TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

PL data for recently closed block of trades (EURAUD still open).

AUDJPY +78%
AUDUSD +84%
EURJPY +84%
EURUSD +178%
GBPJPY +66%
GBPUSD +72%
USDCAD +106%
USDJPY +132%
 
can you break one of these down, please? say EUR/USD: is +178% a percentage based on the original risk of the trade?

so 20 pips of risk yielded ~ 35 pips on EUR/USD drop?

TheBramble said:
PL data for recently closed block of trades (EURAUD still open).

AUDJPY +78%
AUDUSD +84%
EURJPY +84%
EURUSD +178%
GBPJPY +66%
GBPUSD +72%
USDCAD +106%
USDJPY +132%
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
c6ackp said:
can you break one of these down, please? say EUR/USD: is +178% a percentage based on the original risk of the trade?

so 20 pips of risk yielded ~ 35 pips on EUR/USD drop?
Click to expand...
When I have plenty of time ahead of the trade I detail the stop and even the targets. My methods should be fairly clear by now.

When I get a whole slew of signals all at the same time like I did at 14:00 (London) when I had 9 live signals on my screens and I was already managing 2 of them, if there’s no obvious triage, I’ll take a swing at them all with my default settings. I trade 2% of my total trading capital risk per trade with a default stop of 50 pips (Most of my trades are 20-30 pip stop size so this is more than adequate just to get me into the trade. It will mean my position size is smaller than it would be had I had time to properly profile the opportunity, but that’s a small price to pay when the price is moving fast).

It also means I’m not going to take the time to post each individual trade with entry, stop and targets. I did my best to just get them all out to you at the time and did so for all of them within a 4 minute window while simultaneously placing the trades live.

I’ve already detailed the entry levels I got and all but the EURAUD is now closed.

So, to answer your question:_

AUDJPY in Short at 14:04 (London) at 77.66. Exit at 15:25 (London) at 77.27. Based on an initial position where the default 2% of my capital was risked yielded a +39 pips gain on the position. 39/50 = 78%. So a nominal 78% return on my risk, your risk, anybody’s risk. In my case my real risk was 2% of my total trading capital and I made a +78% profit on that 2% risked which for me equates to a +1.56% real gain on starting capital for the day from this one trade. I use the nominal gain as it’s easier to compare and compute. If anyone was trading only 1% of their capital per trade, they would have made a gain of 0.78%of their starting capital on this one trade. If you were treading 5% of total capital per trade, you’d have made 3.9% increase on your starting capital on this one trade.

Obviously, all the other data was worked in precisely the same way.
 
For those interested in the P&L side of things rather (or as well as) the trading methods used, discounting the currently open EURAUD trade (when will I learn with this pair?) I’ve managed a gain of 853% against a loss of 200% on my standard risk of 2% per trade today. A nominal gain of 635%. Also need to take into account yesterday’s fun & games where I dropped a nominal 200%. Which means my running nominal P&L is +435% which equates to a real gain of 8.7% on my starting capital of yesterday.
 
TheBramble said:
For those interested in the P&L side of things rather (or as well as) the trading methods used, discounting the currently open EURAUD trade (when will I learn with this pair?) I’ve managed a gain of 853% against a loss of 200% on my standard risk of 2% per trade today. A nominal gain of 635%. Also need to take into account yesterday’s fun & games where I dropped a nominal 200%. Which means my running nominal P&L is +435% which equates to a real gain of 8.7% on my starting capital of yesterday.
Click to expand...

nice trading, brambs
 
TheBramble said:
Need to put it in context with yesterday's performance and average it out to barely Muppet levels of skill, but thanks anyway jon.
Click to expand...

no, all round I meant - yesterday about disciplined losing, today about taking profits (if you see what I mean)
 
At last. EURAUD stopped out. Managed to move the stop up 5 pips after entry to 2925 (posted at the time), so loss was a nominal -90% of risk which equates to a real loss for me of -1.8%.

If anyone spots me trying to trade EURAUD again this week, please ask the mods to ban me.
 
German GDP data due in just under 20 mins. Expectations are for no change. I find that a little difficult to understand as the data which has come in over my desk suggest there was a small increase.

There's a swathe of other German data also at 07:00 (London) and then a fairly continuous stream of EUR data all the way up to 09:00. Then the GBP data kicks in at 09:30. Should get some early London session action which normally means I'm not in the market.

Either way, it'll likely upset the Frankfurt end of the Daily Frankfurt-London Agreement so I'll be placing less reliance on those particular SR levels this session.
 
Thursday May 24th 2012

Short-term FX Pair Bias based on trading the m15 TF

AUDJPY/AUDUSD – Shorts

EURAUD – go to hell MF….(technically Shorts; in reality a nasty, fund thieving, shifty little bar squared)
EURCAD/EURGBP/EURJPY/EURUSD – Shorts

GBPCHF – Longs
GBPJPY/GBOUSD – Shorts

USDCAD/USDCHF – Longs
USDJPY – no clarity short-term. Technically down, but on the cusp of Venus passing Uranus.
 
I know we're only talking Short term on this thread, but...

A lot of your time, when you’re a big boy, is spent reading, researching, analysing and networking both in-house and with in-country sources. Thinking a couple of decades ahead is intense and intellectually stimulating work. But once a week typically, you’ll want to check your more mundane speculative holdings and potentially re-balance and adjust your portfolio. Wednesday/Thursday is a particularly good day for this and it also gives you an excuse to go into the office. There’s less traffic on the road and fewer of the great unwashed travelling in by train, and it means it doesn’t cut in to your long weekends. Midweek is also a popular shopping day for high-end totty which makes Mayfair an altogether more pleasant location to have to haul your immaculately tailored ass into.

Most portfolios do have an element of speculative FX and while it will be consisted primarily of futures, there is also a significant utilisation of spot to take both outrights and hedge. While we at the coal face sweat out every twitch to and fro, you only have to switch to a Daily chart, and imagine looking at that once every 5 bars or so, to get the idea of what they’re looking at too. Good time to add, take some off, wait for it to come back a bit (20 EMA? You’re kidding?). Hint #1: They don’t make life difficult for themselves. Hint #2: They mostly tend to think the same way.
 
Re: I know we're only talking Short term on this thread, but...

TheBramble said:
A lot of your time, when you’re a big boy, is spent reading, researching, analysing and networking both in-house and with in-country sources. Thinking a couple of decades ahead is intense and intellectually stimulating work. But once a week typically, you’ll want to check your more mundane speculative holdings and potentially re-balance and adjust your portfolio. Wednesday/Thursday is a particularly good day for this and it also gives you an excuse to go into the office. There’s less traffic on the road and fewer of the great unwashed travelling in by train, and it means it doesn’t cut in to your long weekends. Midweek is also a popular shopping day for high-end totty which makes Mayfair an altogether more pleasant location to have to haul your immaculately tailored ass into.

Most portfolios do have an element of speculative FX and while it will be consisted primarily of futures, there is also a significant utilisation of spot to take both outrights and hedge. While we at the coal face sweat out every twitch to and fro, you only have to switch to a Daily chart, and imagine looking at that once every 5 bars or so, to get the idea of what they’re looking at too. Good time to add, take some off, wait for it to come back a bit (20 EMA? You’re kidding?). Hint #1: They don’t make life difficult for themselves. Hint #2: They mostly tend to think the same way.
Click to expand...

Nice thread B ......nice thread (y)
 
Nice pullbacks on USDCAD & USDCHF. USD data in 90 mins.

USDCAD 0223 (right now) look good for potential Support. NO signals yet.
USDCHF appearing to find Support on Today’s Open 9544 (right now). NO signals yet.






edit 12:21 I meant 0233 for USDCAD which is precisely where it was when I made initial post.
 
Last edited:
Clarification: I’ve had a load of technical entry setups& signals, but none taken due to news based volatility and belief in lack of commitment to follow through, which pretty much has been the case.
 
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