD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and below the important resistance level of 0.6881 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6828 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.
A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6850. However, the possible growth of AUD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910

 

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EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting
17/01/2020

Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD pair has been trading in a narrow range on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on rates.
At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near 1.1090, below strong short-term resistance levels of 1.1108 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.
At the same time, the ECB leadership today may announce an increase in inflation expectations and reiterate that it is "closely monitoring the potential side effects" of negative interest rates on the economy.
The ECB's decision on rates will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the press conference will begin today at 13:30 (GMT). A sharp increase in volatility is likely to occur during this period of time, especially if unexpected statements regarding the monetary policy of the bank are followed by ECB management. Negative interest rates are likely to continue for some time to come, but the ECB may revise them at some point.
Any statements by the ECB management that may indicate the possibility of moving away from the bank’s extra-soft monetary policy towards tightening it will be regarded by market participants as a signal to resume purchases of the euro, which will also cause the EUR / USD pair to grow.
In this case, after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1115.
The breakdown of the local support level of 1.1064 may provoke a deeper decline in EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Resistance Levels: 1.1108, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900
Buy Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285

 

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NZD/USD: commodity demand falls
24/01/2020

The New Zealand dollar received support today at the beginning of the Asian trading session after the publication of consumer inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in the country in the 4th quarter increased by +1.9% (after rising by +1.5% in the 3rd quarter, with the forecast of +1.8%). The NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, reaching an intraday high near 0.6628.
Meanwhile, commodity prices continue to decline amid the spread of the deadly virus in China.
While the NZD / USD is trading above the key support level of 0.6545 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), its long-term dynamics remains.
A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.6613 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) with the target at the support level of 0.6598 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 0.6428 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a further decline will indicate the resumption of the global downtrend NZD / USD and the relevance of short positions with long-term goals at support levels 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.
On the other hand, a breakdown of local resistance levels of 0.6635, 0.6665 could trigger an alternative growth scenario in the upward channel on the daily chart with targets at resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of the pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
Meanwhile, more active growth of the New Zealand dollar at the moment should not be expected, according to economists. Investors are gearing up for a slowdown in China, the largest consumer of commodities. Rising concerns about declining commodity demand will put pressure on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
Support Levels: 0.6613, 0.6698, 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6640. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200
Buy Stop 0.6640. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865

 

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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
27/01/2020

The number of infected people with coronavirus in China has already exceeded 2,700, and the number of deaths has reached 80. The situation threatens to get out of control, and traders began to take into account the inevitable slowdown in China's GDP growth, which causes a decrease in world stock indexes.
Amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus and rising fears of a slowdown in the global economy, demand for safe haven assets (such as gold, yen) and the dollar are growing again.
At the same time, the euro resumed falling against the dollar at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of disappointing macro data (at 09:00 GMT). According to the IFO, the business climate worsened in Germany in January. The current situation assessment indicator published by the CESifo research group came out with a value of 99.1, which is worse than the forecast of 99.4. The IFO Economic Expectations Index, which serves as an indicator of current conditions and expectations in the German business sector, came out with a value of 92.9, which is worse than the forecast of 95.0 and the previous value of 93.9. The slowdown in Germany's economic growth and the deterioration of sentiment in the country's business circles is a bearish factor for EUR.

EUR / USD continues to trade in the zone below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.1064, 1.1082 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1105 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
However, the growth of EUR / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 1.1150.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).
A breakdown of the local support level of 1.1015 (today's low) may trigger a deeper decline in EUR / USD. Below the key resistance level of 1.1150, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, and a decline to the zone below the support level of 1.1000 speaks in favor of short positions.
Support Levels: 1.1025, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Resistance Levels: 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900
Buy Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285

 

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AUD/USD: commodity currencies are under pressure
28/01/2020

Earlier this week, the AUD / USD broke through the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart and continues to decline, trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 0.6745.
The reluctance of investors to take risks due to the spreading coronavirus in China puts pressure on commodity prices, one of the largest consumers of which is China.
According to Chinese authorities, on Monday the number of people infected with coronavirus exceeded 4,500, and the number of deaths reached 106. Investors take into account slowdown in China's GDP growth due to an outbreak of coronavirus. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is also declining, losing about 4% since the start of the month against the US dollar.
In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
On Wednesday (00:30 GMT) inflation data for Australia for the 4th quarter will be published. Most likely, the data will confirm that core inflation remains below the target level (it is expected that growth in consumer inflation in the 4th quarter was +0.6% and +1.7% in annual terms). If the data turn out to be even weaker than the forecast, then the pressure on the RBA to further soften its policy at the February 4 meeting will intensify. The RBA is also expected to lower forecasts for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2019 and in the 1st quarter of 2020, which will also put pressure on the AUD.
At the same time, the USD is strengthening, including due to the spread of the coronavirus and the fall of world stock indices.
A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6740 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.
In the current situation, only short positions should be considered. You can return to AUD / USD purchases after the pair returns to the ascending channel on the daily chart, the lower border of which passes through the mark of 0.6820.
Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910

 

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GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England
29/01/2020

On the eve of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the pound remains positive, and the GBP / USD pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 1.2835 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The Bank of England will publish the decision on the rate on Thursday at 12:00 (GMT). It is widely expected that the Bank of England will maintain its current monetary policy unchanged. Also, many economists believe that the Bank of England in 2020 will also not change its policy amid a recovery in the UK economy.
Many economists predict an acceleration of UK GDP growth from 1.0% in 2020 to 1.8% in 2021 due to planned fiscal stimulus measures and the expected growth in investment, which will be possible if a trade deal is concluded with the European Union before the end of this year.
On Thursday, it is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). If he nevertheless favors a softer monetary policy, then the pound could drop sharply.
In any case, the volatility in the pound quotes during this period of time can increase sharply.
Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.
The breakdown of support levels 1.2995 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.2955 (January lows) will trigger a further decline in GBP / USD to the key support level of 1.2835.
In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
On Wednesday, investors will be waiting for the publication of the Fed decision on the rate at 19:00 (GMT). The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.75%, which is not to cause a strong reaction from the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2835
Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800
Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510

 

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Brent: price drop is likely to continue
30/01/2020
Current Dynamics

After the price of Brent crude oil soared earlier this month as a result of a sharp increase in tension in the Middle East and reached $71.95 a barrel, a sharp drop in oil prices began later. The driver of the "price hike south" was the spread of coronavirus in China, threatening to go into a pandemic.
The number of cases in China exceeded 6,000, and more than 130 died.
At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $58.60 per barrel. Information from the US Department of Energy put additional pressure on oil quotes. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, Wednesday, crude oil inventories grew by 3.548 million barrels last week (forecast implied an increase of 482,000 barrels).
A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers.
The price of Brent crude oil broke through the key support level of 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.
A breakdown of the support level of 58.50 and a decrease into the area below the support level of 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will mean a break in the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend. In case of further decline, the immediate goal will be the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
There is no convincing evidence that the dynamics of oil prices will change significantly in the near future. A further drop in commodity prices, including oil, is likely.
Only a return to the zone above the resistance level of 63.90 will again make long positions relevant.
Support Levels: 58.50, 56.90, 55.00
Resistance Levels: 60.40, 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 59.50. Take-Profit 56.90, 55.00
Buy Stop 60.50. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

 

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XAU/USD: Coronavirus pushes gold quotes up
31/01/2020

The "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China, signed two weeks ago, eased tensions in trade relations between the two countries and gave a new positive impetus to stock indices. However, other factors may adversely affect economic growth in 2020.
A new negative factor of a global scale again threatens the global economy. This time, investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) have already expressed significant concern about the possibility of the spread of the virus outside of China.
In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is growing. A strong positive momentum remains, pushing gold quotes up. In case of breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1585.00 (April 2013 highs and Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD pair will go towards the upper border of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing near the mark of 1620.00.
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 1569.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), XAU / USD will resume the decline with targets at the support levels of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%), 1456.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A further decline in XAU / USD is unlikely, and, in the current situation, long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1569.00, 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
Resistance Levels: 1585.00, 1600.00, 1620.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1568.00. Stop-Loss 1586.00. Take-Profit 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
Buy Stop 1586.00. Stop-Loss 1568.00. Take-Profit 1600.00, 1620.00

 

TifiaFX

Established member
622 0
AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting
03/02/2020

The threat of coronavirus spreading outside of China, threatening to grow into an epidemic, brought down global stock indices last week. The World Health Organization last Thursday declared an outbreak of coronavirus infection an emergency of international importance. The number of confirmed coronavirus infected in China over the weekend has grown to nearly 15,000, the number of victims is already 305.
Given the size of China's GDP, as well as the possible consequences for other countries, the outbreak of the virus seems to be a significant enough reason for concern about the growth prospects of the world economy for the next few months.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate (the decision on the rate will be published at 03:30 GMT). Probably, the RBA will not yet change its current monetary policy, keeping the rate at a record level of 0.75%. However, this decision will not provide tangible support to the Australian dollar. The risks to Australian economy and the implications for Australian commodity and tourism demand are likely to continue to put pressure on weak growth prospects.
Thus, the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD are likely to remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken and reduce, which will speak in favor of their sales.
At the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6690 mark, 10 points above the intraday low of 0.6680. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 0.6680 and 0.6670 (2019 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
The negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, making short positions on the pair more preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900, 0.6935

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6675. Stop-Loss 0.6730. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6730. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900

 

TifiaFX

Established member
622 0
NZD/USD: growth of quotations of commodity currencies may resume
04/02/2020

From October to December last year, the NZD / USD pair was in the upward correction period and reached an almost 8-month high near the 0.6755 mark at the end of December.
However, then NZD / USD fell sharply amid the spread of coronavirus in China threatening to slow down the global economy. The decrease in NZD / USD in January amounted to almost 4%.
Despite some easing of investors' concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a resurgent rise in stock indices, commodity currencies, including NZD, are still under pressure.
On Tuesday, NZD / USD makes an attempt to break the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart passing through the mark of 0.6465.
Negative dynamics still prevail, and technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).
Today, the volatility in the NZD / USD pair may again increase when data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) will be published after 15:00 (GMT). The Dairy Price Index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out two weeks ago with a value of +1.7%. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of foreign currency export earnings. Forecast for today: the Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products will come out with a value of +0.9%, which is likely to also support the New Zealand dollar.
In this case, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6485 will be the first signal to resume long positions in the NZD / USD pair. A breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.6540 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global pair decline wave with level 0.8820).
Investor concerns about coronavirus eased somewhat earlier this week, creating a favorable backdrop for renewed growth in global stock indices and commodity prices, as well as commodity currency quotes.
Support Levels: 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6440. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6440. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

 
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