Tifia Daily Market Analytics

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S&P500: positive dynamics of indices
12/13/2019

In the financial markets, optimistic moods are reviving again, associated with increased expectations of a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China.
The White House suggested lowering duties on Chinese goods worth about $ 360 billion, as well as repealing the introduction of duties on goods worth $ 156 billion, which was scheduled for Sunday.
If China meets this proposal, then, in accordance with the agreement, China must commit itself in 2020 to buy US agricultural products by $50 billion, as well as energy and other goods.
As expected, on Friday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Ambassador Tsui Tiankai will sign a draft agreement.
“We are very close to a big trade agreement with China. They want this, and so do we”, Trump tweeted.
This news and the high likelihood of a halt in the US-China trade war, as well as the Fed's announcement of its intention to adhere to the current monetary policy (amid low inflation, favorable labor market conditions and price stability) contribute to the growth of world and US stock indices.
At the beginning of today's European session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading at 28250.0, the NASDAQ100 at 8508.0, the S&P 500 near the new absolute maximum and 3182.0 mark, 36 pips above the opening price at the beginning of the week.
The S&P500 index maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support levels of 2962.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2982.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0).
Above the support levels 3139.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3100.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) purchases look safe. Long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 3157.0, 3139.0, 3110.0, 3100.0, 3072.0, 3028.0, 2982.0, 2962.0
Resistance Levels: 3182.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 3137.0. Stop-Loss 3158.0. Goals 3110.0, 3100.0, 3072.0, 3028.0, 2982.0, 2962.0
Buy Stop 3183.0. Stop-Loss 3156.0. Goals 3200.0, 3250.0

 

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GBP/USD: Conservatives won
12/16/2019

Last Friday, when it became known about the victory of the Conservative Party in parliamentary elections in the UK, the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to spend billions of pounds and improve the situation in the economy. However, quickly and seriously improve the situation after 3 years of disagreements regarding Brexit, it is unlikely to succeed.
Many economists believe the UK economy in 2019 is likely to show the weakest growth since the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. GDP growth is likely to be limited to 1.3%. This is the slowest pace since 2009 compared to 1.4% in 2018.
In 2020, it is expected that GDP growth will also remain rather sluggish, no higher than 1.5%, and inflation will remain below the target level of 2%.
This week there will be data on inflation, the labor market, GDP, the current account of the balance of payments. However, the focus of investors will be focused on the meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy, which will be held on Thursday.
It is likely that the Bank of England at this meeting, the last in 2019, will maintain its current monetary policy unchanged, but may signal a tendency towards a softer policy. If the Bank of England does indicate the likelihood of a rate cut in 2020, then the pound may again come under pressure, now from a softer monetary policy. As you know, when the interest rate is lowered, the national currency is usually under pressure due to its relative cheapening against other currencies, in particular the dollar.
Today at 17:00 (GMT) the Bank of England will present the reports of the Financial Policy Committee with a detailed analysis of the country's financial system. The harsh tone of the report regarding the prospects for the financial sector is a positive factor for GBP. Conversely, the soft tone of the Bank's Committee report demonstrates concern about financial stability, which will negatively affect GBP.
Over the past 4 months, the GBP / USD pair has grown by about 10%, and reached a key resistance level of 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Despite a strong positive impulse, it will not be easy for the GBP / USD pair to overcome two resistance levels (1.3340 and 1.3430). The most likely rebound in the zone of these resistance levels and a return to the global downtrend.
The first signal for the resumption of GBP / USD sales will be a breakdown of the support level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to reduce the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). A short-term level of EMA200 support on the 1-hour chart also passes through this mark.
The return of GBP / USD to the zone below the support level of 1.2745 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will indicate the resumption of the bearish trend.
An alternative scenario for continued growth will be associated with the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3510 with targets at resistance levels 1.3960 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs in January and April 2018), 1.4580 (Fibonacci level 50%).
Support Levels: 1.3340, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2745
Resistance Levels: 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3190. Stop-Loss 1.3260. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2665, 1.2620, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190


 

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AUD/USD: RBA is ready to lower rates
12/17/2019

The AUD / USD pair broke on Tuesday an important short-term support level of 0.6860 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and is developing a downward movement, returning to the global down-trend.
Following a meeting in December, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%.
Concerns about a sharp slowdown in global economic growth have become one of the main reasons that prompted the RBA to lower interest rates this year. According to the text of the minutes of the meeting of the RBA held on December 3, which were published earlier on Tuesday, the bank's management in February intends to reassess the prospects of monetary policy.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe spoke about the "emerging turning point" in the economy. However, the published RBA protocols indicated that the bank was ready to lower rates again if necessary.
Weak GDP growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters, remaining low personal consumption and weak retail sales reinforce expectations of a further reduction in interest rates at a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 4. This will put downward pressure on AUD.
AUD / USD is trading below important resistance levels 0.6912 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.6869 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6802 and a further decrease, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600.
Below resistance level 0.6860, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 0.6833, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6860, 0.6869, 0.6912, 0.6938

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6833, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6870. Stop-Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6910

 

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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
12/18/2019

After the release of weak data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) and amid the strengthening of the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair fell. The Dairy Price Index prepared by Global Dairy Trade came out last Tuesday with a value of -5.1% (against the forecast of +0.5% and after a decrease of -0.5% in the previous 2-week period).
News of the achievement of an intermediate trade deal between the US and China contributed to the growth of world stock indices and commodity quotes at the beginning of the week.
US economic data has also recently eased concerns about a sharp slowdown in global economic growth.
At the same time, many investors in the commodity market are cautious because of the abundant supply and continuing risks of an unsuccessful outcome of the upcoming trade negotiations between the US and China. All details of the interim agreement, which has not yet been officially translated and has not been signed, are not yet clear.
Some participants in the foreign exchange market consider the current growth in commodity currencies excessive in the framework of the global downtrend, and the closure of long positions may strengthen the rally in the coming days. In particular, this applies to the New Zealand dollar.
So far, the NZD / USD pair remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channel on the daily chart above the important support level of 0.6519 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
A breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6575 can be a signal for continued purchases and an increase in NZD / USD towards the local maximum of 0.6635 and the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart and further to the key resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
An alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 0.6565 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart), which can trigger a decline to the support level of 0.6519 and further to the support level of 0.6485 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА144 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). A further decline will indicate a resumption of the NZD / USD global downtrend.
Support Levels: 0.6565, 0.6555, 0.6519, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6575, 0.6635, 0.6770, 0.6865

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6550. Stop-Loss 0.6585. Take-Profit 0.6519, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6585. Stop-Loss 0.6550. Take-Profit 0.6635, 0.6770, 0.6865


 

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GBP/USD: Bank of England rate decision
12/19/2019

Today at 12:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate will be published. Due to the importance of today's event, a sharp increase in volatility is expected at this time in the foreign exchange market, especially in pound quotes.
GBP / USD broke through an important support level of 1.3210 on Tuesday (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) and a short-term support level of EMA200 on the 1-hour chart.
In case of further decline, the immediate goal will be the support level of 1.3010 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The Bank of England is expected to maintain its monetary policy today unchanged. However, it may signal the possibility of lowering the key interest rate in the coming months.
Inflation remains weak, well below the target level of 2%, and the fiscal stimulus measures promised by the UK government aimed at ensuring robust economic growth are unlikely to be implemented soon.
Media reports that conservatives rule out a transitional extension for Brexit could hurt the recovery of investment after the election and increase the risk of a tough Brexit.
In addition, the threat of a new referendum on Scottish independence is growing.
Given all these negative factors, the Bank of England may be forced to soften its monetary policy in the coming months.

The return of GBP / USD to the zone below the support level of 1.2750 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will indicate the resumption of the bearish trend. In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2750, the aim of lowering for the next 3-4 months will be the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%).
A signal for the implementation of an alternative scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.3210.
Support Levels: 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2750
Resistance Levels: 1.3172, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3190. Stop-Loss 1.3260. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2665, 1.2620, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

 

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USD/CAD: so far, correction after the fall
12/20/2019

After a many-day decline, the USD / CAD pair entered the correctional phase on Thursday. The weakening Canadian dollar was contributed by the disappointing macro statistics on wholesale trade and supplies to the manufacturing sector of the Canadian economy.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics Canada, the volume of wholesale trade in October fell sharply (-1.1%). The data for the previous month were revised downward, to +0.8% versus +1.0% earlier.
At the same time, supplies in the manufacturing sector in October fell for the second month in a row (-0.7%) after falling in September by -0.2%.
The Canadian dollar reacted negatively to the publication of the data.
The Canadian dollar still maintains a positive trend against the US dollar. However, a number of negative macro data from Canada this week could stop the fall of the USD / CAD pair. If positive news about the state of the US economy comes from the US, then the growth of the USD and the pair USD / CAD will resume.
Today at 13:30 (GMT) Statistics Canada will publish the retail sales index, which is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near future. Index growth is usually a positive factor for CAD; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect CAD.
If data for October is weaker than the previous value (-0.1%) or forecast (+0.5%), then CAD may drop sharply, given the release of weak macro data on wholesale trade and supplies in Canada’s manufacturing sector earlier this week.
Thus, at 13:30 (GMT) an increase in volatility is expected in the USD and CAD quotes, and, accordingly, in the USD / CAD pair.
In the last 2 days, the USD / CAD pair has been rising after a strong fall before. Breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.3165 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions. Above the key resistance level of 1.3230 (EMA144 and EMA200 on the daily chart), long positions will again be preferred.
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support levels 1.3140 and 1.3345, and the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart, passing near the mark 1.3100, and of further decline, USD / CAD will go to support levels 1.3042, 1.3015, corresponding to annual minimums. A decline into the zone below the support level of 1.2920 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will indicate a break in the bullish trend of USD / CAD.
Support Levels: 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
Resistance Levels: 1.3140, 1.3165, 1.3205, 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3435

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3115. Stop-Loss 1.3150. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015
Buy Stop 1.3150. Stop-Loss 1.3115. Take-Profit 1.3165, 1.3205, 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3435

 

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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
12/23/2019

After the publication of data on US GDP last Friday, according to which in the 3rd quarter annual growth amounted to 2.1%, and data on personal income / expenses of the Americans, the dollar strengthened and gold futures declined.
According to the US Department of Commerce, personal consumption expenditures (household expenses) in November increased by 0.4% compared with October. At the same time, personal income of Americans over this period increased by 0.5%. Expenditure on durable goods increased by 1%. Rising wages and lowering unemployment to 50-year lows stimulated consumer spending this year, which in turn supported the US economy.
Gold prices are under pressure from the stabilization of the US economy and amid progress in the course of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.
And yet, the dollar still can not develop upward momentum at a faster pace, and at the beginning of the new week, the DXY dollar index is falling. Washington and Beijing are expected to sign an interim trade agreement (of “first phase”) in January, but the uncertainty about the details of the deal adds uncertainty to the ranks of buyers of risky assets and supports safe haven assets.
U.S. political uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s impeachment, which was announced by the House of Representatives on Wednesday, also boosts gold prices at the start of a new Christmas week.
The pair XAU / USD is trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 1484.00, which corresponds to 6-week highs.
Above the support levels of 1450.00, 1428.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains. A break into the zone above the resistance level of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00) will resume the bullish trend XAU / USD.
In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1475.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) will be a signal for XAU / USD sales with targets at the support levels of 1450.00, 1428.00.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of a block of macro data from the United States, including data on orders for capital goods for November. The indicator reflects the value of orders received by manufacturers of capital goods, implying large investments. Forecast for November: -0.3%. The dollar is likely to decline after the publication of data. Data better than forecast will strengthen the dollar in the short term.
Support Levels: 1475.00, 1450.00, 1428.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1484.00, 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1469.00. Stop-Loss 1487.00. Take-Profit 1450.00, 1428.00
Buy Stop 1487.00. Stop-Loss 1469.00. Take-Profit 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

 

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S&P500: positive dynamics continues
12/24/2019

Major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 finished trading last Monday at historic highs.
After futures for US stock indexes continued on Monday the recent series of growth, today they are trading in a very narrow range: S&P 500 - near 3225.0, Nasdaq100 - near 8702.0, DJIA - near 28570.0.
The S&P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 2978.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3018.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and 2335.0).
Probably, after the breakdown of the local resistance level 3229.0, the S&P500 will continue to grow.
In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of support levels 3193.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3135.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) S&P500 will go to support levels 3018.0, 2978.0. Long positions are preferred so far.
Trading volume on European and American stock markets today will be small. Most exchanges are either closed or shut down early on the eve of the holiday. Market volatility will return on December 26 - 27, and will fully recover after the New Year holidays.
Support Levels: 3193.0, 3157.0, 3135.0, 3100.0, 3018.0, 2978.0
Resistance Levels: 3229.0

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 3190.0. Stop-Loss 3131.0. Goals 3157.0, 3135.0, 3100.0, 3018.0
Buy Stop 3131.0. Stop-Loss 3190.0. Goals 3200.0, 3250.0

 

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DJIA: rally may continue in the new year
12/26/2019

The US stock market is dominated by positive dynamics. US stock indexes end the year with the best results in the last 6 years. The S&P 500 gained almost 29% this year, DJIA - 24%, moreover, shares rose in almost all sectors.
Investors are also mostly optimistic about the prospects for the stock market in 2020.
In Europe and some other countries continue to celebrate Christmas. Trading volumes are likely to recover after January 6th.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty about the details of the deal between the US and China is fueling some uncertainty among investors. At the same time, the exact form of future trade relations between the UK and the EU is unclear. In addition, the risk of another Scottish independence referendum is growing.
Expectations of further growth in stock indices speak in favor of DJIA purchases.
In an alternative scenario, after the breakdown of the short-term support level of 28330.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and in case of resumption of decline, the targets will be support levels 27950.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26800.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart )
The breakdown of support level 26800.0 may provoke a further decrease to support levels 25500.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from the level of 15500.0), 25270.0 (August lows), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).
Stronger decline in the DJIA will require convincing evidence of a slowdown in the US economy and a worsening trade conflict between the US and China.
In the meantime, there is the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
Support Levels: 28330.0, 27950.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26800.0, 25550.0
Resistance Levels: 28585.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 28650.0. Stop-Loss 28300.0. Take-Profit 29000.0, 30000.0
Sell Stop 28300.0. Stop-Loss 28650.0. Take-Profit 27950.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26800.0, 25550.0


 

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Brent: Strong positive momentum
12/27/2019

A strong positive momentum of a fundamental nature, observed on world stock markets and the oil market, is pushing prices to new 3-month highs.
The price broke through at the beginning of the month the key resistance level 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60) and continues to develop upward trend in side of the local maximum 69.70.
In the case of a breakthrough of this resistance level, the next growth target will be the resistance level 72.60 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
The positive mood of investors is fueled by hopes that the US and China will reach an agreement of the "first phase" in January. Earlier this month, OPEC and other oil producing countries, including Russia, agreed on an additional cumulative cap on production of 500,000 barrels per day in order to reduce global supply.
Following the results of three meetings, the Fed lowered interest rates this year, and in October the range of key interest rates was 1.5% - 1.75%. At the same time, in December, Fed leaders said that monetary policy was likely to remain unchanged in the next 2020.
The stock market euphoria, despite the political instability in some regions of the world, also contributes to the growth of oil prices.
Thus, a favorable external background is forming for the possibility of further growth in the oil market.
In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 66.40 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support levels 63.90, 63.00 will mean the resumption of the global downtrend with support at the levels of 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
From the news today, we are waiting for the publication by the US Department of Energy at 15:30 (GMT) weekly data on stocks of oil and petroleum products. According to the forecast, it is expected that they decreased by 1.724 million barrels last week. When confirmed, oil is likely to continue to rise in price. Also, today (at 18:00 GMT) the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will be published. If the report indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs, this may give an additional positive impetus to prices.
Support Levels: 67.50, 66.40, 64.50, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Resistance Levels: 68.00, 69.70, 72.60

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 67.40. Stop-Loss 68.20. Take-Profit 66.40, 64.50, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 67.40. Take-Profit 69.70, 71.00, 72.00, 72.60

 

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DJIA: investor optimism pushes indices up
12/30/2019

Positive dynamics prevail in the global stock market. The main factor contributing to the growth of indices in recent days is both the traditional New Year rally and the expectation of the signing of the first part of the US-China trade agreement in January. If this happens, it should give the world economy an impetus for growth. Nevertheless, there remains a lot of ambiguity regarding the future prospects of trade relations between the two countries, whose total GDP is about 35% of total world GDP. The details of the agreement were not disclosed, so it remains unclear what will happen if the parties fail to resolve the remaining contradictions.
Investors are also mostly optimistic about the prospects for the stock market in 2020. Expectations of further growth in stock indices speak in favor of DJIA purchases.
In an alternative scenario, after the breakdown of the short-term support level
28450.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and in case of further decrease in DJIA, the targets will be the support levels 28030.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26850.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of support level 26800.0 may provoke a further decline to support levels 25600.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 25270.0 (August lows), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).
Stronger decline in the DJIA will require convincing evidence of a slowdown in the US economy and a worsening trade conflict between the US and China.
In the meantime, there is the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
Support Levels: 28450.0, 28030.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26850.0, 25600.0
Resistance Levels: 28730.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 28750.0. Stop-Loss 28430.0. Take-Profit 29000.0, 30000.0
Sell Stop 28430.0. Stop-Loss 28750.0. Take-Profit 28030.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 26850.0

 

TifiaFX

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USD/CAD: US dollar resumed growth
09/01/2020
Current Dynamics

Against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair broke through the key support level 1.3205 (EMA144 and EMA200 on the daily chart) last month and reached 1.2957 in early January. Further decline and breakdown of the long-term support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) would mean breaking the bullish trend of USD / CAD.
Nevertheless, there was no further decrease in USD / CAD and today the pair has been growing for the third day in a row.
The pair’s growth is facilitated by both the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in oil prices that followed after their significant increase on the eve amid a sharp aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As you know, on Tuesday night, Iran launched a missile attack on US military bases in Iraq.
However, as follows from the statements of the White House, none of the US military was injured.
In turn, the Iranian Foreign Minister tweeted that the missile attacks were not intended to escalate the conflict or start a war.
The words of US President Trump that "everything is fine", and Iran, it seems, does not intend to continue the conflict, reassured investors, which helped to renew the rally of US stock indices and the USD.
USD / CAD broke through the short-term resistance level 1.3027 on Wednesday (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), which was the first signal to resume long positions, and is trading on Thursday near the local resistance level 1.3050 (October lows).
If the growth continues, USD / CAD will go to the resistance level 1.3120 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3205.
The December report of the US Ministry of Labor will be published on Friday. Economists expect jobs to reach +160,000, while unemployment remains at 3.5%, as in November.
Also, on Friday at the same time (at 13:30 GMT) will be published data from the Canadian labor market. In December, Canada's unemployment rate is expected to be 5.8%. This is slightly better than the November figure, but still worse than the average for 2019 (about 5.6% - 5.7%). Growth in unemployment is a negative factor for the national currency. If the data turn out to be worse than the forecast of 5.8%, then the Canadian dollar will drop sharply, and the growth of USD / CAD will continue.
In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3027 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions will again become relevant.
Nevertheless, in this period of time (13:30 GMT) on Friday, a sharp increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected, and above all - in the pair USD / CAD.
From the news today it is worth paying attention to the speech at 19:00 (GMT) of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz. If in his speech today he touches on the topic of monetary policy, the volatility of Canadian dollar quotes will increase. If Stephen Poloz speaks out in favor of the need for a softer monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, then the weakening of the Canadian dollar and the growth of USD / CAD will accelerate.
Support Levels: 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3205, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3065. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930
Buy Stop 1.3065. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3205, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452


 

TifiaFX

Established member
575 0
Brent: prices fell sharply after rising
earlier
10/01/2020
Current Dynamics

Dollar growth continues on Friday. The DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose another 0.18% to 97.25, 10 points above today's open price. Most likely, the dollar will also end this week on a positive note, if data from the US labor market will meet the expectations of market participants. The publication of this data is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT), and economists expect that in December the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector of the American economy increased by +160,000, while unemployment remained at 3.5%, as In November.
A report by the ADP Research Institute on the change in the number of employees published on Wednesday indicated an increase in jobs in the private sector of the US economy by 202,000 in December (the forecast was +160,000). November ADP data on jobs were revised up to +124,000, while earlier it was reported an increase of 67,000. These are very positive data indicating the stability of the US labor market.
Meanwhile, oil prices continue to decline on Friday, both against the backdrop of a stronger dollar and after statements by US President Donald Trump, which eased investors' concerns about escalating the conflict in the Middle East region.
As the degree of tension in the Middle East declined, the price also began to decline. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading near the short-term support level of 66.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Nevertheless, above the support levels of 64.30 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the October 2018 highs near the level of $86.60 per barrel), long-term positive dynamics Brent oil prices remain.
Therefore, a decrease to the support level of 66.00 provides a good opportunity to build up long positions.
In the case of a breakthrough of the local maximum of 69.70, recorded in September after the drone attack on large oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the next growth target will be the resistance level of 72.60 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
In an alternative scenario, the signal for resumption of sales will be a breakdown of support levels 66.00, 65.10 (EMA50 on the daily chart) with targets at support levels 64.30, 63.90, 63.00. The breakdown of these support levels will mean breaking the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend with support at 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
From the news today regarding oil prices, it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States grew over the past month by just 2 rigs, to 670 units from 668 units 4 weeks ago. However, this is much less than the number of active drilling rigs at the beginning of June (800 units) and at the beginning of September (742 units). If a Baker Hughes report indicates a decline in the number of active rigs, it could also support oil prices.
Support Levels: 66.00, 65.10, 64.30, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Resistance Levels: 66.65, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 64.90. Stop-Loss 66.70. Take-Profit 64.30, 63.90, 63.00, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90
Buy Stop 66.70. Stop-Loss 64.90. Take-Profit 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60


 

TifiaFX

Established member
575 0
GBP/USD: the pair still has positive dynamics
Current dynamics
13/01/2020

Pound and GBP / USD are falling at the beginning of the new week. Last Thursday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said the Monetary Policy Committee was ready to take action if the weakness of the economy continued. At the same time, member of the committee, Sylvanas Tenreiro, said on Friday that further stimulation of the British economy is possible in the "coming months". Another member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Gertyan Wlige, also spoke in the same tone in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, saying he would vote in January to lower interest rates if there are no signs of an improvement in the economy.
Following the publication of fresh UK macro data at the beginning of today's European session, the pound accelerated its decline. According to the data presented, production in the UK manufacturing sector decreased by -1.7% in November (-2% in annual terms with a forecast of -1.7%), and overall industrial production decreased by -1.2% in November ( -1.6% in annual terms). The data turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts of economists.
Data continues to show the extremely negative impact of the Brexit process on the British economy.
After the publication of macro data, the GBP / USD pair fell to 1.2970, which is 88 points below the closing price last Friday. If GBP / USD continues to decline, the goals will be the support levels of 1.2910 (December lows), 1.2800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
So far (and above the key support level of 1.2800), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains. The return of GBP / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will indicate the restoration of positive dynamics. In this case, the growth will continue towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD reduce in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3510 will mark targets at resistance levels of 1.3960 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs of January and April 2018), 1.4580 (Fibonacci level of 50%). Growth above the level of 1.4580 will mean the final break of the bearish trend.
At the same time, the dollar is likely to retain its position in the current conditions. Investors are now excitedly waiting for the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China on January 15. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. Such a development of events is also likely to help maintain demand for US assets and the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2800
Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3050, 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800
Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

 

TifiaFX

Established member
575 0
S&P 500: need new drivers to continue the rally
14/01/2020

The risks of escalating the conflict between the US and Iran have declined. Investors are waiting for the signing of the “first phase” of a trade agreement between the US and China on Wednesday. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. The strongest negative factor and risks holding back the growth of the global economy seem to be starting to decline.
At the same time, it should be noted that the signing of this trade agreement is already mainly taken into account in prices. Therefore, to continue the rally in the stock market, additional drivers are needed.
On Tuesday, the volatility of the dollar and US stock indexes may rise at 13:30 (GMT), when the latest data on consumer inflation in the US will be published. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which is a key indicator for measuring inflation and changing consumer preferences, is expected to increase +0.2% in December (as it did in the previous two months). If the data for December is weaker than the forecast, then the dollar will most likely respond with a short-term, but strong decline, and stock indices are likely to rise.
According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor published on Friday, private sector wages rose 2.9% in December compared with the same period last year. This is the weakest growth since July 2018, which, according to investors, does not raise concerns about rising inflation. So, the Fed will not raise interest rates to curb inflation. This is a positive fact for buyers in the stock market.
The S&P 500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3010.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3068.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). Long positions are preferred.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 3255.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the correctional decline of S&P 500 can continue to the support levels 3196.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 3168.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). However, only a breakdown of support levels of 3010.0 and 2926.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will increase the risks of the bullish trend S&P 500 breaking.
Support Levels: 3255.0, 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0
Resistance Levels: 3294.0, 3300.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 3254.0. Stop-Loss 3296.0. Goals 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0
Buy Stop 3296.0. Stop-Loss 3254.0. Goals 3300.0, 3350.0, 3400.0

 

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