Tifia Daily Market Analytics

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DJIA: current dynamics and market expectations
09/23/2019

US stock indices maintain a long-term positive trend. In mid-September, DJIA again approached the level of absolute and annual highs near the 27400.0 mark. However, a breakdown of this resistance level did not occur and the DJIA again declined.
On Friday, it became known that the Chinese trade delegation canceled the planned visit to US agricultural enterprises after President Donald Trump said he was not interested in a “partial agreement” with China.
This information caused a fall in the stock market and a rise in price of protective assets. Gold rose again in price, and the yield on 10-year US bonds fell to 1.754% from 1.777% on Thursday. The decline in US stock indexes on Friday led to the fact that they closed last week in negative territory.
In the first half of the European session on Monday, DJIA futures traded in the range between the short-term resistance level of 27010.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and support level 26670.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Breakdown in one direction or another will determine the direction of further movement of the DJIA.
In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support level of 26030.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 25270.0 (local lows and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart), 24600.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from the mark of 15500.0).
A return to the zone above the resistance level of 27010.0 will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and will speak in favor of the resumption of purchases.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45 (GMT) of the Procurement Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in September (according to the forecast it will be 50.3, as in August). If the data turn out to be better than the forecast, then US stock indices will rise. Data is worse than forecast and below 50 will negatively affect US stock indices.
Support Levels: 26670.0, 26030.0, 25270.0, 24600.0
Resistance Levels: 27010.0, 27400.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 27030.0. Stop-Loss 26650.0 Take-Profit 27400.0, 27500.0
Sell Stop 26650.0. Stop-Loss 27030.0. Take-Profit 26030.0, 25270.0, 24600.0

 

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EUR/USD: Euro is likely to continue to decline
09/24/2019

Following the decision of the ECB to lower the deposit rate and resume the QE program, Eurodollar remains under pressure. According to ECB President Mario Draghi, the balance of risks for the economic prospects of the Eurozone "is still shifted in the negative direction".
Given the expectation of a tough Brexit, low inflation and a slowdown in the Eurozone, as well as the threat of an escalation of trade wars, the ECB is likely to continue to take measures to stimulate and support the European economy, which will lead to further weakening of the euro. A further decline in EUR / USD should be expected.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, the EUR / USD is trading in the range near the 1.1000 mark, trading in downward channels on the daily and weekly charts, below key resistance levels of 1.1190 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1245 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (level Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1026 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will go towards the resistance level of 1.1067 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). The maximum of correctional growth is possible up to the resistance level of 1.1090 (the upper border of the downward channel and ЕМА50 on the daily chart). The long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD prevails. Breakdown of the local support level of 1.0960 will provoke a deeper decline and will direct EUR / USD towards 1.0900, 1.0850 marks.
The data released on Monday once again indicated that the German economy is on the verge of a recession. Germany's Preliminary Procurement Managers Index (PMI) fell to 41.4 from 43.5 in August, reaching a low of almost ten years. A value below 50 indicates a decrease in activity. France PMI data were also worse than expected.
Support Levels: 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067, 1.1090, 1.1115

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1035. Take-Profit 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1035. Stop-Loss 1.0980. Take-Profit 1.1045, 1.1067, 1.1090, 1.1115
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/7hkHH22X/240919-EU-D.png[/img]

 

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NZD/USD: RBNZ did not change the rate
09/25/2019

The US dollar is recovering from a recent fall amid a statement by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that she will hold a meeting with members of the Democratic Party to discuss preparations for impeachment of President Donald Trump.
The US Consumer Confidence Index (from the Conference Board), published on Tuesday, which fell to 125.1 in September (with a forecast of 133.0 versus 135.1 in August), also negatively impacted the dollar.
On Wednesday (14:00 GMT) there will be data on home sales in the primary US market. They are expected to grow by 3.6% compared with the previous month, to 658,000 homes a year, which will support the dollar in confirming the forecast.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline in the first half of today's European session.
At a meeting on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the key interest rate at 1.0%, but signaled the likelihood of a further decline.
"There is room for further monetary and fiscal stimulation, if necessary, to support the economy, as well as keep target inflation and employment levels in force. Tensions in world trade and other political problems remain at high levels and continue to put pressure on the growth prospects of the global economy, which negatively affects the demand for goods and services in New Zealand", the RBNZ said in a statement.
Business confidence also remains low, which partly reflects political uncertainty and low profitability in some sectors, which negatively affects investment decisions, bank executives said.
Thus, a further weakening of the New Zealand dollar and the fall of the NZD / USD pair are likely.
The NZD / USD pair was unable to develop an upward correction above the short-term resistance level of 0.6323 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and resumed its decline within the descending channel on the daily chart.
Below resistance levels 0.6425, 0.6385 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.
The tendency of the RBNZ to maintain a soft policy and possibly further lower the rate puts pressure on NZD / USD towards its further decline with targets at support levels of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820), 0.6200. Short positions are preferred so far.
Below the resistance level of 0.6600 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6260, 0.6200
Resistance Levels: 0.6323, 0.6385, 0.6425, 0.6490, 0.6555, 0.6600

Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6350. Take-Profit 0.6260, 0.6200
Buy Stop 0.6350. Stop-Loss 0.6290. Take-Profit 0.6425

 

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WTI: so far, negative dynamics prevail
09/26/2019

Last Wednesday, the US Department of Energy reported an increase in commercial US oil reserves in the week of September 14–20 by 2.412 million barrels (the forecast assumed a decrease in reserves by 249,000 barrels). US oil inventories rose for the second week in a row.
The data presented caused investors concern over oversupply. US oil production again reached a record 12.5 million barrels per day, while US oil reserves are now at the 5-year average, which is a sign of abundant supply.
Uncertainty around the political situation in the United States and US-China trade negotiations is also a concern for investors.
Now, regarding the dynamics of oil prices, oil market participants will also follow the publication on Friday (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 719 units at the moment (from 773 units a week ago and 784 units 6 weeks ago). If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
At the beginning of last week, the price of WTI crude oil rose sharply, approaching a strong resistance level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15, as well as the upper border of the upward channel on the daily chart). The sharp rise in oil prices was facilitated by terrorist attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia.
However, the price failed to break through the resistance level of 63.50 and subsequently fell, returning to the zone below the key level of 57.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Below this resistance level, only short positions should be considered.
In this case, the long-term reduction target will be located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).
Support Levels: 55.40, 55.00, 53.00, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.95, 57.30, 57.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 55.70. Stop-Loss 57.90. Take-Profit 55.40, 55.00, 53.00, 50.30
Buy Stop 57.90. Stop-Loss 55.70. Take-Profit 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

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AUD/USD: negative dynamics prevail
09/27/2019

On the eve of the RBA meeting next week, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. Many market participants and economists expect that at a meeting scheduled for October 1, the RBA will lower the rate by 0.25% to 0.75%.
"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required for progress towards lowering unemployment and achieving the target inflation rate", said RBA Governor Philip Lowe following a bank meeting in September.
Meanwhile, the US dollar maintains its position in the foreign exchange market. The US economy appears more resilient in the current context of international trade conflicts and a slowing global economy. This stimulates the purchase of US assets and the dollar. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, futures for the DXY dollar index are trading near 98.85, 9 points above yesterday's closing price. Long-term positive dynamics of the dollar and the DXY index persist.
At 12:30 (GMT) data on personal income / expenses of Americans will be published. The PCE core price index is expected to accelerate to 1.8% in August (after rising 1.6% in July). This is slightly below the Fed's target annual inflation rate of 2%.
If the data matches the forecast or is better than it, then the dollar will receive additional support.
It is logical to expect a further decline in the pair AUD / USD, which remains in the long-term bearish trend, falling in the descending channels on the daily and weekly charts. Below the key resistance level of 0.6980 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), negative dynamics prevail. The immediate objectives of the decline are the support levels of 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009). Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6890, 0.6930, 0.6980

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6810, 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6850. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6890, 0.6920

 

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EUR/USD: long-term negative dynamics. Sales.
09/30/2019

EUR / USD continues to decline in the first half of the trading day on Monday. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair was trading near 1.0933. Positive data from the labor market in Germany and the Eurozone, published at the beginning of the European session, had practically no noticeable effect on the dynamics of the euro. Investors will wait for the publication (at 12:00 GMT) of the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) in Germany. Recent data indicate an accelerating downward trend in inflationary pressures in Germany. Forecast for September: + 1.2% (against + 1.0% in August). The rate growth is a positive factor for the euro. However, this is not enough to break the negative trend of the euro. The euro is likely to strengthen shortly after the publication of this indicator. If the data for September turn out to be worse than the forecast or the previous value (+ 1.0%), then Eurodollar may significantly decrease.
In general, long-term negative dynamics persist. Since May 2014, EUR / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. Currently, EUR / USD is trading in downward channels on the daily and weekly charts, below the key resistance levels of 1.1175 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below the short-term resistance level of 1.0977 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions are recommended.
The breakdown of the local support level of 1.0900 will trigger a deeper decline and will direct EUR / USD towards 1.0850, 1.0800.
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the resistance level, 1.0977 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance level of 1.1045 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart). The maximum of corrective growth is possible up to the resistance level of 1.1067 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Growth above this resistance level is unlikely.
Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.0977, 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067, 1.1115

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0980. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800
Buy Stop 1.0980. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/XNTBbfLy/300919-EU-D.png[/img]
 

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NZD/USD: world central banks tend to soften policies
10/01/2019

At the beginning of today's European session, the NZD / USD pair is trading near the 0.6225 mark. The fundamental background creates the prerequisites for a further decline in this currency pair. RBNZ executives are prone to further easing monetary policy.
"The US-China trade conflict is affecting international trade flows and investments, as companies scale up spending plans in the face of heightened uncertainty", said RBA manager Philip Lowe after Australia's central bank cut interest rates today by 0,25%.
Earlier in August, the RBNZ also lowered the rate, at once by 50 bp, to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy. The New Zealand currency remains vulnerable amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and a trade conflict between New Zealand’s two largest trading partners — China and the United States.
Earlier in early September, the NZD / USD pair was unable to develop an upward correction above the local resistance level of 0.6443 and resumed decline in the descending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
Currently, NZD / USD is trading near the 0.6225 mark, below the short-term resistance level of 0.6293 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Below resistance levels 0.6293, 0.6365 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.
An alternative scenario assumes a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6365 and correctional growth with targets at the resistance level of 0.6443, 0.6490 (lows in May and June). Further growth of NZD / USD is unlikely, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively reduce the interest rate.
Below the resistance level of 0.6585 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
From the news today regarding NZD, you should pay attention to the publication (after 2:00 p.m. (GMT) of data on the results of a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products prepared by Global Dairy Trade came out with a value of +2.0%. If the data indicate a drop in world prices for dairy products, primarily milk powder, then the New Zealand dollar will decline.
Support Levels: 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6260, 0.6293, 0.6365, 0.6425, 0.6490, 0.6535, 0.6585

Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6310. Take-Profit 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6310. Stop-Loss 0.6250. Take-Profit 0.6365, 0.6425, 0.6490


 

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EUR/USD: Eurodollar resumed decline
10/02/2019

Eurodollar resumed decline after rising on Tuesday. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 in September from 49.1 in August, reaching a minimum since June 2009 (forecast was 50.1) . Index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
US President Donald Trump reacted to the weak ISM data with another criticism of the Fed. On Tuesday, Trump tweeted that Fed President Jerome Powell "has allowed the dollar to strengthen so much, especially against ALL currencies, that has a negative impact on our producers". “They are the main enemies of the manufacturers”, Trump said.
After weak ISM data, the likelihood that the Fed, after all, will lower the interest rate by another 25 basis points at the December meeting, has increased.
On Wednesday, the dollar is recovering its position in the foreign exchange market. At the start of the European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading near 99.01, 21 pips above today's open price.
Now, after the publication of disappointing data on manufacturing activity from ISM on Tuesday, investors will more closely monitor the publication on Friday (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market.
It is expected that US unemployment in September remained at the same level of 3.7%, which corresponds to long-term lows, and the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector of the US economy was 140,000 (against +130,000 in August). If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, the dollar will receive a good incentive for further strengthening.

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair was trading near 1.0920.
The growth of the Eurozone economy has been weakening since the beginning of 2018, which forces the ECB to actively support the European economy, lowering the interest rate and expanding quantitative easing.
In early September, the ECB lowered its key interest rate, which was already in negative territory, and resumed the bond purchase program. The ECB leaders promised to keep these measures in force, "until we see that the inflation prospects are stably in line" with reaching the target level.
In general, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
The breakdown of the local support level of 1.0900 will trigger a deeper decline and will direct EUR / USD towards 1.0850, 1.0800 marks.
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.0953 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will go towards the resistance level of 1.1026 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart). Growth above this resistance level is unlikely.
Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.0953, 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067, 1.1090, 1.1115

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0960. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800
Buy Stop 1.0960. Stop-Loss 1.0890. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067, 1.1090, 1.1115


 

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WTI Oil: negative momentum prevails
03/10/2019

At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil was trading near 52.50, below the resistance level of 55.40 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%).
On Wednesday, futures for WTI crude oil on the NYMEX closed with a decrease of 1.8%, at 52.64 dollars per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures closed down 2% at 57.69 dollars a barrel.
The decline in oil prices occurs amid falling stock markets and rising oil reserves in the United States. As the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy reported on Wednesday, commercial oil reserves in the United States grew by 3.1 million barrels last week, for the third week in a row.
On Thursday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the ISM index for the US non-manufacturing sector. The ISM index is expected to drop to 55.0 in September from 56.4 in August. The service sector has a smaller share of US GDP than the manufacturing and consumer sectors. However, if the data are weaker than expected, then pressure on US stock indices will intensify, which is also likely to cause a further decline in oil prices.
And on Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States will be presented by the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 713 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
However, so far, a strong negative impulse prevails, contributing to a further decline in oil prices. Below resistance levels 56.20 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 55.40, should be considered only short positions.
In an alternative scenario, a signal to resume purchases will be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 53.00. Further growth and the breakdown of resistance levels 55.40, 56.20, 57.45 will direct the price to resistance level 60.90 (July highs) and further towards the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart and marks of 63.50, 64.40.
Support Levels: 52.00, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 53.00, 55.40, 56.20, 56.95, 57.45, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 51.90. Stop-Loss 53.10. Take-Profit 51.00, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 53.10. Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 54.00, 55.40, 56.20, 56.95, 57.45

 

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USD/CHF: dollar on the eve of the publication of data from the US labor market
10/04/2019

Following the release of disappointing US macro data this week, the dollar remains under pressure.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), dropped to 47.8 in September from 49.1 in August, reaching a low since June 2009 (forecast was 50.0).
The Procurement Managers Index (PMI) for the US services industry (from Markit Economics), published last Thursday, was 50.9 in September, showing the slowest growth in more than three years.
Other recent data also indicated that the ongoing US-China trade war is putting pressure on the US economy.
Now the focus of traders is the US data on the number of jobs outside agriculture, which will be published on Friday (at 12:30 GMT). It is expected that the number of jobs in the United States will increase by 145,000 in September after an increase of 130,000 in August and unemployment at the previous level of 3.7%.
If the report on the labor market is weak, the expectations of traders regarding the Fed rate cut may be strengthened.
According to CME Group, the probability of another 2 Fed rate cuts this year is 53%, compared to 39% on Wednesday and 19% a week ago.
Meanwhile, the USD / CHF pair is falling in the first half of the trading day. At the beginning of today's European session, it is trading near 0.9940.
Despite the current decline, the positive dynamics of USD / CHF. The pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 0.9920 (ЕМА200 and Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to the last wave of decline from November 2018 and from the level of 1.0130).
A signal for sales with the target at support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 0.9815 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.9905 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the nearest resistance level 0.9955 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will return USD / CHF to the bullish trend and point towards recent highs and the level of 1.0025.
Support Levels: 0.9940, 0.9922, 0.9905, 0.9875, 0.9840, 0.9815
Resistance Levels: 0.9955, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0025, 1.0110, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.9930. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 0.9922, 0.9905, 0.9875, 0.9840, 0.9815
Buy Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0025, 1.0110, 1.0125


 

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S&P500: long-term positive dynamics
07/10/2019

Investors, in general, reacted positively to the publication of a report from the US labor market last Friday. US stock indexes rose.
A lower-than-expected rate of job growth has strengthened expectations of further cuts in Fed interest rates.
The soft policies of the central bank usually support the stock market, increasing the propensity of investors to buy risky assets.
At the same time, the employment report helped alleviate concerns about a slowdown in economic growth. Despite declining activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, US employment growth rates remain high.
The US Department of Labor said last Friday that the number of jobs outside the US agriculture in September rose 136,000 (the forecast was +145,000), while unemployment fell to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
The dollar is also rising on Monday. Futures on the DXY dollar index, is trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near 98.61, 15 points above the opening price of today's trading day.
US stock indexes also, despite a strong correction last week, maintain long-term positive dynamics.
Last week, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida said the Central Bank will do everything necessary to ensure that the longest period of US economic growth does not stop. This week, several Fed representatives are also expected to speak. In particular, on Monday at 17:00 (GMT) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak.
On Friday, he said that “the US economy is in good shape despite the risks”, and the Fed’s mission “is to keep this state of affairs as long as possible”.
If he again expresses a tendency to further soften the Fed's monetary policy, then US stock indexes are likely to continue to grow.

The S&P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above the key support level 2875.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), as well as the level 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0).
It is likely that after the breakdown of the resistance level 2954.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 will continue to grow towards the level of 3028.0 (absolute maximums) and further.
Nevertheless, below the resistance level of 2954.0 from S&P500 purchases for the time being should refrain.
Support Levels: 2902.0, 2875.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
Resistance Levels: 2943.0, 2954.0, 2990.0, 3028.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2922.0. Stop-Loss 2955.0. Objectives 2902.0, 2875.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
Buy Stop 2955.0. Stop-Loss 2922.0. Objectives 2990.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


 

TifiaFX

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XAU/USD: demand for gold remains
08/10/2019

After the price of gold reached a new 6-year high near 1557.00 last month, it subsequently declined amid a reduction in the threat of a “hard” Brexit and hopes for a trade agreement between the US and China.
However, demand for gold remains both among global central banks and among private investors.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in August, world central banks increased their purchases of gold (+57.3 tons).
Thus, Central banks are trying to increase their stability in the face of strong volatility in the financial markets and geopolitical and foreign trade uncertainty.
A report on the US labor market, published last Friday, does not indicate the likelihood of a recession in the United States. The number of jobs outside agriculture in September increased by 136,000, although economists had expected stronger growth (+145,000). At the same time, the US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969.
However, the Fed can go on to further soften policies to support the US economy in the current turbulent financial markets.
“We must support the economy, not slow it down”, with the help of monetary policy, said Neil Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, last Monday.
Now, investors will carefully study the text of the minutes from the September meeting of the Fed, the publication of which is scheduled for Wednesday (18:00 GMT). Additional unexpected information contained in the protocols can also increase volatility in the financial markets.
Any signals from the Fed aimed at further easing monetary policy will cause a weakening dollar and an increase in gold quotes.

At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, XAU / USD is trading above important support levels at 1498.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart), 1485.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from September 2011 and marks 1920.00).
A strong positive momentum prevails, and long positions are preferred above these support levels.
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 1557.00 will lead to further price growth in the direction of multi-year and absolute highs near the mark of 1920.00 dollars per ounce.
Support Levels: 1498.00, 1485.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1420.00, 1392.00, 1380.00, 1305.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1520.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1483.00. Stop-Loss 1513.00. Take-Profit 1452.00, 1440.00, 1420.00, 1392.00, 1380.00
Buy Stop 1513.00. Stop-Loss 1483.00. Take-Profit 1520.00, 1555.00, 1585.00, 1600.00

 

TifiaFX

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XAU/USD: demand for gold remains
08/10/2019

After the price of gold reached a new 6-year high near 1557.00 last month, it subsequently declined amid a reduction in the threat of a “hard” Brexit and hopes for a trade agreement between the US and China.
However, demand for gold remains both among global central banks and among private investors.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in August, world central banks increased their purchases of gold (+57.3 tons).
Thus, Central banks are trying to increase their stability in the face of strong volatility in the financial markets and geopolitical and foreign trade uncertainty.
A report on the US labor market, published last Friday, does not indicate the likelihood of a recession in the United States. The number of jobs outside agriculture in September increased by 136,000, although economists had expected stronger growth (+145,000). At the same time, the US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969.
However, the Fed can go on to further soften policies to support the US economy in the current turbulent financial markets.
“We must support the economy, not slow it down”, with the help of monetary policy, said Neil Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, last Monday.
Now, investors will carefully study the text of the minutes from the September meeting of the Fed, the publication of which is scheduled for Wednesday (18:00 GMT). Additional unexpected information contained in the protocols can also increase volatility in the financial markets.
Any signals from the Fed aimed at further easing monetary policy will cause a weakening dollar and an increase in gold quotes.

At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, XAU / USD is trading above important support levels at 1498.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart), 1485.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from September 2011 and marks 1920.00).
A strong positive momentum prevails, and long positions are preferred above these support levels.
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 1557.00 will lead to further price growth in the direction of multi-year and absolute highs near the mark of 1920.00 dollars per ounce.
Support Levels: 1498.00, 1485.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1420.00, 1392.00, 1380.00, 1305.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1520.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1483.00. Stop-Loss 1513.00. Take-Profit 1452.00, 1440.00, 1420.00, 1392.00, 1380.00
Buy Stop 1513.00. Stop-Loss 1483.00. Take-Profit 1520.00, 1555.00, 1585.00, 1600.00

 

TifiaFX

Established member
529 0
EUR/USD: dollar declines before the publication of FOMC protocols
10/09/2019

The growth of the Eurozone economy has been weakening since the beginning of 2018, which forces the ECB to actively support the European economy, lowering the interest rate and expanding quantitative easing.
In early September, the ECB lowered its key interest rate, which was already in negative territory, and resumed the bond purchase program. The ECB leaders promised to keep these measures in force, "until we see that the inflation prospects are stably in line" with reaching the target level.
Economists believe that despite the comprehensive measures taken in September, the ECB still has room for maneuver and for further stimulating the European economy, which shows clear signs of a slowdown.
In general, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.0965 will signal a resumption of sales with the immediate goal at the local support level of 1.0900. Breakdown of this support level
will provoke a deeper decline and will direct EUR / USD towards 1.0850, 1.0800.
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels of 1.1040 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.1090, 1.1115 (September highs, May - April lows). Growth above this resistance level is unlikely.
Meanwhile, traders are preparing to the publishing at 18:00 (GMT) the minutes from the September meeting of the Fed and they are selling the dollar.
Unexpected information contained in the protocols can increase volatility in the financial markets. The soft rhetoric of the statements contained in the minutes will have a negative effect on the dollar. And, on the contrary, the “hawkish” position of the Fed leadership will support the dollar.
Investors will also follow the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Kansas City, which will begin at 15:00 (GMT).
Despite the fact that market participants expect the Fed to lower the rate at its meeting on October 29-30 by 0.25% with a probability of almost 80%, the dollar will remain attractive in the context of international trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy. Against the general background, the US economy looks more stable, which determines the attractiveness of American assets and the demand for the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.0965, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1000, 1.1015, 1.1040, 1.1090, 1.1115

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.0950. Stop-Loss 1.1020. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800
Buy Stop 1.1020. Stop-Loss 1.0950. Take-Profit 1.1040, 1.1090, 1.1115

 

TifiaFX

Established member
529 0
EUR/USD: Eurodollar grows amid weakening dollar
10/10/2019

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair was trading near 1.0980, and at the beginning of the European session on Thursday it was already above the short-term resistance level of 1.1015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
At the beginning of the month, the pair reached a minimum since June 2017 near the level of 1.0880. However, in the future, the direction of movement of EUR / USD has changed. On Thursday, Eurodollar is growing for the second day in a row amid a weakening dollar.
Fed protocols published on Wednesday did not provide clear guidance on monetary policy prospects, but weak data from the manufacturing sector and other signs of a slowdown in the US economy gave rise to market expectations of a new cut in the Fed's key rate in October.
The DXY dollar index is falling on Thursday, while maintaining a long-term positive trend. At the start of the European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading near 98.48, 25 pips below the opening price of today's trading day.
Traders are waiting for US data on consumer inflation and unemployment benefits to be released at 12:30 (GMT).
They are unlikely to support the dollar, as inflation remains restrained. According to the forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 0.1% compared with the previous month, as a month earlier. Base CPI rose 0.2%.
Bloomberg reported Wednesday that China is ready to conclude a partial agreement. This renewed investor optimism that the United States and China would nevertheless conclude a trade agreement soon or come to an armistice. It also contributes to dollar sales.
It is also worth paying attention to the publication at 11:30 (GMT) of the minutes from the September meeting of the ECB. As a result of this meeting, the ECB announced the restart of the quantitative easing program. Minutes of the meeting may also contain hints of further easing of monetary policy, which will be a negative signal for the euro.
Despite the current growth, in general, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
A good position is selling EUR / USD from current values and from the resistance level of 1.1040 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
In an alternative scenario and in case of further growth and breakdown of the short-term resistance level, 1.1040 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels of 1.1090, 1.1115 (September highs, May - April lows). Growth above this resistance level is unlikely.
Below the key resistance levels 1.1160 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1210 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a long-term bearish trend remains.
Support Levels: 1.1015, 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1040, 1.1090, 1.1115

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market, Sell Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.1055. Take-Profit 1.0970, 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800
Buy Stop 1.1055. Stop-Loss 1.1000. Take-Profit 1.1090, 1.1115


 

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