Article The Return of The Bear – Part 1

[T2W Bot]

Introduction –
There are occurrences in the business cycle when the consensus of my proprietary primary trend indicators find themselves within the confines of the bearish camp. Unfortunately, now seems to be one of those occasions. The last time the technical, economic, and monetary indicators aligned themselves in such a negative way was the turn of the millennium. Then, as now, for the benefit of my subscribers, and their valued clients and investments, I feel duty-bound to publish a Special Report setting out the arguments for the impending scene about to unfold.
In early 2000 it like the market was at, or close to, a secular or very long-term peak (albeit if not in absolute price terms, certainly in inflation-adjusted ones). Since then, the S&P has failed to take out its 2000 high; and deflated for commodity prices, actually came extremely close to a new (secular) bear market low in May of 2006.
Before setting out the current cycle?s negative case though, we must...

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[bracke]

KISS this is not.

A number of factors and comparisons are made but I found the article complicated and difficult to agree or disagree with.

I get the impression (rightly or wrongly) that whatever the market does this article could be used ( in hindsight) to forecast the move.

This is not an article I would use to illustrate the benefit of charts.

Regards

bracke

 

[dbphoenix]

We are not always required to agree or disagree. Nor are we always required to "make calls". Sometimes we are called upon to do nothing more than listen. And think.

 

[charliechan]

bracke -

ta explained (by pring) was one of the first trading books of mine when i started on the screens. its ok if you like ta. i dont (much). havent read the article, but a lot of ta stuff is based around 'look at what you coulda won' (said in my best jim bowen voice) imo.

 

[chump]

Martin Pring is invariably worthy of consideration with his views. For anyone who wishes to take that article deeper they could do so by reading either of the following books;
Valuing wall Street -The Q Ratio by Smithers & Wright
This book takes a much deeper look behind the P/E ratio mentioned by Mr Pring and again fits it into historical context. Bear in mind that book was written before the millenium bust.
Anatomy of the Bear - by Russell Napier
Wonderful book that looks at all of the historic bear markets and their surrounding periods in terms of stocks,bonds,commodities , monetary policy and parochial evidence.

I'm sure a lot of very short term traders are going to say how does this help me trade. Well if you're any good at what you do you will have built up a reasonable level of asset value unattached to whatever you use for your daily pot. If you wish to keep it the above would be a good place to start.

10/10 for Martin Pring ,I would have given it more were that possible.

 

[TheBramble]

Well if you're any good at what you do you will have built up a reasonable level of asset value unattached to whatever you use for your daily pot. If you wish to keep it the above would be a good place to start.

Don't want to divert/hijack this thread, and have no comment to make on Pring's article, but couldn't miss the opportunity of addressing this point of yours chump. Raised it myself a few days back.

At what point do successful traders consider they are consistent? And at that point, looking at their ROI and what else is available - if, as you say, they're any good - what possible sense can it make to continue to hang onto the concept of a balanced portfolio?

I have yet to totally divest myself of the idea that it is 'the thing to do', but I can't justify much longer the basis for maintaining anything other than a one, single lump of day-trading capital which represents my total speculative/investment capability - other than that which I wish to maintain for personal reasons and for utilitarian purposes.

I'm really struggling with this as it doesn't seems sensible not to - yet years of sensible and appropriate building and balancing of funds across a spectrum of investment vehicles are a hard habit to break.

 

[bracke]

dbp - Thank you for your comments they are always appreciated, often agreed with, and actioned accordingly.

It was not apparent from your post if you considered that the article had direct relevance bearing in mind your method of trading. If you consider that it does it would be interesting to read how you combine it with price/volume.

charliechan - I am keen on ta but query the applicable practical value of what is discussed in the article.

chump - see my reply to charlie chan.

Regards

bracke

 

[chump]

My comment doesn't apply to you Tony ,anyone with less than the price of a bag of sweeties does not need to be concerned with the issues of asset management.

 

[TWI]

Many years ago I read "Pring on Technical Analysis" when offered an interview at a futures fund having worked at a commodity house via a grad scheme for 3 years and never really looked at a chart. I realised my only hope was to b/s my way into the fund by talking knowledgably about technicals. I read the book prior to interview and It worked. I therefore thank Mr Pring for helping me get started in this business as well as starting me off in a technically focussed direction that has paid plenty of dividends since.
I did not bother reading the article.

 

[fxmarkets]

The Return Of Something Beginning With "B" anyway. Part 2 Is "S" no doubt.

hmm, this stuff is good for fuelling the biz I suppose, lines twitchin here, oversold ding dong there etc.. (insert dbp squiggly blue lines off the chart posting , triggering conditioned/reflex action from humans post) Pring seems to be measuring/focusing effect of traders (too slow or hmm presents an image encouraging or an attempt to aid some sort of decision process for the "typical" individual trader but most ,I guess, will not be happy with things deep down.) and not the cause as with most TA hence all usual TA generally appears to go to buggery at times.

As can happen with thoughts not being thought about ,they just surface from time to time, to sum up with this type of Traditional ? TA, the term Reactive Analysis pop's up.

Well done twalker for the blag.

Pring, keep on pumpin it. The industry continually needs it.

Cheers All.

Fx.