The New Commodities Trader (SOY MEAL)

Mr.J-Arthur

Well-known member
Messages
455
Likes
15
Hello all,

I'm going to be trading commodities now instead of stocks. I've traded 100oz contacts of gold, but I've decided to join the soy meal crowd.

Does anyone else here trade soy meal on a daily basis? The only down fall seems to be the modest volume. I havent heard much about soy meal and I'm not a farmer, just a speculator who's looking to make a fortune (y)

What draws me to this product is the high leverage. Each .01 tick = $10.
So a $25 gain would be a $25,000 gain. Or $1=$1,000.
I know some products have even more leverage, but this is just right.

Any insight on this product? Any active soy meal traders? Tips?
 
i suspect that many UK based members will either have been asleep or in the pub when you posted, give 'em a chance mate .....
 
I'll fly over to London one of these days after I make a hefty stake.
Rathcoole, do you engage in futures trading?

I'll have to post my trading plan tomorrow, it's looking pretty solid, but I could use some advice..
off to bed for now!

Cheers mate
 
I'll fly over to London one of these days after I make a hefty stake.
Rathcoole, do you engage in futures trading?

I'll have to post my trading plan tomorrow, it's looking pretty solid, but I could use some advice..
off to bed for now!

Cheers mate

yep i trade e-mini S&P and mini-YM, currency futures, gold, oil and Ags.

I'm in Asia, so 12 hours ahead of exchange time in Chicago .....
 
RC,

Asleep in the pub.

Mr J-Arthur,

It's obvious you're not English as you wouldn't use the 'J-Arthur' as a name.

Grant.
 
RC,

Bit slow on the uptake today - a septic going for a J Arthur.

Grant.
 
What the heck is a Septic? I'm not familiar with that term. Is it a slang word that the english use? :LOL: I'm from the states mate, trying to blend in here and assimilate!
When you say septic, I think of a SEPTIC TANK! haha, you know, it holds poo.

Rath-whatcha doing in Asia? Vacation or is that your home? or are you a nomadic trader?

Well anyways, onto a more constructive topic. I want to share my revised trading plan.
I still need to test it out to see if I can make a consistent profit actively trading every day.

"Boom or Bust" Trading Plan

Indicators:
2 sets of SMAs
-10 min and 18 min SMA
-2 min and 5 min

The indicators signal entry points, as well as exits. When all averages come together and/or point in a clear up/down trend then a trade can be entered (either short sell or going long, but I'm long biased).

The shorter time frame will allow me to get into a position sooner to anticipate a trend.
But, from looking at the charts with both sets of averages I learned that the best trades have all averages moving upwards (for going long).

Stop Loss:
Stops will be placed at acceptable amt. of loss @ 1-2% of account and trailing stops will be used to protect profit.

Profit taking:
I will take prof. when a trend becomes exhausted and the moving averages move against me. Also, profit taking can occur on exaggerated spikes because there is usually a good re-entry point.

Other general Rules:

1. Do not go long when 10/18 SMA points/opens toward the downside

2. Do go long when 2/5 SMA and 10/18 SMA point up

3. Do anticipate when all averages point in favor of a strong long/short

Products I will trade:

I plan to focus on Soy Meal first, but I have traded 100oz gold so I'll be watching the other products. Soy Meal is nice because every .01=$10, so every $1 gain=$1,000 in my pocket :clap:

and then, after a couple of weeks, I might go on vacation....anyone been to Barbados? I hear it's very nice there. Or Jamaica :cheesy:

post your comments, trading plans, or constructive criticisms
Cheers!
 
J-A,
I fear you may end up getting stopped out a lot, for me both pairs of MAs are too close together.

If you research something like Captain Currency's 3 Ducks system*, you'll see he uses a 60MA on a 4hour chart, a 1 hour chart and then triggered on a 5 minutes chart.
That's the same principle as you are trying for, but 3 Ducks has a good hit rate, doesn't overtrade and is easy to manage visually.

3 Ducks also helps plan your trade - something I am very passionate about. For me your potential downfall lies in the riskiest area - "anticipating the trend". IMHO thats the fastest way to the poorhouse.
Most of my trading now is with Buy Stop orders (we'll concentrate on the Long side as that you're stated preference, although I happen to love Shorts)
Using Buy Stops allows me to place an order at a point where I believe that price is confirming its own movement.
If you use market or Limit orders, you're basically saying to the market "i am wiser than you, i can predict when you will turn, therefore turn you must"
I prefer to say "O great Market, i have no idea which way you are heading, but should you touch my Buy Stop, that will mean you have already significantly turned around, and perhaps there is a possibility that you may continue in this new direction for a little while longer; may I hop aboard Sir ?"

As an example, you believe that a downtrend is about to turn Up. (whatever signal you use**)

Say price is now at 875 and you want to go Long at 873, you ordinarily place a Limit at 873 or go Market at 873.
If you get triggered, you have to rely on a huge change of gravity, to shift the trend from down to up - remember that although your technique gave the signal, there is no guarantee the market will listen to it.
If your're wrong you get out at say 869 for a loss of 4,
if you're right you get out at say 885 for a gain of 12
people will tell you that that's admirable R:R

I prefer however, to place my Buy Stop at say 876, so I only get triggered (spikes, pro-fades, stop-hunting etc aside) once price rises back UP through 874,875,876 Wouldn't that give you more confidence that price was moving in your direction ?
Okay, taking a profit at the same target at 885 reduces your potential profit to only 9 points instead of 12 ***

The beauty of this technique is that if you're wrong about the turnaround in trend, you just keep lowering your Buy Stop point as prices keeps going down, so you're exposed to the potential of a trigger without incurring drawdown.

listen, it's not infallible, once triggered there's nothing that stops price turning right round again and heading south, in which case your loss would be 876-869, 7 points instead of 4
but i have found it's better, for me personally at least, to have Momentum on my side while I hop aboard, rather than trying to anticipate a juggernaught turning around.

* whenever I try to "teach" any new trader, I always start them off now on 3 Ducks. Often times, it's all anyone will ever need
** personally i mostly just use Pivot points and/or divergence
*** although I tend to go rampant once my initial Buy is triggered and I keep placing Buy Stop orders just ahead, so eventually I may have (885-876)+(885-877)+(885-878) etc etc

try it, if you like it, great. if you don't like it, I'm too far away for you come and smack me .... :)
 
I use Stop Limit orders too. Where can I find the 3 duck system? Just search the forums for those key words?
 
Oh I found the 3 duck system.

My setup was able to catch the 918-930 in gold today, BUT my data feed "glitched" and I did not want to buy in unless I could see the charts. My broker is Thinkorswim and everyone else has been complaining too. It's totally wack.

Oh well, I'll try tomorrow.
 
Top