Tifia Daily Market Analytics

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EUR/USD: the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen
03/11/2019

After the published report on the labor market, investors' concerns that the global economic slowdown could have spread to the United States increased, and the likelihood of easing of the Fed’s monetary policy also increased.
As the US Department of Labor reported last Friday, unemployment in the country fell to 3.8% in February against 4.0% in January, the average hourly earnings in the private sector increased by 11 cents and amounted to $ 27.66. However, the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in February increased by 20,000. Economists had expected that the number of jobs in February would grow by 180,000, and unemployment would be 3.9%.
And yet, according to economists, the attractiveness of the dollar to investors will grow over the next few months. Despite the downturn in the global economy, the US economy looks more resilient compared to other major economies in the world. The dollar will continue to strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
At the same time, the euro remains under pressure after the ECB meeting last week. The outlook for the European economy has worsened, according to the ECB management. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, said that the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2019 will be 1.1%, not 1.7%, in 2020, 1.6%, and not 1.7% as previously planned.
The ECB announced a new program of target long-term refinancing, which was a surprise to investors.

The euro fell sharply last week, and the EUR / USD pair fell 1% (or 114 points) to 1.1191. On Thursday, the multi-month low was recorded at 1.1177.
The ECB will have to forget about the early start of the interest rate increase cycle. A further weakening of the euro and a decline in the EUR / USD pair are likely.
After the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1225, EUR / USD will move to the targets at the support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1450, 1.1500

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1215. Stop Loss 1.1275. Take-Profit 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1275. Stop Loss 1.1215. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1450, 1.1500


 

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GBP/USD: Trading Scenarios
03/12/2019

The British pound fell after the publication of data on the trade deficit, which exceeded market expectations. The trade deficit in January rose to 13.1 billion pounds from the December figure of 12.7 billion pounds.
Other data pointed to a recovery in the growth of the British economy in January after a weak December. GDP growth in November-January on an annualized basis amounted to 1.1% versus 0.9% in the previous three months.
Meanwhile, the greatest impact on the pound have expectations regarding the upcoming parliamentary vote on Brexit.
The pair GBP / USD declined in the first half of the European session and at the time of writing this article was trading down 140 points to the opening price of the trading day near 1.3040.
Through this mark passes a strong level of support in the form of a 200-period moving average on the daily chart.

In the event of a breakdown of a lower support level of 1.3000 (EMA144 on the daily chart), GBP / USD will go to support levels of 1.2785 (February lows), 1.2700. A more distant target for the decline is the support level of 1.2400 (lows of 2018, 2019).
In the case of GBP / USD growth and its return to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.3130 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), further strengthening and growth to the resistance level of 1.3400 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart) is likely.
The distant target is at the resistance level of 1.3670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and higher.
Support Levels: 1.3040, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Resistance Levels: 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2990. Stop Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Buy Stop 1.3140. Stop Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670


 

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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
13/03/2019

The pound is regaining its position after a sharp fall on Tuesday, when the British parliament again voted against the version of the Brexit agreement proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May.
Now lawmakers on Wednesday will vote on the issue of leaving the EU on March 29 without a deal. If they vote against, then on Thursday there will be a vote on the question of postponing the exit date from March 29 to a later date.
The GBP / USD maintains a positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily and 4-hour charts), 1.3000 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
In case of continued growth and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200) GBP / USD will aim to the resistance levels 1.3300, 1.3400 (upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Short positions will become relevant after the GBP / USD decline to a zone below the support level of 1.3000.
The signal for the resumption of sales of GBP / USD will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.3123 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.3123, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Resistance Levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3090. Stop Loss 1.3170. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Buy Stop 1.3170. Stop Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

 

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EUR/USD: dollar strengthened
14/03/2019

The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 currencies, is growing on Thursday.
In the middle of the European session, futures for the DXY dollar index traded near the 96.75 mark, 25 points higher than the opening price of today.
As the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Thursday, industrial production in the country in January-February increased by 5.3% compared with the same period last year, after an annual growth of 5.7% in December. At the beginning of 2019, the growth of the Chinese economy slowed down. Industrial production growth was weak, despite some recovery in investment.
In a situation of international trade wars, the US economy looks more stable compared to other major world economies.
This increases the investment attractiveness of the dollar and US assets.
Dollar growth also resumed after US President Donald Trump warned Beijing on Wednesday that he would not sign a trade agreement that would not take into account Washington’s demands.
On Thursday, the focus of traders' attention is the vote in the British Parliament on the postponement of the country's withdrawal from the EU from March 29 to a later date.
However, further developments are still very uncertain, which creates prerequisites for maintaining the situation of increased volatility in the financial market.
The situation around Brexit is reflected both in quotes of the pound and in quotations of the euro.

On Thursday, the EUR / USD is falling amid a stronger dollar. Probably further fall of the Eurodollar.
The outlook for the European economy has worsened, according to the ECB management. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, after the last meeting of the ECB, said that the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2019 will be 1.1%, not 1.7%, in 2020 1.6%, and not 1.7%, as planned earlier.
The ECB announced a new program of target long-term refinancing, which was a surprise to investors.
The euro fell sharply last week, and the EUR / USD pair fell 1% (or 114 points) to 1.1191. Last Thursday the multi-month minimum was fixed at 1.1177.
In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the resistance level of 1.1330 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1330, 1.1435, 1.1490

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1340. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1435, 1.1500

 

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WTI: oil prices likely to rise further
03/15/2019
Current dynamics

Oil prices are rising again on Friday, receiving support from data on US oil reserves, published on Wednesday. As the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy reported, oil reserves in the US last week unexpectedly fell by 3.9 million barrels to 449.1 million barrels (the forecast was +1.9 million barrels). The US restrictions on oil exports from Iran and Venezuela also contribute to a more significant reduction in world supply and higher oil prices. The United States intends to reduce the supply of oil from Iran by about 20%.
On Friday at 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States. To date, the number of active rigs in the United States is 834 active rigs, which is much lower than the maximum of 887 units, achieved at the end of 2018. The increase in the number of active drilling rigs will support oil prices.

On Thursday, WTI crude prices hit a high in 2019 near $58.67 a barrel, and oil prices continue to rise on the first half of the trading day on Friday.
In case of consolidation above the key support level of 58.60 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), further price growth is likely.
So far, WTI oil is trading above important support levels of 55.50 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 56.35 (ЕМА200 on weekly chart), 57.80 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that started in February 2016 from near the mark of 27.30), positive dynamics is maintained. Long positions are preferred.
In the case of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 57.10 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will resume with targets at the support levels of 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20.
Support Levels: 58.60, 57.80, 57.10, 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00
Resistance Levels: 59.00, 60.00, 62.00, 64.00, 65.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 56.90. Stop Loss 59.10. Take-Profit 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Buy Stop 59.10. Stop Loss 56.90. Take-Profit 60.00, 62.00, 64.00, 65.00

 

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S&P500: Current Situation
18/03/2019

Last week, the DJIA grew by 1.6%, the Nasdaq - by 3.8%, and the S&P 500 - by 2.9%, closing at the maximum levels of 2019. The growth leader in the S&P 500 for the current year remains the technology sector.
On Monday, the positive dynamics of US stock indices persisted, although their growth stopped. At the beginning of the European session, futures for the S&P500 index are traded near the mark of 2824.0. Today, the publication of important macro data is not expected, and, probably, US stock indexes will remain traded near the current levels. But on Wednesday you should be careful when trading stock indices and the dollar. Recall that at 18:00 (GMT) the Fed’s decision on the interest rate will be published, and at 18:30 (GMT) the Fed’s press conference will begin. During this period, a sharp increase in volatility in financial markets is likely. The soft rhetoric of Jerome Powell’s speech will further boost US stock indices.

At the end of January, the S&P500 index broke through key resistance levels of 2676.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), 2720.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), significantly recovered after falling in the 4th quarter of last year.
At the moment, the growth of US stock indexes and the S&P500 index continues. Investors are betting on further growth of indices against the background of a more stable position of the American economy in comparison with other major economies of the world.
at the beginning of the American session, the S&P500 is trading near the 2828.0 mark. The S&P500 maintains a positive trend, trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 2720.0.
Long positions are preferred. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 2796.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 2817.0, 2796.0, 2755.0, 2720.0, 2676.0, 2550.0, 2507.0, 2450.0, 2386.0, 2335.0
Resistance Levels: 2836.0, 2873.0, 2936.0

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 2794.0. Stop Loss 2838.0. Objectives 2755.0, 2720.0, 2676.0
Buy Stop 2838.0. Stop Loss 2794.0. Objectives 2873.0, 2936.0


 

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EUR/USD: Current dynamics
03/19/2019

The US dollar continues to decline on Tuesday. Investors expect that at a meeting on Wednesday, the Fed will demonstrate a propensity for a soft monetary policy. The decision on the Fed's interest rate will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT), and a press conference will begin at 18:30, at which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can clarify what the central bank is thinking about the economy and the prospects for monetary policy.
In recent weeks, Fed officials have made it clear that they are not in a hurry to change rates until the situation with the US economy is clear.
On Tuesday, futures for the DXY dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.83, down 76 points from the closing price last Friday.
Some market participants are betting that the Fed will not raise the rate until the end of the year and may even lower it if the situation in the economy and the US labor market deteriorates. This is a negative factor for the dollar. Expectations that rates do not rise usually put pressure on the dollar, making it less attractive to investors.

On Tuesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The top line of the descending channel on the daily chart also passes through the mark 1.1332, from which the release and return inside this channel is likely.
Downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of Eurodollar sales.
In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.
Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480


 

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EUR/USD: Fed meeting
03/20/2019

The dollar retains mainly the position before the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the decision on the interest rate of the Fed. On Wednesday, futures for the dollar index DXY, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.93, down 66 points from the closing price last Friday, but up 10 points from the closing price on Tuesday.
Market participants do not expect changes in monetary policy at this Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication of a rate decision and a press conference. Its beginning is scheduled for 18:30 (GMT).
Probably, the Fed will again declare patience, as well as lower forecasts for interest rates and US economic growth. It is possible that the leaders of the Fed will declare that the key rate has reached its peak. To restore funding for the US economy from abroad, the dollar must weaken.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump also repeatedly criticized the Fed’s monetary policy against the backdrop of low inflation in the country.
Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar may remain in the medium and long term against the backdrop of international trade wars, regardless of the actions of the Fed. The US economy still looks more stable than other major global economies.

On Wednesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the support level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Below this level, downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal to resume sales.
The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 that began in May 2014) will be the support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.
Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480


 

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GBP/USD: anxiety is growing in the markets
03/21/2019

On Thursday, the dollar is rising, recovering from a strong fall on Wednesday. DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the American session on Thursday traded near the level of 95.67, 32 points higher than the opening price of today.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland also retained their monetary policy unchanged. The decision of the SNB was published on Thursday at 08:30 GMT, and of the Bank of England at 12:00. The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0.75%, where it has been located since January 2015. It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%.
It is worth paying attention to the statement of the SNB, made by it after the meeting. The statement says that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts "is mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding the interest rates of key economic regions".
The Bank of England also predictably retained its monetary policy unchanged. The decision was made by all 9 votes of members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The bank’s statement says that “the outlook for the economy depends on how the UK leaves the EU”.
The pound almost did not respond to the decision of the Bank of England.
At the same time, anxiety is growing in the markets. Usually, the decision of the central bank of the United States, similar to the one adopted on Wednesday, would provoke growth in the stock markets, but this time the indices rose briefly and fell again. The yield on US government bonds reached 2.52%, the lowest level in a year, and the disappearing difference between long-term and short-term bonds indicates an increased likelihood of recession.
And yet, the demand for the dollar may remain in the situation of international trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy, regardless of the actions of the Fed. The US economy looks more stable than other major global economies.

At the same time, the negative dynamics in the GBP / USD pair is growing due to renewed uncertainty about Brexit.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the targets for further reduction will be the support levels of 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2660, 1.2600.
In the alternative scenario, and after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200), the GBP / USD growth will resume with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3400 ( the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3660 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Short positions in the current situation looks preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3050, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Resistance Levels: 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3090. Stop Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2590, 1.2480
Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660


 

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USD/CHF: Swiss National Bank did not change monetary policy
03/22/2019
Current dynamics

On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank took place, at which the bank maintained its monetary policy unchanged. The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0.75%, where it has been located since January 2015. It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%.
The bank’s statement said that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts “was mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding interest rates in key economic regions”.
This statement was partly confirmed on Friday, when the weak, much worse than forecast, macro data came out, indicating an acceleration of the slowdown of the European economy.
The Swiss franc reacted with restraint to the decision of the NBS, which traditionally considers the franc to be overbought, which does not allow for a more active increase in the growth rate of the Swiss economy. GDP in the 4th quarter grew by only 1.4%, as recently reported in the government of the country.
The economic barometer KOF in February fell by 3.8 points and amounted to 92.4, continuing to decline from the long-term average of 100. Since September last year, the index has lost 10 points. "We can expect that the Swiss economy will show weakness in the coming months", said the KOF Economic Research Agency report.
Most likely, the interest rate of the NBS will not change in the near future.
Soft monetary policy of the central bank usually contributes to keeping the national currency rate low. Nevertheless, the franc maintains stability in the foreign exchange market, receiving support from franc buyers, who traditionally use it as a protective asset during periods of heightened turbulence in financial markets and the uncertainty of the political situation in the world.
Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened significantly over the past two days after falling on Wednesday, when the Fed unexpectedly announced its propensity for a softer monetary policy.
At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY dollar index futures traded near the 96.20 mark, 103 points higher than the minimum reached on Wednesday.
From the news for today we are waiting for the publication (at 13:45 GMT) of the PMI indices from Markit Economics for the USA. The preliminary manufacturing PMI index is expected to be 53.6 in March (against 53.0 in February), while the composite PMI index is expected to be 55.2 against 55.5 in February.
Data worse than forecasts can trigger a fall in the dollar and the closure of long positions on it at the end of the week.

Support and Resistance Levels
At the beginning of the European session, the USD / CHF is trading near the level of 0.9945, through which the strong resistance level (EMA144 on the daily chart) passes.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions.
In the case of the breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9945, the growth of USD / CHF will continue, and the positive dynamics will again increase.
In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the key support level of 0.9920 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to the last wave of decline since November 2018 and from 1.0130), the negative dynamics will increase. A break of this level will increase the risks of breaking the USD / CHF uptrend.
Support Levels: 0.9920, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9785, 0.9745, 0.9720
Resistance Levels: 0.9945, 0.9970, 0.9990, 1.0005, 1.0050, 1.0090, 1.0130, 1.0160

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.9910. Stop Loss 0.9955. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9780, 0.9745, 0.9720
Buy Stop 0.9950. Stop Loss 0.9910. Take-Profit 0.9990, 1.0005, 1.0050, 1.0090, 1.0130, 1.0160


 

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EUR/USD: Current trend
03/25/2019

At the end of last week, the dollar fell, moreover, it was already the second week in a row of dollar decline.
Last Wednesday, when the Fed meeting ended, DXY dollar index futures, which valued the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, traded near the 95.17 mark, with a significant decrease to the closing price of the previous week.
The leaders of the American Central Bank unexpectedly stated that rates would not rise this year, and a one-time increase in interest rates may be next year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the policy of the Central Bank may remain unchanged for many months.
Some participants in the financial market are betting that the Fed may soon reach a rate cut, which has not happened since the 2008 financial crisis. According to the CME Group, futures for federal funds show that market participants estimate the likelihood of Fed rate cuts by the end of the year at 57%, which is 11% higher than a month earlier.
On Monday, the decline in the dollar resumed. DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 96.11 mark, 5 points lower than the opening price on Monday.
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD is recovering on Monday after a significant drop last Friday, when the PMI indices for Germany, France and the Eurozone were published.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German manufacturing sector, according to IHS Markit, fell to 44.7 in March from 47.6 in February, reaching the lowest level in more than 6.5 years. France's preliminary composite PMI dropped to 48.7 from 50.4 in February. An index value below 50 indicates slowdown and reduced activity. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1300 mark.
Below the resistance level of 1.1335 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts) only short positions are recommended. The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 that began in May 2014) will be the support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1335, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1210, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480


 

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NZD/USD develops upward momentum
03/26/2019

On the eve of the meeting of the RBNZ on the topic of monetary policy, the publication of data on the foreign trade of New Zealand was held. The Statistics Bureau of New Zealand reported on Tuesday that the trade surplus of the country in February amounted to 12 million New Zealand dollars (a deficit of 109 million New Zealand dollars was forecast). At the same time, exports amounted to $ 4.82 billion in February (compared with the forecast of 4.70 billion and the previous value of $ 4.33 billion).
Over the past two weeks, the New Zealand dollar has strengthened, which is associated by economists with optimism around the US-China trade negotiations.
The RBNZ interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday (01:00 GMT).
Probably, the rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. Market participants expect the rate of the RBNZ to remain at the current level throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020.

Meanwhile, NZD / USD is developing an upward trend above key support levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6815 (ЕМА200 on daily chart). Growth targets are at resistance levels of 0.6980 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7060 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 0.6815 and a decline to the support levels of 0.6750, 0.6700, which will increase the risk of NZD / USD returning to a bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6840, 0.6815, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Resistance levels: 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6885. Stop Loss 0.6925. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6840, 0.6815, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Buy Stop 0.6925. Stop Loss 0.6885. Take-Profit 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060


 

TifiaFX

Established member
641 0
NZD/USD: RBNZ softened the rhetoric
03/27/2019
Current Dynamics

The New Zealand dollar fell significantly on Wednesday after the RBNZ left the key rate at 1.75% and indicated the likelihood of interest rate cuts
According to the RBNZ, "the outlook for the global economy continues to deteriorate". "Given the deterioration in the prospects for the world economy and the weakening of the impulse of spending inside the country, the more likely direction of our key interest rate will be its decline", the RBNZ said in a statement. Now some economists predict that by the end of this year, the RBNZ will lower rates twice.

The NZD / USD fell by 1.6%, reaching a minimum near the level of 0.6793, breaking through the key support level of 0.6815 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts turned to short positions.
The negative scenario implies a further weakening of the New Zealand dollar, a breakdown of the support level of 0.6798 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a decline to the support levels of 0.6750, 0.6700.
The breakdown of these support levels will mean the return of NZD / USD to a bearish trend.
If NZD / USD resumes upward trend, then growth targets will be resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from 0.8800 level, which began in July 2014; wave minima are near 0.6260), 0.6935, 0.6980.
Support levels: 0.6798, 0.6750, 0.6700
Resistance levels: 0.6815, 0.6840, 0.6865, 0.6935, 0.6980

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6785. Stop Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Buy Stop 0.6825. Stop Loss 0.6785. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

 

TifiaFX

Established member
641 0
EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
03/28/2019

The dollar is rising again in the second half of the European session, and the EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1235 mark. At the same time, futures for the dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 96.64, 36 points higher than the closing price on Wednesday.
The US Federal Reserve last week also made it clear that this year it does not plan to raise rates.
Nevertheless, the US dollar is supported because of the deteriorating economic situation in Europe and the world, which makes investors more fearful of a slowdown in the global economy. In this situation, investors buy the dollar, because the United States is the largest economy in the world, from the end of 2017 ahead of other developed economies in terms of growth rates.
The American economy in the current situation looks more attractive.
On Thursday, market participants will pay attention to the publication (12:30 GMT) of the US annual GDP for the 4th quarter (final release). GDP data is one of the key (along with labor market and inflation data) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A strong result strengthens the US dollar; a weak GDP report adversely affects the US dollar. In the previous quarter, GDP growth was +3.4%. The forecast for 4Q 2018 +2.4%. Despite the relative decline, this is a strong indicator. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, the dollar will respond with a decrease.

Trading recommendations
EUR / USD is in a long-term bearish trend, trading lower for the second week in a row.
Below the key resistance levels 1.1420 (ЕМА144), 1.1470 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1210 (November lows) will be the levels of 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1325, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1470

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop Loss 1.1210. Take-Profit 1.1325, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1470


 

TifiaFX

Established member
641 0
GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
03/29/2019


On Friday, the British parliament will vote for the Brexit plan proposed by Theresa May for the third time, albeit in a truncated form. Voting will take place on one of the parts of the transaction, which spelled out such provisions as the rights of citizens, payments to the UK in the EU funds and measures to prevent the creation of a rigid border in Ireland.
If parliament votes in favor, the UK will leave the EU on May 22. If they don’t support it, then until April 12, London will have to offer an alternative agreement to Brussels.
This year, Parliament has twice rejected the plan for a deal with the EU proposed by Theresa May.
Voting in the British Parliament is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Any unexpected voting results or related comments may cause increased volatility in the GBP / USD.

In the meantime, the pair GBP / USD is trading near 1.3100, above the key support levels of 1.3060 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3035 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Breakdown of these support levels may trigger a deeper decline. The targets are at the support levels of 1.3035, 1.2970 (March lows), 1.2800 (February lows), 1.2700 (October and August 2018 lows).
The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3125 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will signal a resumption of purchases with targets at resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200) , 1.3370 (maximums of March and year), 1.3400 (upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3660 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3060, 1.3035, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Resistance Levels: 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3010. Stop Loss 1.3135. Take-Profit 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2590, 1.2480
Buy Stop 1.3135. Stop Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660

 
 
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