Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: despite the decline, positive dynamics of the pair remains
11/10/2019
Expectations of the Fed’s further steps towards easing monetary policy are currently the main negative factor for the dollar. Most Fed leaders supported lower interest rates in September, some of whom called for lower rates more significantly.
On Friday, investors are also awaiting the outcome of Trump’s meeting with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, the head of the Chinese delegation of trade negotiators.
"We had very, very good negotiations", Trump told reporters on Thursday. As the Xinhua State News Agency of China reported, the Chinese side approached the negotiations "with great sincerity and seeks a serious exchange of views with the United States".
At the beginning of the European session, the USD / CAD pair is trading near 1.3270. Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 1.3250 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
At 14:30 (GMT) Statistics Canada will provide data from the country's labor market.
If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data turn out to be better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for CAD, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor.
Forecast for September: 5.7%. If the increase in the number of employed in September is weaker than the previous value (forecast +40,200 employed), then the Canadian dollar may also respond with a decrease.
The previous value is +81,100 employees (in August), the forecast for September is +40,200 employees.
Strengthening oil prices are also supporting the Canadian dollar.
Quotations of oil futures on the basis of US trading on Thursday rose by 1.8%, to 53.53 dollars per barrel, after statements by OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo about the coalition’s readiness to consider at a December meeting the possibility of a larger reduction in production.
The growth of USD / CAD into the zone above the resistance level of 1.3300 will resume the bullish trend. After the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3345 (August highs), USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3270, 1.3250 will speak in favor of a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3205, 1.3138 (September lows).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decrease in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2910 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3270, 1.3250, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2910
Resistance Levels: 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3260. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2910
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3260. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: stock indices remain positive
10/14/2019
Current situation
The weakening trade tensions between the US and China caused a rise in positive market sentiment. Last week, Washington decided to postpone the introduction of higher duties on Chinese goods in the amount of $ 250 billion in response to guarantees that the Chinese side would buy US agricultural products in the amount of $ 40-50 billion.
However, many economists remain cautious about the consequences of a partial transaction and the outcome of future negotiations.
Despite some concessions made by the parties last week, the main trade contradictions between the US and China have not been resolved, which continues to overshadow the prospects for the global economy.
In the middle of last month, the S&P500 again approached the level of absolute and annual maximums near 3028.0. However, for the breakdown of this level of resistance, the positive impulse was not enough and the S&P500 fell again.
Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
In the first half of the European session on Monday, futures on the S&P500 traded in the range between the local resistance level of 2990.0 (last week's maximum) and the short-term support level of 2950.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Breakdown in one direction or another will determine the direction of further index movement.
Despite the current decline, the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the S&P500, including.
A return to the zone above the resistance level of 2990.0 will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and speak in favor of the resumption of purchases.
The S&P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above the key support level of 2880.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), as well as the level of 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). A little lower is the lower boundary of the rising channel on the daily chart.
Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts are on the side of the sellers, signaling a downward correction. So, purchases are premature so far.
Today is a day off in the USA (Columbus Day). Banks and exchanges will be closed. Trading volumes during the US session will be low. However, this does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the thin market, especially due to unexpected news or media reports.
Support Levels: 2950.0, 2942.0, 2905.0, 2880.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
Resistance Levels: 2990.0, 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2940.0. Stop-Loss 2995.0. Objectives 2905.0, 2880.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
Buy Stop 2995.0. Stop-Loss 2940.0. Goals 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
10/15/2019
Following the results of trade negotiations between the USA and China last week, the White House decided to postpone the increase in duties on Chinese goods planned for this week.
China, for its part, promised to increase the volume of agricultural imports from the United States, bringing it to the amount of $ 40-50 billion.
Nevertheless, this news did not cause much enthusiasm for investors. Arrangements to increase China's imports of US agricultural products to $ 50 billion are vague, and disagreements on issues such as protecting intellectual property and subsidizing agricultural producers in China have not been resolved.
The measures taken are not enough to mitigate the uncertainties that are holding back the growth of the global economy.
Investors again prefer the American dollar. The DXY dollar index is rising today for the second day in a row.
New Zealand's export-oriented economy suffers greatly from a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in purchases of New Zealand products.
"World economic activity continues to weaken, which reduces the demand for goods and services from New Zealand. Increased uncertainty and a reduction in international trade contribute to a decrease in economic growth in the trading partner countries", the RBNZ said in a statement following a bank meeting in August.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, the NZD / USD pair is trading near 0.6282, 46 pips below the opening price earlier this week.
Of the news today regarding NZD, you should pay attention to the publication (in the period after 14:00 - 14:30 GMT) of data with the results of the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) milk auction.
The share of dairy exports in total exports of New Zealand is approaching 20%.
If the data indicate an increase in world prices for dairy products (they are expected to grow by 1.8%), primarily for milk powder, then the New Zealand dollar will strengthen.
Also, today (at 21:45 GMT) the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand will publish the consumer price index for the 3rd quarter. The CPI is a key indicator for measuring inflation. A positive result will strengthen NZD, a negative result will weaken. Forecast: + 0.6% (against + 0.6% in the 2nd quarter) and + 1.4% (against + 1.7% in the 2nd quarter) in annual terms. Data worse than forecast and previous values are likely to adversely affect NZD. Data better than forecast will strengthen NZD.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline at the beginning of today's European session. The negative fundamental background creates the prerequisites for further weakening of the New Zealand dollar.
Below the resistance level of 0.6560 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
Currently, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6282, below the short-term resistance level of 0.6305 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Below resistance levels 0.6305, 0.6336 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered. The tendency of the RBNZ to maintain a soft policy and possibly further lower the rate puts pressure on NZD / USD towards its further decrease.
Support Levels: 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6305, 0.6336, 0.6365, 0.6425, 0.6490, 0.6560

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6315. Take-Profit 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6315. Stop-Loss 0.6270. Take-Profit 0.6336, 0.6365

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
16/10/2019
Statistics Canada reported last week that 53,700 new jobs were created in September (the forecast was +10,000), while unemployment fell by 0.2% to 5.5%, which roughly corresponds to 40-year lows.
Employment indicators may give the Bank of Canada reasons not to change the interest rate on October 30, when the bank meeting takes place.
After the publication of strong data from the country's labor market, the Canadian dollar strengthened sharply, while the USD / CAD pair fell by about 90 points to 1.3200.
However, the ongoing US-China trade war is putting pressure on both the US economy and the economies of other countries. Commodity currencies quotes, such as New Zealand, Australian and Canadian dollars, also suffer from this. The US dollar, in this situation, retains the status of an asset-refuge, since the American economy still looks more stable in the context of ongoing trade wars.
At the beginning of today's European session, USD / CAD is trading just above the closing price last Friday, near 1.3216.
A break into the zone above the resistance levels of 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3260 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will resume the bullish USD / CAD trend and direct the pair towards recent local maximums near the resistance level 1.3345 and the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, which currently runs between resistance levels 1.3345 and 1.3380.
The long-term positive dynamics of the US dollar and, accordingly, the pair USD / CAD remain.
In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the local support level of 1.3170 will speak in favor of a further decline. The objectives of the decline are the support levels of 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3050 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 1.2920 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Volatility in the USD / CAD pair may rise sharply today at 12:30 (GMT), when important macro data for the USA and Canada will be published.
According to the forecast for September, it is expected that the consumer price index in Canada will come out with a value of +2.1%, which is likely to support CAD. Core CPI is expected to increase by +1.9% in September.
At the same time, retail sales, the main indicator of US consumer spending, showing changes in retail sales, grew in September, as expected, by +0.3% (after growing by +0.4% in August).
A slight increase in values is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. Data worse than forecast will negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Support Levels: 1.3200, 1.3172, 1.3138, 1.3050, 1.2920
Resistance Levels: 1.3250, 1.3260, 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3170. Stop-Loss 1.3270. Take-Profit 1.3138, 1.3050, 1.2920
Buy Stop 1.3270. Stop-Loss 1.3170. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: breakthrough in Brexit issue
10/17/2019
We now have a “wonderful new deal that takes back control”, said British Prime Minister Johnson. The head of the European Commission, Junker, confirmed that the Brexit agreement has been agreed.
"There is a will - there is an agreement, and we have it", wrote Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European Commission, on Twitter on Thursday.
"This is a fair agreement, balanced in the interests of the EU and in the interests of the UK, and this is a proof of our commitment to finding solutions", he said.
The draft Brexit agreement should now be approved by EU leaders, UK and EU parliaments at the summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.
According to Boris Johnson, the British parliament should approve Brexit on Saturday.
In anticipation of this event, the pound has strengthened in the past few days. On Thursday, the GBP / USD pair rose again, reaching 1.2987 (a local and 5-month high) at the start of the European session amid a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations.
The upper border of the descending channel on the weekly chart passes through this mark.
A breakthrough of this resistance level will open the way for the growth of GBP / USD into the zone of resistance levels 1.3100 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) , 1.3375 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
In an alternative scenario, a return to the zone below 1.2625 will indicate the resumption of the bearish trend of GBP / USD. Below the support level of 1.2625, short positions will again become preferable.
Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index is falling on Thursday for the third consecutive week. US companies continue to face the negative effects of a slowdown in global economic growth and uncertainty in international trade, according to the Beige Book, published last Wednesday. This lowers their expectations regarding their own prospects for the next 6-12 months.
Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 97.30. The dollar is pressured by the expectation that the Fed will lower the rate at a meeting in late October. The probability of this event is estimated by investors at about 90%, according to the CME Group.
Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2565, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2987, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3375

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2745. Stop-Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2565, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2990. Stop-Loss 1.2745. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3375

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: negative dynamics prevail despite corrective growth
10/18/2019
In the middle of last month, the price of WTI crude oil rose sharply, approaching a strong resistance level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15, as well as the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart). The sharp rise in oil prices was facilitated by terrorist attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia.
However, the price failed to break through this resistance level and subsequently fell, returning to the zone below the key level of 57.00 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily and weekly charts).
At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 54.20, below the resistance level of 54.80 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 53.50 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will resume the bearish trend.
In an alternative scenario, the signal to resume purchases will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 55.40 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
Further growth and the breakdown of the resistance level of 57.00 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the resistance level of 60.90 (July highs) and to the 63.50, 64.40 marks.
So far, a negative impulse prevails. Below the resistance level of 54.80, only short positions should be considered.
Now, oil market participants will follow the publication on Friday (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 712 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
However, so far, a negative impulse prevails, contributing to a further decline in oil prices.
The situation in the global stock and commodity markets may deteriorate again if on Saturday the British Parliament does not approve the Brexit.
In this case, world stock indices may fall again, pulling down oil quotes.
Support Levels: 53.50, 52.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 54.80, 55.40, 57.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 53.40. Stop-Loss 55.50. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 55.50. Stop-Loss 53.40. Take-Profit 57.00, 59.50, 60.90

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the pound does not want to decline
10/21/2019
The pound and GBP / USD have been rising since the beginning of this month and for the 4th week in a row, receiving support from the reduced risks of the “hard” Brexit. Despite the fact that Boris Johnson on Saturday failed to secure the support of the British Parliament regarding his Brexit deal, the pound did not lose a positive impulse. The members of parliament decided that a decisive vote can only be held after a thorough examination of all related legislation, which can take a considerable amount of time.
Johnson obeyed the decision of the Parliament, but in a separate letter addressed to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, asked the EU leaders to reject his own motion.
Despite the pound falling during the Asian session, at the beginning of the European session on Monday, the GBP / USD pair is growing again, rising to the level of 1.3011.
This week Johnson will again try to enlist the support of a sufficient number of legislators to approve the agreement. However, the likelihood of a hard Brexit is significantly reduced.
Earlier in October, GBP / USD broke through an important resistance level of 1.2625 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and today reached a new 5-month high near 1.3011,
through which the upper boundary of the descending channel passes on the weekly chart.
A breakthrough of this resistance level will open the way for the growth of GBP / USD to the zone of resistance levels of 1.3100 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) , 1.3370 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
In an alternative scenario, a return to the zone below 1.2625 will indicate the resumption of the bearish trend of GBP / USD. The current goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%).
So far, a positive impetus prevails, however, short positions below the support level of 1.2625 will again be preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2550, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.3020. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2550, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3020. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: the fall of the US dollar has stopped
10/22/2019
Australia's unemployment rate dropped in September (to 5.2% from 5.3% in August), while consumer confidence in the country rose 0.6% last week after falling 1.2% the previous week.
At the same time, economists expect Australia's labor market and core inflation to weaken in the coming months.
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for the Australian economy, which against the backdrop of worsening economic data in China is a negative factor for investors betting on the further growth of the Australian currency.
Some market participants believe that the RBA may again lower the rate to 0.25% at the beginning of 2020, as well as launch a quantitative easing program.
Meanwhile, the fall of the US dollar has stopped. Futures on the DXY dollar index is growing, trading at the beginning of the European session near 97.11, 8 points higher than the opening price at the beginning of today's trading day.
"The development of a trade agreement with China is progressing very well", said Donald Trump on Monday, and Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said the parties have made some progress in the negotiations.
Investors hope that the United States and China may be moving towards a preliminary agreement, despite the persistence of unresolved disagreements on issues such as protecting intellectual property and subsidizing agricultural producers in China.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term downtrend, continuing to trade in the zone below the key resistance level of 0.6950 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be the first signal to resume the sales of AUD / USD.
In this case, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
In any case, from a technical point of view, the correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6895 (EMA144 on the daily chart and September highs), 0.6950 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6810, 0.6790, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6875, 0.6895, 0.6950

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6890. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6810, 0.6790, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop-Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6950

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
10/23/2019
Amid the weakening US dollar, EUR / USD was able to grow significantly this month, reaching on Monday a new 10-week high near 1.1180. However, below the key resistance levels of 1.1150 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), a long-term bearish trend remains.
The small steps taken earlier this month towards a ceasefire in a trade war between China and the US are not enough to ease the uncertainties that are holding back the global economy, and uncertainty has reappeared on the Brexit issue.
In this regard, the role of the dollar as a protective asset is once again becoming relevant.
In September, the ECB lowered its key interest rate, which was already in negative territory, and resumed its bond purchase program. The ECB leaders promised to keep these measures in force, "until we see that the inflation prospects are stably in line" with reaching the target level.
Market participants are preparing for tomorrow's ECB meeting, which will be the last under the leadership of Mario Draghi. From November 1, this post will take Christine Lagarde.
The ECB's decision on rates will be published on Thursday at 11:45 (GMT), and a press conference following the ECB meeting will begin at 12:30.
As previously published data showed, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone in September slowed to 0.9%, a minimum of almost three years. The growth of the Eurozone economy has been weakening since the beginning of 2018, which forces the ECB to actively support the European economy, lowering the interest rate and expanding quantitative easing.
Slowing European economies and soft ECB policies further weaken the euro.
In general, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1094 will be a signal for building up short positions.
Support Levels: 1.1094, 1.1047, 1.1015, 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1150, 1.1200

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell Limit 1.1150. Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1047, 1.1015, 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1400

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: despite the price increase, negative dynamics prevail
10/24/2019
In the middle of last month, the price of WTI crude oil rose sharply, approaching a strong resistance level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15). The sharp rise in oil prices was facilitated by terrorist attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia.
However, the price could not break through this resistance level and subsequently fell, returning to the zone below the key level of 57.00 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily and weekly charts).
At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 55.40 mark, through which the support level (Fibonacci 38.2%) passes, receiving support from yesterday's data on US oil reserves.
Further growth and the breakdown of the resistance level of 57.00 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the resistance level of 60.90 (July highs and the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart) and further to the levels of 63.50, 64.40.
In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 54.70 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
So far, a negative impulse prevails. Below the resistance level of 57.00, short positions remain preferred, while the current price increase should be considered corrective.
Now, oil market participants will follow the publication on Friday (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States (to 713 units at the moment). If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
Today, the attention of participants in financial markets will be focused at a meeting of the ECB. The decision on rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30. Interest rates are likely to remain the same. However, the ECB's propensity to further soften its monetary policy may cause an increase in stock indices and quotes for commodities, including oil.
Support Levels: 55.40, 54.70, 53.95, 53.00, 52.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 57.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 54.60. Stop-Loss 56.10. Take-Profit 53.95, 53.00, 52.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 56.10. Stop-Loss 54.60. Take-Profit 57.00, 59.50, 60.90

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
10/25/2019
On Thursday, the EUR / USD pair fell after a meeting and a press conference of the ECB. This was also facilitated by some positive macro data from the United States. Preliminary PMI for the service sector in October reached a 3-month high of 51 against 50.9 in September. Preliminary PMI for the US manufacturing sector was 51.5 after 51.1 in September. The preliminary composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the United States rose to 51.2 in October from 51 in September. This was reported on Thursday by IHS Markit.
EUR / USD hit a weekly low near 1.1093. However, on Friday the decline in the dollar and the growth of EUR / USD resumed.
EUR / USD remains positive, trading on Friday above important short-term support levels of 1.1104 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1055 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Nevertheless, a more significant growth of EUR / USD is limited by strong resistance levels of 1.1150 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The upper boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart also passes through the 1.1200 mark.
In general, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
A signal for sales will be a breakdown of short-term support levels 1.1104, 1.1055.
The publication of important news for today is not planned. Financial market participants continue to evaluate the results of yesterday's meeting of the ECB and align their positions before the Fed meeting. The next Fed meeting on monetary policy will be held next week, and the decision on the rate will be published on Wednesday, October 30 (at 18:00 GMT).
However, you should pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the updated release of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for October. This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low indicates stagnation. The previous indicator value (for September) is 93.2, and the preliminary release indicated an increase in the indicator to 96.0. Deviations of the indicator in one direction or another from this value will also cause a short-term movement of the dollar in the same direction.
Support Levels: 1.1104, 1.1055, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1150, 1.1200

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell Limit 1.1150. Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1055, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1400

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: bullish trend remains valid
10/28/2019
After it became known about the progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, growth in the US stock market accelerated.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6% on Friday to 26968.00 points.
The S&P 500 on Friday increased by 0.4% to 3021.00 points, and by the end of the week gained 1.2%.
According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, the trade representatives of the two countries "agreed to properly resolve key problems and confirmed that the technical consultations on some parts of the text of the agreement have basically been completed".
The positive news that the parties are completing preparations for the first stage of the trade transaction also provoked an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds.
US stock indexes remain positive ahead of the Fed meeting this week. The Fed is expected to cut rate by 0.25% to 1.75%.
Nevertheless, if Fed leaders signal that they will take a break to evaluate the results of the mitigation cycle, this can cause a sharp increase in volatility in the financial markets and lead to profit taking in long positions in the US stock market.
The market dynamics this week may also be affected by the meetings of the Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada, data from the US labor market and new corporate financial reports.
On Monday (at 12:30 GMT) data on wholesale stocks in the US for September will be released. Economists expect stocks up 0.3% from the previous month after rising 0.2% in August. The increase in stocks in warehouses reflects a slowdown in the economy and negatively affects the US dollar and the dynamics of US stock indexes.
If the data turn out to be better than the forecast, or lower than the previous value, this will provide additional support to the stock market and indices.
The S & P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above the key support level of 2895.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Long positions are preferred so far.
In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of support levels of 2997.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 2972.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), S & P500 will go to support levels 2895.0, 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth from December 2018 and marks 2335.0).
Further decline is unlikely. The long-term bullish trend of the US stock market remains.
Support Levels: 2997.0, 2972.0, 2920.0, 2895.0, 2865.0
Resistance Levels: 3029.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2970.0. Stop-Loss 3030.0. Goals 2920.0, 2895.0, 2865.0
Buy Stop 3030.0. Stop-Loss 2970.0. Goals 3100.0, 3200.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
10/29/2019
Positive news on the progress of US-Chinese trade negotiations supports the Australian currency. “China is likely to sign an agreement at an economic summit in Chile next month”, US President Donald Trump said Monday.
The United States and China are Australia's largest trade and economic partners, and a positive shift in trade relations between the two countries has a positive effect on the mood of consumers and investors in the Australian economy.
On Wednesday (at 00:30 GMT) inflation data in Australia in the 3rd quarter will be published. It is expected that the annual consumer price index will indicate an increase in inflation in the 3rd quarter by 1.7%, which is better than the CPI for the 2nd quarter (+1.6%).
At the same time, betting on further significant growth of the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD is not necessary.
Speaking at Canberra on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia manager Philip Lowe said further interest rates are likely to drop.
"If we decide to ignore these trends (the actions of the central banks of other countries), the exchange rate is likely to rise. In the current environment, this will not be useful for employment growth and achieving the inflation target", Lowe said.
At the same time, higher growth rates in the US economy than in other developed countries will contribute to increased demand for US assets and the US dollar.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term downtrend, trading below the key resistance level of 0.6940 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6830 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be the first signal to resume sales of AUD / USD.
In this case, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The immediate goal is located at support levels 0.6810 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.6802 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
In an alternative scenario, the correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6890, 0.6940.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6810, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6890, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6865. Take-Profit 0.6810, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6865. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6890, 0.6940

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Fed and Bank of Canada rate decisions
10/30/2019
Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 97.42, 18 pips below the opening price of the current trading week and 188 pips below 99.30, near which it was trading earlier this month, when the DXY reached its highest level since March 2017 year.
And yet, despite the decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the US dollar remains. The US economy growth rates, despite signs of a slowdown, is still higher than in other developed countries. The US continues to outperform other developed economies in terms of GDP growth, which creates the preconditions for maintaining demand for US assets and the dollar.
Today (at 12:30 GMT) will be published annual data on US GDP. According to the forecast, GDP in the 3rd quarter grew by 1.7% after rising by 2.0% in the previous 2nd quarter.
And at 18:00 (GMT), the Fed will publish its decision on interest rates. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower its base rate by 0.25% to 1.75%. However, market participants do not have full clarity regarding further plans of the Fed.
Therefore, the attention of financial market participants will be focused on the Fed press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT). If Fed leaders signal that they are likely to take a break in a further rate cut in order to evaluate the results of the ongoing mitigation cycle, this could trigger a fix for short positions and a dollar growth.
If the rhetoric of the accompanying statement by the Fed is soft, then the growth of stock indices and the decline in the dollar may continue.
At 14:00, the Bank of Canada will publish its decision on the rate. Bank of Canada officials said last month that the economy and labor market are in good shape despite escalating trade conflicts. This creates the prerequisites for the Bank of Canada to be able to leave its key rate unchanged at the current meeting, at the same level of 1.75%.
Despite the decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the USD / CAD pair remains. The pair is trading above the key and long-term support level of 1.2900 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
A break into the zone above the resistance level 1.3230 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend of USD / CAD and direct the pair towards recent local maxima near the resistance level 1.3345.
The first signal to resume purchases will be the breakdown of resistance levels 1.3100 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3138 (September lows).
Support Levels: 1.3050, 1.3015, 1.2900
Resistance Levels: 1.3100, 1.3138, 1.3185, 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3380

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3040. Stop-Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3015, 1.2900
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop-Loss 1.3040. Take-Profit 1.3138, 1.3185, 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Fed lowered rate for the 3rd time this year
10/31/2019
The dollar continued to decline during today's Asian session. At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, the DXY dollar index futures were trading near 97.04, 20 pips below the opening price of today's trading day and 56 pips below the opening price of the current week.
The Fed expectedly lowered the rate by 0.25% to 1.75% last Wednesday. At the same time, Fed leaders signaled that there was likely to be no further rate cut before the end of this year. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a subsequent press conference again recognized the state of the US economy as strong, despite partial weakness in some sectors.
“There are many risks left, but I have to say that the risks seem to have weakened”, Powell said.
Now market participants will follow the publication on Thursday (at 12:30 GMT) of data on consumer and personal expenses and reports on employment and business activity in the manufacturing sector on Friday (at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT).
The American economy, despite the difficulties, looks more stable in comparison with other major world economies, which will lead to continued demand for US stock market assets and the dollar.
The political situation in the EU itself is quite tense, Britain’s exit from the EU is still surrounded by uncertainty, and the likelihood that the United States and China will not be able to consolidate their trade truce is still high.
One way or another, EUR / USD is trading at the beginning of today's European session near the mark
1.1170, 18 pips above today's open price. Despite the corrective growth, the long-term negative dynamics of this currency pair remains.
In the case of the resumption of negative macroeconomic information, indicating a slowdown in the European economy, Eurodollar will resume decline.
On a positive impulse received from the Fed meeting, EUR / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 1.1145 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and continued to grow during today's Asian session, reaching 2-month highs near 1.1175.
Nevertheless, growth above the level of 1.1195 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is unlikely.
Return to the area below the level of 1.1145 will cause the resumption of the downward trend.
Support Levels: 1.1145, 1.1110, 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1195, 1.1240, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell Limit 1.1190, 1.1200. Sell Stop 1.1140. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850