The Fx London Open

[danarm]

Hi all

Trust everyone is well...

My philosophy in trading is TO keep it simple and stick to your trading plan...

I use a 200ma & 50ma simple and a 20ma exponential...The 21CCi and 10CCI are key as well for trends...

I work off a Daily, 60min and 15min charts for specific entry points.

The 1st point is to always remember where you are compared to to your 200ma. This is critical and the greater the distance you are away from the 200ma the greater the chance of an aggressive pullback to the 200ma.

There are 3 stages in a move...

1) The drive away from the 200ma..Use the 20 and 50ma as a support or resistance.

2) The pullback and break of 20ma and 50ma..This is what we call the Box strategy when the candles are boxed between the 200ma and the 50ma... Be careful here as u never truely know the exact support and resistance levels... However the 50% retracement rule is key here and calculate this before every trade... Look at the GBPJPY chart below... The 1st higher low before the break of the 20ma was key and then the break of the 50ma for a 50% move, then a retacement for a 123 setup and a bounce off the 50ma for a pullback to the 200ma....

3) At the point of return to the 200ma is key..This is the resting point and you need to wait for a clear move for the direction... The 21CCI is key here and on every time frame the 21 CCI shows me the trend...

Recently with the markets being so bad i have had to move onto the 15min on the currencies for entry points so i can grab at least 25 points on each trade on the london open...

I have specialised on this for ages and it definitely works...

I focus on pairings of CHF's , GBP, EUR's and then JPY's and when these pairs move together i then look for the best setup and then trade the 2,3 or 4 pairs and this tends to bank me quite a bit each am from 6.30 am to 10am...

There is a little bit more to it and i will cover it later but that is the idea...

Thats a start for now...

Will post each day around midday...

Good luck

 

[Stuart14]

Thanks for posting your strat.

 

[FX Pimp]

Hi All.

FX Pimp here, doing his funky thing.

I'll be posting my brief morning analysis here each mornng, and trying to get to grips with the likely direction of the FXMajors, Gold, Crude & Indices.


Made a few quid shorting GBPJPY this morning using the above strategies so I know they work. I've been using Dan's strategy for quite a while now. Get it right and it's very powerful.

Feel free to ask me qusetions about the methods of our madness.

I can't emphasize enough how important it is to look at the CCI levels.
I will NOT go long with a much higher than a +50 reading, or short with a reading of much lower than -50. Why?
Well, the 0.0 is pretty much the m.a of that period, so selling with a reading of -150 on your 84CCI represents 150 units away from your 84 m.a (60m 20 on a 15m chart).
Since the 60m 20ema is your main immediate resistance level, why go short with that some 70 pips away?
Play off that level (CCI at 0.0) and your stop loss is much more sensible and the elastic band on that ema alone is that much more relaxed.

It's unfortunate that these lessons are being learnt the expensive way, but who wants to play USDCHF with a 70 pip stop ? Not me.
So I miss a few good set-ups, but the ones I do get into tend to represent a much higher probability trade.

Do some back testing on the 60m chart with the 21 (15m 84) and 84 (4hr 21).
When these are both near to the 0.0 is when we get the big moves and when they are both -100 or -200 is when we see most falls reversing.

I attach a chart to demonstrate this perfectly with a 60m Chart.
The green vertical lines show the overbought CCI's and the red vertical lines show the oversold CCI's.
Even with NO m.a's one can see how it's possible to trade these levels in the opposite direction and therefore, not advisable to be jumping in short just because both are down or long because both are up.

That's the Pimp-Trick of the day. I hope it serves you well.:innocent:

 

[Stuart14]

So what are your entry and exit indicators? Just trying to get my head around this one?

 

[FX Pimp]

Stuart. It's a combination of a few things really. Playing with the trend for example on the cross of the 21CCI.

As the picure shows, the main trend is down on the bottom CCI so we're looking for shorts only when the CCI retraces over the 0.0 then cuts back below.

It IS Dan's strategy AND his thread. I've known Dan and his methods for some time and certainly not trying to steal his show. We trade together for a couple of hours each morning.

 

[Stuart14]

They are the same system aren't they?

I can't get the colouring-in with IG but get the rough feel of the system Thanks

Spotting the longer term trend on the CCI 10 is rather subjective isn't it, do you use to 200 ma to confirm?

 

[PaulHay]

Difficult trading the London open today. It would appear the guys in the city are a little unsure were they want to these some of these markets. For me, today was about being patient trusting the MA's and cci set ups and waiting for the trade to come.

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Its dead out there.. I know a few of you like cable and eurusd down..

Yes they are setup well for a down move but GOLD is the referee. He brings the ball to the court. Patience but i can see the potential!!!

Good luck in a dead market. Its teasing...

Dan007

 

[FX Pimp]

Well said GJ.

Just need Gold to break $890 or $880 and the games can commence.

Time for a Robusta-Break

 

[danarm]

Hi all

With Crude breaking up, the GOLD rallied which means no down move on EURUSD...

Shows to be patient and follow these commodities for direction.

They are the ball players for the USD. Watch out for Crude figs...

Dan007

 

[FX Pimp]

Well,

A sneaky 63 pips out of cable was my only play of today.
Missed the EURJPY which was a bit unfortunate. No change it rates in Switzerland wasn't taken very well which gave some much needed oompf to USDCHF, which in turn saw EURUSD fall which - with USDJPY still looking offerred - gave a nice little 60 or so pip move south for the EURJPY.

I am a bit mad with the whole correlation thing. I know it keeps me out of a lot of trades but it keeps me out of far more bad ones.

If anyone is thinking 'over-analysis-paralysis', please let me know and I'll keep it to myself in future

Have a great day.

 

[Stuart14]

Keep it going FX Pimp. The more info the better I reckon.

 

[trendie]

good call FXPimp.

do you wait for the pullback on the CCI-20 to take the trade, or just the cross over of CCI-80 over the zero line?

the GBPUSD trade I can see because of the CCI-20 pullback from below zero to above zero while CCI-80 remained over zero.

but the EURJPY trade was a straight move of the CCI-80 above zero; the CCI-20 wasnt really involved in it.

how do you know to wait for the CCI-20 to give the signal in terms of CCI-80 direction, and when to just trade the CCI-80?

 

[danarm]

Good morning all

As you are all aware the market conditions are very challenging at the moment and the lack of direction is causing us to be very hesitant. Every trade is high risk and unclear on direction.

All MA’s are flat and the one day we see USD strength and then the next USD weakness.

I am still waiting for GOLD to break on daily chart… This will show me true direction for the USD and then i can get back into the market. Very important not to react to one candle..Too many were saying its up and then down each 5 minutes. Best to look at the bigger picture and quite clearly it hasnt broken support or resistance… Don’t get dragged into playing if you dont want to…

We had a rumour this am that GBP Retail sales was better than expected and this turned out to be true and a few made 50-60 pips in cable which is great to see… Its high risk palcing before news but sometimes it is viable to place with tight stops…Its how you approach risk and reward that makes you a success.

The CHF got hammered today and EURUSD fell off..Where now i ask??? Stuck in a range to be honest for the EUR…You all know i like it lower and USD strength to come back into play but maybe not this quater…Patience is key…

Many of the Indices traders made money on the retracements in the FTSE… The DAx was played on the downside for 30 pips… Well doen to those.. I still like the Indices a lot lower… I am a bear and a big one!!!Its all about timing…

Ok keep it tight… Watch Crude and Gold for direction…

Dan007

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Anyone get kicked into Gold as discussed earlier today...

With GOLD breaking USD weakness comes into play...

USDCHF and GBPCHF trying to move lower... GBP is trying to stay up against the USD though....Careful

Remember these are in and out trades.. Harsh conditions so be tight with profits.

Cako called EURJPY very well today but stayed out as no other currency pair was moving...However u must not worry if u miss a trade.. Look at the bounce off the 200ma...Thats my 60min 200ma.

Dan007

 

[danarm]

FTSE looks interesting...80 small support... Need DOW to behave through 12,000...

Dan007

 

[danarm]

Hi all



FTSE went well... 50% taken and waiting for rest...



GBPCHF is misbehaving as per usual but USDCHF has support below which is annoying... Patience is key here... Watch CCI's for cross...

Dan007

 

[trendie]

danarm, how come you have FTSE on your WHC platform? How did you get FTSE and DAX?
Mine only shows FX.
I want FTSE and DAX on mine. How?
Have you connected another data-feed by yourself?

 

[SimonRK]

Difficult trading again today.
We paper traded today as we were not sure what direction the dollar is moving. With oil unpredictable especially in the afternoon (hope no one got caught out) and the DJI falling off like it keeps doing, it's very difficult to confidently trade long with the dollar.

Best trades were the USD/CHF long, as it created a higher low on the 15 min chart this morning & moved through the daily 50 M/A for a great long trade.

Later on we spotted a long GOLD trade as it broke through the daily trend line & 50 M/A.

Hopefully Gold will keep out of this broken trend line & stay long for next week. Hopefully we will see direction for a weak dollar & therefore get the direction right for the currencies.

Enjoying working with you all,

Simon.

 

[FX Pimp]

Gold long, FTSE short, GBPUSD long, Crude short !

What a Pimptastic day after a slow start.

Might have a lay-in tomorrow and get all geared-up for the Pimp-Show.

Hear that Cash fella is gonna be getting down and Durti with some Pimpology in the Live Room around 1 ish. I hear the necessities are that you come prepared with sequinned undies, whisky and 1 minute charts.
Sounds like a bit of me !

Good old Gold. Saving the FX world by breaking out. I lookforward to tomorrow. Going for a 500 pip day to make up for a few quiet ones !


Hey Trendie. Open up your market watch (white icon with green/red arrow), then right-click on any pair and select 'show-all'.
Now you can trade 1m Google !! Simply go to file > new chart > indices top > ym for dowjones > fdax for xetradax, es for S&P, nq for NASDAQ.
For thew baddest boy on the block, Crude, go to energies CFD and get the CL chart. Not recommended with anything less than £100 a pip on a 5m timeframe !!! oooooh-yeah !