Tifia Daily Market Analytics

TifiaFX

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XAU/USD: Trading Scenarios
11/01/2019

The dollar is falling again, and gold is rising in price after the Fed meeting this week. As you know, the Fed again lowered the rate, for the third time this year, to the level of 1.75%, although it did not give clear signals aimed at further easing monetary policy.
Market participants were also encouraged by the expectations of an early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. At the same time, investors fear that it may take longer than expected to conclude a trade agreement between the two countries that have the largest economies in the world, and disappointing macro data continues to come from various parts of the world with the world's largest economies.
Today, market participants will focus on publishing data from the US labor market at 12:30 (GMT). US jobs are expected to grow by 89,000 in October, after rising 136,000 in September and 130,000 in August. If the US Department of Labor reports a significant increase in the number of jobs in October, observer concern about the possible impact of a slowdown in global economy for the US could weaken. However, if the report on the labor market coincides with the forecast or is worse than it, then this will further strengthen investors' doubts about the stability of the American economy in the context of international trade conflicts.
This will be another reason for avoiding risks and buying protective assets, including gold.
At the beginning of the European session on Friday, XAU / USD is trading above the important short-term support level of 1498.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart) and above the support level at 1485.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and mark 1920.00).
The XAU / USD maintains long-term positive dynamics, and the fundamental background creates the prerequisites for maintaining demand for gold and further growth of XAU / USD towards long-term and absolute highs near the level of 1920.00 dollars per ounce.
In an alternative scenario, the signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support levels of 1498.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart), 1485.00 (Fibonacci level of 50% of the correction to the decline wave from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00).
In this case, a decline of the XAU / USD to support levels of 1408.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1380.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% and highs of 2016), 1368.00 (highs of 2018) is possible.
Nevertheless, a positive impulse and a tendency to further growth of XAU / USD prevail so far. Above the support levels of 1498.00, 1485.00, long positions are preferred.
It is also worth recalling again that today at 12:30 (GMT) a sharp increase in volatility is expected, especially if the data on the US labor market will significantly differ from the forecast values. Probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market during this period of time.
Support levels: 1498.00, 1485.00, 1474.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1408.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1473.00. Stop-Loss 1522.00. Take-Profit 1452.00, 1440.00, 1408.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
Buy Stop 1522.00. Stop-Loss 1473.00. Take-Profit 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00, 1600.00

 

TifiaFX

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AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
11/04/2019

Positive news about the US-China trade negotiations supported the Australian currency. The United States and China are Australia's largest trade and economic partners, and a positive shift in trade relations between the two countries has a positive effect on the mood of consumers and investors in the Australian economy.
Meanwhile, a trade agreement could face an insurmountable obstacle. The US is demanding China’s commitment to buy US $ 50 billion worth of agricultural products be included in the trade agreement, which could be an obstacle to reaching that agreement. This is 2 times more than China bought before the conflict began. Purchases of this scale will far exceed the real needs of China and lead to a significant surplus in the domestic market, economists say.
Another breakdown of the agreement between these countries could negatively affect both the world and Australian economies.
On Tuesday (03:30 GMT), the decision on the rate will be made by the RB of Australia. In October, the RBA made the 3rd rate cut this year, bringing it to 0.75%.
At the same time, the RBA leadership does not exclude the possibility of further easing of monetary policy.
If tomorrow the RBA will lower the rate or directly declare such a reduction before the end of the year, then the Australian dollar runs the risk of falling under active sales.
Also, in the dynamics of AUD, much will depend on the rhetoric of the accompanying RBA statement, which will also be published on Tuesday (at 03:30 GMT).

At the beginning of the European session on Monday, AUD / USD is trading near 0.6910, remaining in a long-term downtrend, below the key resistance level of 0.6940 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6870 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be the first signal to resume sales of AUD / USD.
In this case, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The immediate target is located at support levels of 0.6830 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.6820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
In an alternative scenario, the correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance level of 0.6940.
Support Levels: 0.6890, 0.6870, 0.6830, 0.6820, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6940

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market, Sell Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6950. 0.6830, 0.6820, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

 

TifiaFX

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DJIA: trade negotiations support buyers
11/05/2019

In the middle of last month, DJIA again approached the level of absolute and annual highs near the level of 27400.0. However, for the breakdown of this level of resistance, the positive impulse was not enough and the DJIA fell again.
Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices. Conversely, a warming or easing in trade disputes between the US and China will support stock indices.
So, a new portion of positive information about the course of trade negotiations, which arrived at the beginning of this week, gave new strength to the bulls in the US stock market.
As Myron Brilliant, Executive Vice President of the US Chamber of Commerce, said last Monday, "the parties have really come close to an agreement". There is also information that representatives of the United States and China are actively considering the abolition of some duties. Moreover, it is expected that the US-China trade agreement of the "first phase" will be signed in November.
The Fed’s propensity to maintain soft policy, as well as the revival of economic activity in the US, which is signaled by exceeding expectations GDP data for the 3rd quarter and the improvement of the US labor market in October, according to data presented last week, are also of positive importance for American stock indices.
Last Monday, the DJIA price broke through the resistance level of 27400.0 and rushed up, maintaining a positive trend, which speaks in favor of DJIA purchases.
In an alternative scenario, after the breakdown of the short-term support level of 27150.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and in case of resumption of decline, the targets will be support levels 26460.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26260.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Above these support levels, there is the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 15:00 GMT) of the index of business activity (ISM) in the US services sector, which assesses the state of the services sector in the economy.
The growth rate and the result above 50 are considered as a positive factor for US stock indices. At the same time, a relative decrease in the indicator or data worse than the forecast may have a short-term negative impact on the US indices. Forecast: 53.4 in October (against 52.6 in September).
Support Levels: 27400.0, 27150.0, 26900.0, 26700.0, 26460.0, 26260.0, 25270.0, 24600.0
Resistance Levels: 27600.0, 28000.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 27610.0. Stop-Loss 27350.0. Take-Profit 28000.0
Sell Stop 27350.0. Stop-Loss 27610.0. Take-Profit 27150.0, 26900.0, 26700.0, 26460.0, 26260.0

 

TifiaFX

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GBP/USD: the pair is trading in a range before the meeting of the Bank of England
11/11/2019

The strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP / USD pair has stopped. Last month, amid the strengthening of the pound and the weakening dollar, the GBP / USD rose significantly, rising to the level of 1.3012, which corresponds to a 5-month high.
The pound strengthened amid expectations of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU in connection with the country's exit from the block. Nevertheless, uncertainty about Brexit after the date postponement to January 31 remains, although the risk of a “hard” Brexit has decreased.
On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Bank of England will be devoted to monetary policy issues. Probably, the Bank of England will not make changes to the current policy before the parliamentary elections scheduled for December 12th.
The decision on the rate will be published on Thursday at 12:00 (GMT), and at 12:30 the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney will give a speech explaining the decision made by the bank and his vision of the prospects for the British economy.
It is likely that neither the meeting of the Bank of England nor the speech of Mark Carney will make a significant change in the dynamics of the pound on the eve of the elections scheduled for December 12. The results of public opinion polls will be more important for the pound than the meeting and decisions of the bank and economic data.
Meanwhile, quite positive macro data comes from the USA, including labor market data published last week. The US unemployment rate in September dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level for 50 years. Despite the slowdown, the labor market remains strong, reflecting the steady state of the US economy. The decision of the Fed leaders to lower the rate in October and their signals of intention not to change the current monetary policy so far have faded into the background. Positive macro statistics from the United States and investor propensity to buy US stock market assets will support the dollar.
Despite significant correctional growth, GBP / USD is in a global downtrend, remaining traded in the zone below key resistance levels of 1.3100 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave that started in July 2014, near the level of 1.7200), 1.3370 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
In a negative scenario, the return of GBP / USD to the zone below the support level of 1.2665 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will indicate a resumption of the bearish trend.
The first signal to resume sales will be a breakdown of the local support level of 1.2800.
In the case of the resumption of the bear trend, the long-term target of the decline will be the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%).
To break the global bearish trend, GBP / USD should grow into a zone above the resistance levels 1.3210, 1.3370.
Until December 12, when the British parliamentary elections will be held, GBP / USD will probably remain in the current range between 1.3000 and 1.2800, near the support level of 1.2885 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.2885, 1.2800, 1.2685, 1.2665, 1.2600, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.2785. Stop-Loss 1.2915. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2685, 1.2665, 1.2600, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3015. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370

 

TifiaFX

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XAU / USD: demand for protective assets decreased
11/07/2019

According to reports from the Ministry of Commerce of China at the beginning of today's European session, China and the United States have made significant headway towards a trade agreement by agreeing to abolish existing reciprocal duties. If the trade agreement of the first phase is signed, the duties will be canceled at the same time and in equal amounts. "The trade war began with an increase in duties and should end with the abolition of duties", said Gao Feng, a ministry spokesman, adding that "the time and place of signing the agreement has not yet been determined".
This news caused a sharp increase in global stock indices and a drop in the quotes of gold and US government bonds. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds rose to 1.858%, compared to 1.814% at the beginning of today, and gold fell in price to 1482.00 dollars per ounce.
Earlier this week, XAU / USD broke through the important short-term support level of 1497.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart) and at the beginning of the European session on Thursday trying to gain a foothold in the zone below the support level of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00).
Despite the decline, XAU / USD maintains a long-term positive trend. Returning to the zone above the resistance level of 1497.00 will resume the bullish trend.
In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local support level of 1474.00 (the bottom line of the range between the levels of 1474.00 and 1520.00), XAU / USD will go to support levels of 1440.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1410.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of support levels of 1380.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% and highs of 2016), 1368.00 (highs of 2018) can cancel the bullish trend XAU / USD.
Nevertheless, talking about breaking the bullish trend of gold is still premature. The tendency of world central banks to soft monetary policy, the upcoming British parliamentary elections on December 12, political instability in some EU countries, as well as a weakening dollar are important factors supporting demand on defensive assets, including gold.
Support Levels: 1484.00, 1474.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1410.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1473.00. Stop-Loss 1498.00. Take-Profit 1452.00, 1440.00, 1410.00, 1380.00, 1368.00
Buy Stop 1498.00. Stop-Loss 1473.00. Take-Profit 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00, 1600.00

 

TifiaFX

Established member
530 0
WTI Oil: upward correction is near completion
11/08/2019
Current Dynamics

Despite a report by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, which pointed to a significant increase in US oil reserves (+7.929 million barrels) last week, oil prices rose.
The increase in prices was accompanied by an increase in the global and American stock markets.
All three major US stock indexes hit record highs this week thanks to a robust US labor market, hopes for a US-China trade dispute resolving and a successful corporate reporting season.
WTI oil prices rose this week to $ 57.80 per barrel (against $ 54.06 per barrel at the beginning of the month).
Nevertheless, the optimism of investors is gradually dying away, and we again see a decline in oil prices.
At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 56.10.
Despite verbal agreements that gave hope for a postponement of the introduction of new duties, and a statement by Chinese representatives about their readiness to remove all available duties, trade disagreements between the United States and China remain. The United States has not yet responded to a statement by the Chinese side about the readiness to remove all duties. The ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington could again lead to lower oil demand.
On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 691 units at the moment (from 800 units at the beginning of June and 742 units at the beginning of September). If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
Nevertheless, talking about breaking the bearish trend of oil is still premature.
The breakdown of the next important support level of 55.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart, Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15) will increase the pressure on the price towards its further reduction with a long-term goal at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).
In the case of the resumption of positive dynamics in world stock indices and growth in the oil market, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 57.80 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the resistance level of 60.90 (July highs) and further to the levels of 63.50, 64.40.
In the meantime, a negative impulse prevails below the resistance level of 57.00; short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 55.40, 54.00, 53.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 57.00, 57.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 55.90. Stop-Loss 56.70. Take-Profit 55.40, 54.00, 53.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 56.70. Stop-Loss 55.90. Take-Profit 57.00, 57.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50
269794

 

TifiaFX

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530 0
NZD/USD: NZD dynamics on the eve of the RBNZ meeting
11/11/2019

On Wednesday, the next RBNZ meeting will take place, and the decision on rates will be published at 01:00 (GMT).
In August, the RBNZ cut the rate at once by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the aggravation of the trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy. RBNZ executives are inclined to further soften monetary policy, believing that wage growth in the country remains weak, inflation expectations are falling, and low levels of business confidence indicate a slowdown in hiring and wage growth.
It is widely expected that the rate will be reduced at this meeting by 0.25%, to the level of 0.75%.
The RBNZ press conference will begin on Wednesday at 02:00 (GMT).
Probably, the head of the RBNZ Adrian Orr will reaffirm the bank’s penchant for soft monetary policy, which will preserve the pressure on the New Zealand currency.
New Zealand's export-oriented economy suffers greatly from a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in purchases of New Zealand products, including by China. Meanwhile, optimism and risk appetite of investors are gradually dying out. Although China announced an agreement to abolish duties, U.S. President Donald Trump said last Friday that the United States did not promise to abolish existing customs duties on Chinese goods.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar strengthened, and NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, rising to a short-term resistance level of 0.6372 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, expectations of a lower interest rate of the RBNZ and the bank's propensity for soft policy will restrain NZD / USD and the New Zealand dollar from further growth.
Below the resistance level of 0.6525 (EMA200 on the daily chart), short positions remain preferred. The breakdown of the local support level of 0.6322 will be a signal for resuming NZD / USD sales with the immediate target at 0.6260 (Fibonacci level 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
Support Levels: 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6372, 0.6390, 0.6435, 0.6475, 0.6525

Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6410. Take-Profit 0.6322, 0.6300, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6410. Stop-Loss 0.6360. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6475, 0.6525

 

TifiaFX

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EUR/USD: negative dynamics of the pair remains
11/12/2019

Eurodollar could not develop an upward trend above the marks reached last month near the resistance level of 1.1180.
The likelihood of a soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China has again declined, and market participants are waiting for Donald Trump to decide to impose 25% duties on the import of European cars and components for their assembly into the United States.
Against the background of the ongoing US trade conflict with China, the introduction of these duties would become a significant aggravation of the global trade situation and would make an additional contribution to the slowdown of the global economy.
In this situation, the role of the dollar as a defensive asset again comes to the fore. The US economy appears more resilient amid a general slowdown in the global economy. In the 1st quarter of 2019, US GDP growth amounted to 3.1% (in annual terms), in the 2nd - 2%, in the 3rd quarter - 1.9%.
Now market participants will follow the publication on Thursday (at 07:00 and 10:00 GMT) of GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone.
German GDP growth is expected to slow again (-0.1% after a similar fall in the 2nd quarter). An updated estimate of the Eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter suggests an increase of 0.2% (+1.1% in annual terms). Despite the positive data, this is significantly lower than the growth rate of the American economy.
Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index continues to grow. At the beginning of the European session, DXY dollar index futures were trading at 98.17, 20 pips above the opening price earlier this month.
The growing yield of US government bonds is also supporting the dollar.
So, the yield on 10-year US bonds is 1.938% at the time of writing, versus 1.691% at the beginning of the month.
Thus, the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure in the medium term.
In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
Below the resistance level of 1.1070 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts, ЕМА50 on the daily chart), only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1070, 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180


 

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