USD/CAD: despite the decline, positive dynamics of the pair remains
11/10/2019
Expectations of the Fed’s further steps towards easing monetary policy are currently the main negative factor for the dollar. Most Fed leaders supported lower interest rates in September, some of whom called for lower rates more significantly.
On Friday, investors are also awaiting the outcome of Trump’s meeting with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, the head of the Chinese delegation of trade negotiators.
"We had very, very good negotiations", Trump told reporters on Thursday. As the Xinhua State News Agency of China reported, the Chinese side approached the negotiations "with great sincerity and seeks a serious exchange of views with the United States".
At the beginning of the European session, the USD / CAD pair is trading near 1.3270. Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 1.3250 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
At 14:30 (GMT) Statistics Canada will provide data from the country's labor market.
If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data turn out to be better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for CAD, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor.
Forecast for September: 5.7%. If the increase in the number of employed in September is weaker than the previous value (forecast +40,200 employed), then the Canadian dollar may also respond with a decrease.
The previous value is +81,100 employees (in August), the forecast for September is +40,200 employees.
Strengthening oil prices are also supporting the Canadian dollar.
Quotations of oil futures on the basis of US trading on Thursday rose by 1.8%, to 53.53 dollars per barrel, after statements by OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo about the coalition’s readiness to consider at a December meeting the possibility of a larger reduction in production.
The growth of USD / CAD into the zone above the resistance level of 1.3300 will resume the bullish trend. After the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3345 (August highs), USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3270, 1.3250 will speak in favor of a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3205, 1.3138 (September lows).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decrease in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2910 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3270, 1.3250, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2910
Resistance Levels: 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3260. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2910
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3260. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560
11/10/2019
Expectations of the Fed’s further steps towards easing monetary policy are currently the main negative factor for the dollar. Most Fed leaders supported lower interest rates in September, some of whom called for lower rates more significantly.
On Friday, investors are also awaiting the outcome of Trump’s meeting with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, the head of the Chinese delegation of trade negotiators.
"We had very, very good negotiations", Trump told reporters on Thursday. As the Xinhua State News Agency of China reported, the Chinese side approached the negotiations "with great sincerity and seeks a serious exchange of views with the United States".
At the beginning of the European session, the USD / CAD pair is trading near 1.3270. Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 1.3250 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
At 14:30 (GMT) Statistics Canada will provide data from the country's labor market.
If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data turn out to be better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for CAD, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor.
Forecast for September: 5.7%. If the increase in the number of employed in September is weaker than the previous value (forecast +40,200 employed), then the Canadian dollar may also respond with a decrease.
The previous value is +81,100 employees (in August), the forecast for September is +40,200 employees.
Strengthening oil prices are also supporting the Canadian dollar.
Quotations of oil futures on the basis of US trading on Thursday rose by 1.8%, to 53.53 dollars per barrel, after statements by OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo about the coalition’s readiness to consider at a December meeting the possibility of a larger reduction in production.
The growth of USD / CAD into the zone above the resistance level of 1.3300 will resume the bullish trend. After the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3345 (August highs), USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3270, 1.3250 will speak in favor of a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3205, 1.3138 (September lows).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decrease in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2910 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3270, 1.3250, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2910
Resistance Levels: 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3260. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2910
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3260. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560


