The Myth of the Significance of Performance

Sigma-D

Established member
648 62
Positive expectancy as a a basis for determination of trading success is deeply flawed. It does not take into account the impact of the probability of successive losses nor where they might occur in the set of in sample trades.

That's the least of traders' worries when it comes to performance profiles.

Very few technical traders manage t leave their systems alone long enough to produce a statistically significant set of data. The apparent need to tweak nullifies all past data and draws a line under all past results making them meaningless.
 
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Chad Seven

Active member
194 13
Positive expectancy as a a basis for determination of trading success is deeply flawed. It does not take into account the impact of the probability of successive losses nor where they might occur in the set of in sample trades.

That's the least of traders' worries when it comes to performance profiles.

Very few technical traders manage t leave their systems alone long enough to produce a statistically significant set of data. The apparent need to tweak nullifies all past data and draws a line under all past results making them meaningless.

You've been reading my journal, haven't you?
 
 
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