A deficit surplus dones't necessarily mean the road to recovery. It means, the Euro has lost its value, so they're able to export things at a cheaper price meaning more people will buy from Europeans. But that's not real growth because the value of their currency continues to fall. So there may be a trade surplus, but you are talking about a group of countries that rely on a fiat currency system to keep them afloat. What happens when interest rate rise, and the Euro gains strength? The trade deficits will rear their ugly heads in again, and government leeches will be wondering why there are so many lay offs going on. Europe, like the U.S. is heading for hyperinflation because their productive capacity has shrunk over the years.