barjon
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dbphoenix BTW said:Db
Well it started off as planning- in the sense of planning one's reaction to the market. If it does X I'll do Y and so on. Amazing the highways and byways that these topics explore (particularly on a wet Sunday afternoon) :cheesy:
Probably move it when we're done if the psychology holds sway.
jon
peterpr
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Well thanks for clearing that one up. Very odd useage if I may say so. Never come acrosss it before. But since you also used it in reply to one of my posts, my response is that I was NOT nit picking about either style or substance. I was simply correcting your clear mis-reading of the one very simple proposition I have made on this thread.kriesau said:
My entry into trading was a trainee futures broker in an unrealized at the time bucket shop. The question that loomed largest for me was why did prices rise, why did prices fall. Another trainee walked in one day in 1982 with the book ‘Elliott Wave Principle : Key to Market Behavior' by Frost and Prechter, and that became the basis of my analysis of Price Movement answering for me the rise and fall of prices.
When first posting on forums I ‘fell into’ predicting since so many posts are related to the future prices of instruments, but now concentrate on posting technique which does contain ‘targets’.
In my terms I believe what Dbphoenix refers to is the distinction between the Professional trader/investor versus the amateur – Professional ‘anything’ v amateur.
"technical market movers" I find are best dealt with the Close rather than H - L of price bars. In general the release of economic reports results in this major mix of trades: 1: The Bets – entered prior to the release results in the subsequent price/trades reaction 2: reaction trades following the release. In other words the more incorrect The Bets the greater the price reaction, or, how far off the Consensus was from the Actual data; note that several reports can be purchased 5 minutes prior to their release; see also:
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/_showthread/_s-/_threadid-8080 , and sometimes, the application of EW will anticipate what the price will do at such releases.
Finally, to the heart of the discussion on ‘prediction’, email from a friend:
“I can heartily recommend Lars Tvede's book on the psychology behind financial markets. Whenever we're invested in something (with money, pride, intellectually etc.), we start thinking with our feelings. When reality starts proving us wrong, we get a discrepancy between reality and our emotional stance which leads to ‘Cognitive Dissonance’.
At this point, we stop looking at evidence pointing to the opposite of what we want to see (selection bias). Then we start projecting our beliefs onto news, charts, systems etc. (perception bias). Finally, when reality can be denied no more, we take the hit and start telling ourselves that we knew it all along and that we'll never make this mistake again (hindsight bias a.k.a. Monday morning quarterbacking). We cannot escape these faults since they lie at the core of being human, but we can become more aware of them.
Losses are not connected with shame and lack of skills, it's a normal cost of being in this business. I used to take losses horribly personally and I would often take huge losses, because I couldn't take small losses. I'm getting much better at accepting that I can't always be right and get out of my position while the setback is still minor. I think trading is one long struggle with your own cognitive apparatus – which is trying to ruin you.”
When first posting on forums I ‘fell into’ predicting since so many posts are related to the future prices of instruments, but now concentrate on posting technique which does contain ‘targets’.
In my terms I believe what Dbphoenix refers to is the distinction between the Professional trader/investor versus the amateur – Professional ‘anything’ v amateur.
"technical market movers" I find are best dealt with the Close rather than H - L of price bars. In general the release of economic reports results in this major mix of trades: 1: The Bets – entered prior to the release results in the subsequent price/trades reaction 2: reaction trades following the release. In other words the more incorrect The Bets the greater the price reaction, or, how far off the Consensus was from the Actual data; note that several reports can be purchased 5 minutes prior to their release; see also:
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/_showthread/_s-/_threadid-8080 , and sometimes, the application of EW will anticipate what the price will do at such releases.
Finally, to the heart of the discussion on ‘prediction’, email from a friend:
“I can heartily recommend Lars Tvede's book on the psychology behind financial markets. Whenever we're invested in something (with money, pride, intellectually etc.), we start thinking with our feelings. When reality starts proving us wrong, we get a discrepancy between reality and our emotional stance which leads to ‘Cognitive Dissonance’.
At this point, we stop looking at evidence pointing to the opposite of what we want to see (selection bias). Then we start projecting our beliefs onto news, charts, systems etc. (perception bias). Finally, when reality can be denied no more, we take the hit and start telling ourselves that we knew it all along and that we'll never make this mistake again (hindsight bias a.k.a. Monday morning quarterbacking). We cannot escape these faults since they lie at the core of being human, but we can become more aware of them.
Losses are not connected with shame and lack of skills, it's a normal cost of being in this business. I used to take losses horribly personally and I would often take huge losses, because I couldn't take small losses. I'm getting much better at accepting that I can't always be right and get out of my position while the setback is still minor. I think trading is one long struggle with your own cognitive apparatus – which is trying to ruin you.”
roguetrader
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Actually kriesau's definition of the phrase is quite accurate in common usage today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_retentive
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_retentive
SOCRATES
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I have just come into the room again, because this interests me greatly.
You see, market reality is something they cannot get to grips with.
Self governance is something they have enormous difficulty in achieving, if at all.
You are really on a hiding to nothing with this one, I'm afraid.
Because it is easy to talk about these things in a public forum, but in reality,
it is immensely difficult for ordinary people to do.
You see, market reality is something they cannot get to grips with.
Self governance is something they have enormous difficulty in achieving, if at all.
You are really on a hiding to nothing with this one, I'm afraid.
Because it is easy to talk about these things in a public forum, but in reality,
it is immensely difficult for ordinary people to do.
Good morning everyone,
Can I say what a great discussion this has turned out to be, and I would like to thank all contributors.
There is a great deal to think about, and hopefully, lessons for us all.
I am hoping that soon I will have the self discipline to consider that Socrates Post 48 does not apply to me ! ( i.e. I will be "in tune" with market reality)
regards, G McA
Can I say what a great discussion this has turned out to be, and I would like to thank all contributors.
There is a great deal to think about, and hopefully, lessons for us all.
I am hoping that soon I will have the self discipline to consider that Socrates Post 48 does not apply to me ! ( i.e. I will be "in tune" with market reality)
regards, G McA
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gmca686 said:
I'm sure that you are already, as most of us on this thread are too, albiet to varying degrees. As far as I am concerned RT's posts # 4 & 6 together with Barjons post # 18 exemplify the reality as it applies to most people on this thread.
This is all now getting a bit into the realms of navel gazing and that has attracted the unwelcome attention of a particular individual whose pseudo - intellectual pretensions are a complete anathema to me. I ignored his original interjections but he is now clearly getting into his stride so I will leave you to his incoherent ramblings.
TheBramble
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Lord! Give me strength!!!Mr. Charts said:
TheBramble
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Great (as usualMr. Charts said:
) Richard. But what has this to do with the Perils of Prediction? Where was the Prediciton? What was the Peril? Or did you just get it all right - again?
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SOCRATES
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Bramble you began to explain the outline principles of a black box, but you did not go on to develop it. It may be an idea for you to discuss that further. it is a topic that fascinates many people, because there have been rumours circulating for years that such a thing has already been developed and kept very quiet.
If that is the case there is no doubt one day it will become freely available. There appears to be no timescale on this and all information is not complete. Would you think that given all the parameters even the idea of the trader's intervention might be unnecessary rendering the idea self contained and automatic ? This would be a wonderful bonus.
If that is the case there is no doubt one day it will become freely available. There appears to be no timescale on this and all information is not complete. Would you think that given all the parameters even the idea of the trader's intervention might be unnecessary rendering the idea self contained and automatic ? This would be a wonderful bonus.
TheBramble
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As you've asked Socrates I'll confirm - there is such a thing, yes.
But it's not a black box. It's a white box.
For those unfamiliar with the terms a black box is one that performs a function without any knowledge of what goes on inside the box.
Input===>Black Box===>Output.
A white box is one which the inner workings are clear to those with the ability, knowledge, skill etc to understand them.
Same process:- Input===>White Box===>Output, but no secrets or hidden workings, smoke or mirrors.
But it's all a question of ability, knowledge, skill. If you know nothing about automobiles except how to start one, drive one and stop one - it's effectively a black box system.
If you're mechanically minded and are interested in electrical work and electronics as well, the car becomes less of a black box and more of a white box.
If you're referring to those trading systems which are marketed as black box - they are deliberately designed as such and tend not to be worth the effort involved in finding out what was inside in the first place.
I suspect there are many fully or semi-automated trading systems being employed by independents globally. I wont cite the big boys' systems as they are a raggle taggle bunch with massively differing levels of success. E.G. The Major Banks FX and Trading teams are universally crap.
No, I don't use one nor would I.
In relation to the 'Perils of Prediction' - caveat emptor. Any black box system you use will control you to the extent it is black. The whiter you can make is the extent to which you will increase your control.
The thing is, some would prefer to keep as many things black box as possible in order to save their brain for more important tasks.
Does this help?
But it's not a black box. It's a white box.
For those unfamiliar with the terms a black box is one that performs a function without any knowledge of what goes on inside the box.
Input===>Black Box===>Output.
A white box is one which the inner workings are clear to those with the ability, knowledge, skill etc to understand them.
Same process:- Input===>White Box===>Output, but no secrets or hidden workings, smoke or mirrors.
But it's all a question of ability, knowledge, skill. If you know nothing about automobiles except how to start one, drive one and stop one - it's effectively a black box system.
If you're mechanically minded and are interested in electrical work and electronics as well, the car becomes less of a black box and more of a white box.
If you're referring to those trading systems which are marketed as black box - they are deliberately designed as such and tend not to be worth the effort involved in finding out what was inside in the first place.
I suspect there are many fully or semi-automated trading systems being employed by independents globally. I wont cite the big boys' systems as they are a raggle taggle bunch with massively differing levels of success. E.G. The Major Banks FX and Trading teams are universally crap.
No, I don't use one nor would I.
In relation to the 'Perils of Prediction' - caveat emptor. Any black box system you use will control you to the extent it is black. The whiter you can make is the extent to which you will increase your control.
The thing is, some would prefer to keep as many things black box as possible in order to save their brain for more important tasks.
Does this help?
SOCRATES
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Yes indeed Bramble, it clarifies a lot. This is because you hear rumours all the time about these things.
Your explanations serve to clear any misundersting about this. Many thanks. Another term bandied about is the concept of PodG Logic, have you come across this at all ? People who purport to know anything about it instantly clam up when it is mentioned, almost as if you brought up the subject of Area 51 or likewise. It is sort of in a twilight zone that is very intriguing.
Your explanations serve to clear any misundersting about this. Many thanks. Another term bandied about is the concept of PodG Logic, have you come across this at all ? People who purport to know anything about it instantly clam up when it is mentioned, almost as if you brought up the subject of Area 51 or likewise. It is sort of in a twilight zone that is very intriguing.
commanderco
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I am going to make a prediction about forex futures for this week
Firstly, while I have no idea what the currencies are going to do, I confidentally predict that they will do something.
Therefore, if they go up and show similar traits of volatility as they have shown consistently in the past, I shall enter my sell stop.
I will do the opposite if they fall, bearing in mind that upper and lower volatility haven proven to be quite different.
If my stops are hit, I predict that I shall pray that the currencies turn in my favour.
Sooner rather than later always suits me better.
Will I make money ?....I can confidentally predict that I have no idea.
The fact that 80%+ of my traps have been profitable and another 10% exit at breakeven ( more or less), is no guarantee that this week will be profitable as the little buggers are tricky at the best of times.
I can also predict that God willing, Copa Air will honor my e tickets and my Wife and I will be off for a month to Panama & Costa Rica where I shall hopefully continue to trap the little buggers to pay for the trip
Firstly, while I have no idea what the currencies are going to do, I confidentally predict that they will do something.
Therefore, if they go up and show similar traits of volatility as they have shown consistently in the past, I shall enter my sell stop.
I will do the opposite if they fall, bearing in mind that upper and lower volatility haven proven to be quite different.
If my stops are hit, I predict that I shall pray that the currencies turn in my favour.
Sooner rather than later always suits me better.
Will I make money ?....I can confidentally predict that I have no idea.
The fact that 80%+ of my traps have been profitable and another 10% exit at breakeven ( more or less), is no guarantee that this week will be profitable as the little buggers are tricky at the best of times.
I can also predict that God willing, Copa Air will honor my e tickets and my Wife and I will be off for a month to Panama & Costa Rica where I shall hopefully continue to trap the little buggers to pay for the trip
TheBramble
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Yes. Joe Ross uses it extensively in his black box systems.SOCRATES said:
And HarB and TheDunce may have some additional info for you...
